2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[brihard]

The Liberals move to the right and the CPC move to the left in response to shore up/steal that middle?

I think Carney was first out of the gate rushing back into the centre. CPC have seen the risk and are trying to shore that centrist support up.

Seems like thats the Butts/PMO job description?

I guess? With the JT departure and Carney working to build some distance, I think that’s one of the places you’ll find a crack growing between the old guard and new guard.

 

[Remius]

The Liberals move to the right and the CPC move to the left in response to shore up/steal that middle?

Seems like thats the Butts/PMO job description?

I’m happy to see that this election will be fought for the center.

LPC moving right and CPC moving left. Awesome.

 

[Remius]

I think Carney was first out of the gate rushing back into the centre. CPC have seen the risk and are trying to shore that centrist support up.

They wasted a few years of populist garbage to finally get there…

Carmey saw something they were willing to ignore.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I still can't wrap my head around TVA charging parties for hosting the debate; it's not like they will broadcast it commercial free.

Capitalism: whatever the market'll bear.

... Canadians will still sit there and be like "Yeah but that Pierre guy, we can't let him be elected!" ...

Literally, I feel like it's a mass case of Stockholm Syndrome...

BLUF: Voters can be fickle, no matter who's in the lead at any given time, and "shit happens" applies before, during or after election campaigns.

Well, if you look back at the aggregate polling aaaaaaaalll the way back to 2021 ....

... we see Team Blue generally rising in the polls from when PP was selected leader. Not too many folks around these parts were asking "how can Canadians as a whole vote for this guy?" or "WTF are these people thinking?" Team Blue capitalized on this by ramping up (reasonably successfully, if the polls can be trusted) the "PMJT sucks!" narrative in all sorts of ways, and spending big $ making PP look less personally ornery.

The Blue Climb continued until JT said he'd step down, and Blue's downturn continued after MC took up the torch. In between those two red triangles at the top of the graph, POTUS47 was sworn in, leading to a range of political hilarity involving Canada and a very different political battlefield, like it or not.

The environment changed, and Team Blue's appeal seems to have shrunk if you believe the aggregate #'s. If the same electorate that was so smart choosing PP is assumed to be (at least approximately) as smart now as they were then, what gives?

If a commander is winning a battle, and starts losing when the enemy changes, and outside factors change, do we blame the factors for changing, do we blame the enemy, or do we look at how the commander is or isn't adjusting their battle plan?

Team Blue can't change Carney, and can't change POTUS47. Same pool of Canadians to be convinced seem to be drifting elsewhere. PP & Co. have 34 days (as of this post) or so to convince Canadians they're the best option. They've been convincing before with a different opponent, maybe they should figure out ways to do the same with the one they're facing now, in a different environment.

 

[Remius]

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Today’s aggregate shows a decent increase in seat projection in favour of the LPC.

Seems that momentum is carrying them early in this contest.

 

[GR66]

Capitalism: whatever the market'll bear.

BLUF: Voters can be fickle, no matter who's in the lead at any given time, and "shit happens" applies before, during or after election campaigns.

Well, if you look back at the aggregate polling aaaaaaaalll the way back to 2021 ....
View attachment 92203
... we see Team Blue generally rising in the polls from when PP was selected leader. Not too many folks around these parts were asking "how can Canadians as a whole vote for this guy?" or "WTF are these people thinking?" Team Blue capitalized on this by ramping up (reasonably successfully, if the polls can be trusted) the "PMJT sucks!" narrative in all sorts of ways, and spending big $ making PP look less personally ornery.

The Blue Climb continued until JT said he'd step down, and Blue's downturn continued after MC took up the torch. In between those two red triangles at the top of the graph, POTUS47 was sworn in, leading to a range of political hilarity involving Canada and a very different political battlefield, like it or not.

The environment changed, and Team Blue's appeal seems to have shrunk if you believe the aggregate #'s. If the same electorate that was so smart choosing PP is assumed to be (at least approximately) as smart now as they were then, what gives?

If a commander is winning a battle, and starts losing when the enemy changes, and outside factors change, do we blame the factors for changing, do we blame the enemy, or do we look at how the commander is or isn't adjusting their battle plan?

Team Blue can't change Carney, and can't change POTUS47. Same pool of Canadians to be convinced seem to be drifting elsewhere. PP & Co. have 34 days (as of this post) or so to convince Canadians they're the best option. They've been convincing before with a different opponent, maybe they should figure out ways to do the same with the one they're facing now, in a different environment.

