2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Remius]

So, if the Liberals win (seems likely), are they just going to double down on rewarding their constituencies (government employees; boomers)?

Why would you think that the government employees are a significant constituency? Outside the Ottawa bubble are there many places that would have things in play?

Also doubling down. What is the current reward to double down on? Both parties have indicated they will shrink the public service. WFA is essentially underway and cuts have already started. No one I talk to is under the illusion that they are going to avoid any of that with one government or another.

Or will they moderate under Carney and actual consider helping both under 30 year olds and rural Canadians, who are absolutely getting smoked?

The platform seems to have some things to address that. Will they act on it is a different story.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The pre-existing Reform/Alliance is part of it yes. But I believe there's also a significant "PPP" (Pro Pierre Poilevre) element that has been cultivated and groomed via social media, that amounts to a wholly new "faction" of the party, separate from the traditional Reform / PC camps. It's not a perfect heuristic- but let's use "Members who supported Peter Mackay in 2020" as a proxy for the PC wing. That number is/was just shy of 53k. Poilievre signed up 300k members and won every single riding outside of Quebec- and has likely grown his support in the 3 years since (if my rural Ontario social media feed is any indication), + shown a tremendous ability to fundraise from this group, get this group out to rallies, etc.

If he can keep them mobilized / on side the PPP + R/A camps absolutely dwarf the traditional PC camp. Absent an immediate caucus revolt, there will be a span of months between the election and the mandatory review/vote at the national convention. Months where he'll have control of the communications apparatus, and the party warchest at his disposal, presumably with Byrne running around in the background. That's an uphill battle for Ford/other challengers to wrest control of the necessary delegates to even trigger a leadership contest.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the CPC grabbed a populist tiger by the tail and is now along for the ride.

If this is the case (and it sounds plausible), then the PP CPC becomes a slightly amped version of the NDP or Greens- a protest/grievance Party, run for the entertainment of the members of the party, destined never to govern. In fact, governing isn’t even the goal anymore.

Which leaves the Liberals as a uniparty- unchallenged for power; so a slide into decadence and corruption is all but guaranteed, over time (see, also various iterations of Alberta Provincial Conservatives).

I am soooo optimistic about the future of Canada…

 

[JLB50]

If that’s the case, then I don’t think the CPC will ever get to a 25+ point lead ever again…

If the CPC could shed itself of the far right elements and get closer to its originally near-centre position then it could once again be a serious political power.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If the CPC could shed itself of the far right elements and get closer to its originally near-centre position then it could once again be a serious political power.

I think that is the suggested problem- the CPC has been captured and has effectively ejected their moderates. There is no one left/no desire to change.

 

[IKnowNothing]

If that’s the case, then I don’t think the CPC will ever get to a 25+ point lead ever again…

If this is the case (and it sounds plausible), then the PP CPC becomes a slightly amped version of the NDP or Greens- a protest/grievance Party, run for the entertainment of the members of the party, destined never to govern. In fact, governing isn’t even the goal anymore.

Which leaves the Liberals as a uniparty- unchallenged for power; so a slide into decadence and corruption is all but guaranteed, over time (see, also various iterations of Alberta Provincial Conservatives).

I am soooo optimistic about the future of Canada…

To be clear, I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and that if (election is not until Monday) the LPC wins:
-it's a minority
-Poilievre gracefully resigns
-the CPC pulls a rabbit out of it's ass and finds an interim leader with the force of will to pull the party back to the center and effectively influence the governance of the nation by maturely working across the aisle, and the membership has the collective sense to elect a leader that carries that torch

But if the other comes true and the PP clings to power and the CPC effectively becomes the (C)Poilievre Party of Canada-
If Carney governs well over the next 4 years- the bolded is the likely outcome* If Carney flops- a vindicated PP with 4 more years of rage bait could make serious hay and lead a resurgent CPC

*Though "What happens if a Doug Ford that was denied the chance to run for leader throws his weight behind the CFP and recruits some sitting CPC MP's to defect" is an interesting thought experiment

 

[Good2Golf]

