2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Brad Sallows]

Trying to pin Carney as a significant advisor is a dead end. There are always people right in the PMO who have orders of magnitude of greater influence.

What's absurd is that we still have a system of government in which the convention for selecting a PM hasn't been replaced by hard constitutional rules (eg. must be a sitting elected MP chosen by MPs, or must be directly elected). The powers of the PM to run the show, irrespective of whose chirping he listens to, are too vast. If chatterers are going to continue braying about the importance of democratic institutions, the office of the PM (and everything else about the structure and system that exists by mere "convention") must be overhauled.

The guy who just effectively called a federal election and is "negotiating" in this time of supposed great crisis wasn't even chosen by electors of a riding. That's quite f*cked up.

 

[Quirky]

Tangentially, I'd like to see some stats on the effectiveness of election signs... my guess is they're not as effective as social media etc.

Considering our current climate crisis, I wonder how much material (wood, plastics, etc) those signs waste only to be put in landfills. Unless they recycle signs....

 

[Eaglelord17]

Trying to pin Carney as a significant advisor is a dead end. There are always people right in the PMO who have orders of magnitude of greater influence.

What's absurd is that we still have a system of government in which the convention for selecting a PM hasn't been replaced by hard constitutional rules (eg. must be a sitting elected MP chosen by MPs, or must be directly elected). The powers of the PM to run the show, irrespective of whose chirping he listens to, are too vast. If chatterers are going to continue braying about the importance of democratic institutions, the office of the PM (and everything else about the structure and system that exists by mere "convention") must be overhauled.

The guy who just effectively called a federal election and is "negotiating" in this time of supposed great crisis wasn't even chosen by electors of a riding. That's quite f*cked up.

They generally aren’t the PMs powers.

Our Senate, GG and the Crown give up their powers to the PM, they could stop any PM in their tracks if they so wanted to. Our issue isn’t necessarily our PM having to much power, it’s the other checks and balances refusing to act as such.

 

[GR66]

Considering our current climate crisis, I wonder how much material (wood, plastics, etc) those signs waste only to be put in landfills. Unless they recycle signs....

For the corrugated plastic ones at least most candidates try to retrieve them after the election for re-use in the next election to save money. At least that was the case when I worked campaigns many moons ago. There was a sign team that tracked where signs were put up and was tasked to pick them back up after the election.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Carney teaches staffers a hard lesson here.

Carney apologizes for fake Trump-style buttons, Liberal staffers 'reassigned'​

 

[MilEME09]

Carney released his plan to modernize defense procurement. Ill give the liberals one thing, they have released more of their platform then the CPC leading upto the debates so far

https://twitter.com/x/status/1911791884600590811

 

[Jarnhamar]

Carney released his plan to modernize defense procurement. Ill give the liberals one thing, they have released more of their platform then the CPC leading upto the debates so far

https://twitter.com/x/status/1911791884600590811

Liberal Leader Mark Carney is promising his government would change the way the government purchases military equipment and build up domestic research on advanced military technology.

Where can I find the actual plan to fix it?

 

[daftandbarmy]

Where can I find the actual plan to fix it?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Liberals: OMG the Conservatives are acting like Trump! That's bad

Conservatives: fail to act like Trump

Liberals: Well we're just going to do our best to make Conservatives seem more like Trump.

Liberals say staff 'regrettably got carried away' with button stunt​

-relax it's just a joke. It's not a big deal
-it wasn't all our fault
-okay butwhatabout Conservatives?!

Thx for that - more here:

WEEKEND RECAP: Liberals say staff 'regrettably got carried away' with button stunt

Follow the Toronto Sun’s live coverage of Canada’s 45th general election and tariff-related news, with contributions from Brian Lilley, Bryan Passifiume, Lorrie Goldstein and columnists Joe Warmington and Warren Kinsella, as well as contributions from the Sun’s editors and reporters covering the...

ca.news.yahoo.com

'Stop the Steal' buttons at conservative meet-up a Liberal disinformation campaign

Liberal plan to plant contentious flair at annual conservative conference unravelled after campaign workers bragged about plan at Ottawa bar

ca.news.yahoo.com

The anal, pedantic wordsmith in me sees the dial being pretty low (depending on how accurate the yellow paraphrase is) on the "denial" scale. This from the second link above:

... In a statement, a Liberal party spokesperson said that “many materials being shown online” have nothing to do with members of the Liberal team, and that the party acted quickly to resolve” the matter.