It's a fair question to ask how much of PP's rise after becoming CPC leader was due to people genuinely liking him and his message and wanting him to be PM and how much was simply the fact that as leader of the CPC he was the only realistic alternative to an increasingly unpopular Justin Trudeau? Would ANY CPC leader have increased in popularity to match JT's decline (which is what you see in the chart)?

 

[PuckChaser]

Poilievre will ‘protect’ pharmacare, Carney promises to give soldiers raises, Singh meets tenants. Live election updates here.

It’s Day 3 of the federal election campaign that will end in a vote on April 28. Follow along as CTVNews.ca and CTV News journalists on the campaign trails provides live updates throughout the day.

www.ctvnews.ca

PP saying he will be keeping Pharmacare and Dental Care programs.

I’m sure that will upset a few people that were against those programs.

From a macro economic perspective these are good.

Kinda gets rid of the "cuts, cuts, cuts" boogeyman, but Liberals will just invent another lie. We're likely less than a week away from abortion ban talk.

 

[Remius]

Kinda gets rid of the "cuts, cuts, cuts" boogeyman, but Liberals will just invent another lie. We're likely less than a week away from abortion ban talk.

The CPC haven’t exactly been for those sorts of social programs. And I suspect their traditional base isn’t either. But they aren’t going to lose them. They are looking at the moderates who are leaving them.

The cuts talk will still be a thing until this is decided. Waiting until the 11th hour to stake a claim in the middle may not be enough.

I’m still thinking they can get a minority but so far this has been a bad start for the CPC in the first week. 3 days of being on the defensive and having to “explain” is drowning out their policy announcements.

Still early though.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think if O’Toole or MacKay had won leadership of the CPC, Carney would never have bothered throwing his hat in the ring and the LPC would be headed for a blowout.

Agree. There was a not insignificant number of folks here noting the risk to a more populist approach by CPC for some time, and a decent amount of those lamenting the more PC-like vice Reform/Alliance like persona. It is what it is, at this point.

If a commander is winning a battle, and starts losing when the enemy changes, and outside factors change, do we blame the factors for changing, do we blame the enemy, or do we look at how the commander is or isn't adjusting their battle plan?

If that Commander had neither a sequel plan, nor commensurate branch plans, and failed to ask, let alone answer the key question in conducting The Estimate, “Has (or will) the situation changed?” then they deserve to be relegated to their fate.

 

[Good2Golf]

In general, I’d like to see a minority, where just the NDP (and/or Bloc, tbh) aren’t enough to secure confidence of the House.

 

[brihard]

Wow, that Leger poll and today’s 338 swing are heavy. This basically brings the aggregate projections right up to the day of campaign launch. From here on in we’ll begin to see campaign impacts.

Are we seeing the LPC doing a little bit of a (pre-Seppuku) British Columbia Liberals swing, sort of shifting centre to catch the traditional Progressive Conservative turf? Not to suggest they’re ceding the left to the NDP, but sure as hell they’re eating some Conservative lunch, and we see the CPC pivoting hard and fast towards at least acceptance of some LPC positions.

5 weeks of hot and heavy bullshit to come… Next big thing on the radar should be whatever actually ends up happening with the 2 April tariffs.

 

[HavokFour]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-security-clearance-india-1.7492527

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/canada-election-poilievre-says-liberals-want-to-keep-me-from-speaking-freely-with-security-clearance-9.6697272

I am in absolute awe that he still refuses, even now. Is Poilievre campaigning to continue being Opposition or does he actually have something he wants to hide?

 

[Czech_pivo]

I’m happy to see that this election will be fought for the center.

LPC moving right and CPC moving left. Awesome.

The thing is, I feel that PP has stolen a significant chunk from the NDP right/centre, not the Liberal centre or Liberal right. Carney is actively stealing from the Conservative left (the old remaining PC's) and maybe some of the centre from the Conservatives. It's crazy really.

 

[suffolkowner]

Capitalism: whatever the market'll bear.

BLUF: Voters can be fickle, no matter who's in the lead at any given time, and "shit happens" applies before, during or after election campaigns.

Well, if you look back at the aggregate polling aaaaaaaalll the way back to 2021 ....
View attachment 92203
... we see Team Blue generally rising in the polls from when PP was selected leader. Not too many folks around these parts were asking "how can Canadians as a whole vote for this guy?" or "WTF are these people thinking?" Team Blue capitalized on this by ramping up (reasonably successfully, if the polls can be trusted) the "PMJT sucks!" narrative in all sorts of ways, and spending big $ making PP look less personally ornery.