“After many news reports last week about conservative infighting and prominent Trump allies being hosted at this Canadian conservative conference, it’s been reported that Liberal campaigners had created buttons poking fun at those reports — which regrettably got carried away,” the statement continued.

“As leader, Mark Carney has also made it clear to the campaign that this does not fit his commitment to serious and positive discourse.” ...

As for this ....

Carney teaches staffers a hard lesson here.

Carney apologizes for fake Trump-style buttons, Liberal staffers 'reassigned'​

Un-fucking-acceptable

Or are they going to be allowed to resign next?

 

[Quirky]

Carney released his plan to modernize defense procurement. Ill give the liberals one thing, they have released more of their platform then the CPC leading upto the debates so far

The proof is in the pudding. Promises have been made before and ultimately broken. You'd think after 10 years of the same LPC government people would wake up. Guess not....

 

[Halifax Tar]

The proof is in the pudding. Promises have been made before and ultimately broken. You'd think after 10 years of the same LPC government people would wake up. Guess not....

The latest Mainstreet poll has the CPC in the lead again...

Polls continue to poll. Only one of them counts and that one is only conducted by Elections Canada.

 

[MilEME09]

The proof is in the pudding. Promises have been made before and ultimately broken. You'd think after 10 years of the same LPC government people would wake up. Guess not....

same can be said about the CPC, but right now we have promises vs silence, as a voter, the party actually telling me what they are going to do has my attention more then the party spending more time telling the other guy is bad but wont tell me why i should vote for them other than "liberals bad vote for us"

 

[Jarnhamar]

same can be said about the CPC, but right now we have promises vs silence, as a voter, the pary actually telling me what they are going to do has my attention more then the party spending more time telling the other guy is bad but wont tell me why i should vote for them other than "liberals bad vote for us"

I was having a hard time loading the tweet you posted.

Is the plan you're speaking about contained within that tweet and it's just not loading for me?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Signs - The Five Man Electrical Band 1971

One study (from 2011) suggests that they have some value. They may not change opinions, but they can increase name familiarity.

Why tech-savvy political candidates still need old-fashioned yard signs

A Vanderbilt political science study offers fairly conclusive evidence that, in low-information races, a candidate’s name recognition alone positively affects voter support.

news.vanderbilt.edu

Good catch - a couple of summaries lazy-found via Chat GPT & Grok ...

Research indicates that while campaign lawn signs can have a modest impact on vote shares, their effectiveness as predictors of voting intentions or election outcomes is limited.

Impact of Lawn Signs on Vote Outcomes​

A 2016 study by Green et al. conducted four randomized field experiments across various electoral contexts, including congressional, mayoral, gubernatorial, and county commissioner races. The findings revealed that placing lawn signs in randomly selected precincts led to an average increase of approximately 1.7 percentage points in the vote share for the advertised candidates. Additionally, there was evidence of a spillover effect, where adjacent precincts without signs also experienced a slight uptick in vote share for those candidates .ResearchGate+1alexandercoppock.com+1alexandercoppock.com

These results suggest that lawn signs can serve as a low-cost method to enhance candidate visibility and name recognition, particularly in local or low-salience elections.alexandercoppock.com+1ResearchGate+1

Limitations as Predictive Tools​

Despite their visibility, lawn signs are not reliable indicators of broader voting intentions or election outcomes. Political scientist Mel Kahn noted that while each sign might represent 6–10 votes, this is more anecdotal than empirical. Moreover, seasoned campaign organizers often view the distribution of lawn signs as less effective compared to other voter engagement strategies, such as door-to-door canvassing or phone banking .WikipediaWikipedia

The presence of lawn signs may reflect the enthusiasm of a candidate's existing supporters rather than sway undecided voters. Therefore, while they contribute to a candidate's visibility, they should not be solely relied upon to gauge electoral success.alexandercoppock.com+1ResearchGate+1

Conclusion​

In summary, campaign lawn signs can modestly increase a candidate's vote share by enhancing visibility and name recognition. However, their distribution is not a definitive predictor of voting intentions or election results. For a more accurate assessment of electoral outcomes, it's advisable to consider a combination of factors, including polling data, voter turnout efforts, and other campaign strategies.ResearchGate+1

... Indicator of Existing Support
Research by Janet Brown and Duane Bratt in Canada (2015 federal election) suggests that the number of lawn signs in a riding can reflect voter preferences and predict outcomes in competitive races. Their observational study in Calgary Centre found that a higher density of signs for a candidate (Kent Hehr) correlated with an upset victory over the incumbent. However, they caution that signs on private property are a stronger indicator of support than those on public land, and their influence on undecided voters remains unclear. This implies signs may mirror committed voters rather than shift intentions broadly.