The Blue Climb continued until JT said he'd step down, and Blue's downturn continued after MC took up the torch. In between those two red triangles at the top of the graph, POTUS47 was sworn in, leading to a range of political hilarity involving Canada and a very different political battlefield, like it or not.

The environment changed, and Team Blue's appeal seems to have shrunk if you believe the aggregate #'s. If the same electorate that was so smart choosing PP is assumed to be (at least approximately) as smart now as they were then, what gives?

If a commander is winning a battle, and starts losing when the enemy changes, and outside factors change, do we blame the factors for changing, do we blame the enemy, or do we look at how the commander is or isn't adjusting their battle plan?

Team Blue can't change Carney, and can't change POTUS47. Same pool of Canadians to be convinced seem to be drifting elsewhere. PP & Co. have 34 days (as of this post) or so to convince Canadians they're the best option. They've been convincing before with a different opponent, maybe they should figure out ways to do the same with the one they're facing now, in a different environment.

theres a Liberal rebound before Trumps inauguration and Trudeaus resignation but the CPC seems to peak then

 

[Lumber]

They've been convincing before with a different opponent, maybe they should figure out ways to do the same with the one they're facing now, in a different environment.

Were they though? Or were they just "not Trudeau"?

 

[Remius]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-security-clearance-india-1.7492527

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/canada-election-poilievre-says-liberals-want-to-keep-me-from-speaking-freely-with-security-clearance-9.6697272

I am in absolute awe that he still refuses, even now. Is Poilievre campaigning to continue being Opposition or does he actually have something he wants to hide?

I think it was Rosemary Barton who said at this point it’s strange not to get it. Coined as possibly political stubbornness.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Were they though? Or were they just "not Trudeau"?

It's a fair question to ask how much of PP's rise after becoming CPC leader was due to people genuinely liking him and his message and wanting him to be PM and how much was simply the fact that as leader of the CPC he was the only realistic alternative to an increasingly unpopular Justin Trudeau? Would ANY CPC leader have increased in popularity to match JT's decline (which is what you see in the chart)?

Fair point in both cases, but as far as potential ballots cast, same thing at that point in time, no?

... I am in absolute awe that he still refuses, even now. Is Poilievre campaigning to continue being Opposition or does he actually have something he wants to hide?

According to the latest G&M article, his Chief of Staff knows what was up. Is that enough? We'll see ...

 

[Eaglelord17]

There's a lot of hand wringing over how a great many Canadians are somehow still looking at the Liberals as a valid option to govern the country after the disaster that has been Justin Trudeau, but there should equally be a great deal of questioning as why more Canadians are not seeing the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre as the preferable alternative. It's not like we haven't had extended periods of Conservative support during the Mulroney and Harper years. It's not like there is a lack of Liberal policy failings to point to. Why then is Pierre Poilievere not able to connect with more Canadians?

Some here I'm sure will say it's because Canadian voters are "stupid", "ignorant" or "naive" but I think that's a pretty trite and dismissive answer. The Conservatives have had years of declining support for the Liberal government and its policies to "sow the seeds" for a Conservative return to power but have somehow failed. Is it the leader? The message? The "Trump factor"?

Maybe their ads were too effective. They very successfully tied the state of Canada to Trudeau. Now that Trudeau is out of the picture that problem is ‘resolved’.

Add in a unpopular leader (I never liked Poilievre, the main people he appealed to were never swing voters) and things change.

The Liberals are also successfully tying the Conservatives to the Republicans despite their policies being basically the Democrat playbook. The ‘Maple Maga’ moniker is sticking.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If Trudeau has in fact had such an iron grip on the party over his tenure - a claim many here have made, with a lot of truth to it - does that not logically mean that his resignation from PM and the selection of a new leader, particularly one not coming from within the existing cabinet, is in a position to do some considerable steering of the party’s direction?

A lot of choice words have been used to describe Trudeau, some focusing on how tightly PMO has controlled the party. If he had that control when he was PM, and if he’s no longer PM, that should necessarily mean there’s a considerable redistribution of power and influence within the party. Carney certainly hasn’t seemed shy to grab the wheel and change course.

Power also has to depend on allies for enforcement. If people can ignore the PMO without peer-shaming or in fact with support, the PMO means less. We should want it that way.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Not campaign altering but funny

https://twitter.com/x/status/1904525388786618637