Citation: Brown, J., & Bratt, D. (2019). CBC Radio interview summarizing their findings. https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-462-predicting-elections-with-lawn-signs-hong-kong-protests-at-nba-games-breaking-bad-s-legacy-and-more-1.5315649/why-researchers-say-lawn-signs-could-help-predict-election-results-1.5315659[URL]https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/election-signs-nba-fan-protest-impeach-o-meter-breaking-bad-donuts-mashrou-leila-and-more-1.5316793/why-researchers-say-lawn-signs-could-help-predict-election-results-1.5316808

(...)
[/URL]
Canadian Context: Vote Share Increase
A Canadian study examining Green Party campaigns found that household signs were associated with a 1.5–3.4% increase in vote share, with each sign per 100 registered electors linked to a 0.5–1.5% boost. The study suggests diminishing returns at higher sign densities and emphasizes that signs reflect active campaign efforts by non-governing parties, aligning with voter support rather than necessarily causing it.

Citation: Farrer, B. D. (2018). The effects of lawn signs on vote outcomes: Results from four randomized field experiments (Canadian data included). Academia.edu. https://www.academia.edu/36660596/The_effects_of_lawn_signs_on_vote_outcomes_Results_from_four_randomized_field_experiments[URL]https://www.academia.edu/36718711/The_effects_of_lawn_signs_on_vote_outcomes_Results_from_four_randomized_field_experiments

(...)[/URL]

Conclusion

Campaign lawn signs are a weak but measurable indicator of voting intention and results, best reflecting existing support and boosting name recognition in close or local races. Their distribution can signal momentum, but their ability to change minds is minimal compared to other campaign tactics. For precise prediction, signs should be considered alongside other data like polls or turnout patterns.

 

[MilEME09]

I was having a hard time loading the tweet you posted.

Is the plan you're speaking about contained within that tweet and it's just not loading for me?

summed up within, ill post the lpc press release once its out

 

[CBH99]

If I do nothing else over the next 2 weeks it will be to address this argument.

Carney was not "Trudeau's advisor for the last 5 years". In 2020, he was one of many "informal" advisors to Trudeau on Canada's economic response to COVID-19. His next stint "with" the LPC was in 2024 when he joined the Liberal task force on economic growth, which was a Liberal party organization, not a PMO organization. In between (and basically also at the same time) he was keeping himself very busy as the chair, board member, and/or advisor to/with lots of different organizations.

Ergo, Carney was in no way one of Trudeau's advisors with so much input and sway that we can pin the last 5 years on him. He wasn't deciding or implementing policy. The policies of the last 5 years are that of Trudeau, his PMO, and his cabinet.

Fair points.

I guess I'm back to grumbling about Freeland & Trudeau...

 

[Jarnhamar]

summed up within, ill post the lpc press release once its out

All good dude. I got it to work.

 

[MilEME09]

Mark Carney announces further measures to secure Canadian sovereignty | Liberal Party of Canada

This election comes at a time of crisis. With President Trump threatening our economy and sovereignty, we need to secure Canada by supporting our businesses and industry here at home, and helping them diversify to new markets.

liberal.ca

pay raise for CAF and housing plan for bases

 

[Good2Golf]

Carney teaches staffers a hard lesson here.

Carney apologizes for fake Trump-style buttons, Liberal staffers 'reassigned'​

They got Buttsted!

 

[brihard]

Mark Carney announces further measures to secure Canadian sovereignty | Liberal Party of Canada

This election comes at a time of crisis. With President Trump threatening our economy and sovereignty, we need to secure Canada by supporting our businesses and industry here at home, and helping them diversify to new markets.

liberal.ca

pay raise for CAF and housing plan for bases

Ok, all in all that’s some encouraging defense policy proposals. I very much like the part about improving self reliance for critical materials and minerals. The quality of life stuff is good too; I’ve been mentioning military housing as a strategic imperative for a while now.