To be clear, I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and that if (election is not until Monday) the LPC wins:
-it's a minority
-Poilievre gracefully resigns
-the CPC pulls a rabbit out of it's ass and finds an interim leader with the force of will to pull the party back to the center and effectively influence the governance of the nation by maturely working across the aisle, and the membership has the collective sense to elect a leader that carries that torch

But if the other comes true and the PP clings to power and the CPC effectively becomes the Canadian Poilievre Party-
If Carney governs well over the next 4 years- the bolded is the likely outcome* If he doesn't- a vindicated PP with 4 more years of rage bait could make serious hay and lead a resurgent CPC

*Though "What happens if a Doug Ford that was denied the chance to run for leader throws his weight behind the CFP and recruits some sitting CPC MP's to defect" is an interesting thought experiment

If the CPC is beyond redemption, then at least a principled growth of the CFP to offset the Liberal Chairman PM of the day in the late-2030s would be a place for any central types to hang their hats…

 

[Remius]

If the CPC is beyond redemption, then at least a principled growth of the CFP to offset the Liberal Chairman PM of the day in the late-2030s would be a place for any central types to hang their hats…

I have 4 years to retirement give or take. Volunteering with that party would be something I would consider around that time.

 

[IKnowNothing]

If the CPC is beyond redemption, then at least a principled growth of the CFP to offset the Liberal Chairman PM of the day in the late-2030s would be a place for any central types to hang their hats…

Hot take for the thought experiment. IF we see a Carney minority and Poilievre stave off a leadership contest + double down, things move much faster than that, CFP MP's by mid 2026.
-existing party apparatus
-Ford with name value
-disenfranchised and muzzled CPC MP's

Not hard to see a movement strike hard and fast to make their names on stealing kingmaker status from the bloc/NDP and be seen actually having an impact on policy

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This is the second or third time I've seen different people make this particular accusation.
Another checkmark on the carney chalkboard of untruths
You have to admire the extreme chutzpah of someone that looks millions of people in the eye and lies to them on a near daily basis, then asks you to trust him.
Especially when his false narrative is so easily factchecked. Does he care that he's lying to you? Or is he just delusional and doesn’t realise he's doing it?

How much of his platform sits on the untrue side of his narrative?
Given his lifelong stance on environment, finances, trade, etc, compared to what he's pushing now, his recent epiphanies seem more than suspect.

27K views · 2.1K reactions | Mock Carney for lying | Why do you think Mark Carney lied about this? 🤔 | By Canada Proud | Facebook

Why do you think Mark Carney lied about this? 🤔

www.facebook.com

Compulsive Liars Versus Pathological Liars: What’s the Difference?

Learn what it means to be a compulsive liar or a pathological liar, and how to tell the difference between the two.

www.everydayhealth.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If the CPC is beyond redemption, then at least a principled growth of the CFP to offset the Liberal Chairman PM of the day in the late-2030s would be a place for any central types to hang their hats…

Do you think we have that long? If this government perseveres, I think we'll be well into the shitlocker by then.

I don’t care how they do it, but we need a major disrupter to pause the liberal march and let Canadians breathe for a spell.

 

[IKnowNothing]

You have to admire the extreme chutzpah of someone that looks millions of people in the eye and lies to them on a near daily basis, then asks you to trust him.
Especially when his false narrative is so easily factchecked.

You mean like taking a thought experiment from a task group of ESDC and selling it to the masses as a dire prediction made at the highest level of government?

 

[QV]

Every analysis in this thread dies after statements like: "bring CPC back to the centre".

The CPC has not moved to the right and is not a right wing party. The CPC has shifted left from it's historical stance. Your views on this are skewed by the breakneck pace the LPC had lurched to the left in the last decade.

 

[Good2Golf]

Do you think we have that long? If this government perseveres, I think we'll be well into the shitlocker by then.

I don’t care how they do it, but we need a major disrupter to pause the liberal march and let Canadians breathe for a spell.

I haven’t committed to learning Mandarin just yet, but I don’t think Canada will be winning any productivity and GDP growth awards for the foreseeable future.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Every analysis in this thread dies after statements like: "bring CPC back to the centre".

The CPC has not moved to the right and is not a right wing party. The CPC has shifted left from it's historical stance. Your views on this are skewed by the breakneck pace the LPC had lurched to the left in the last decade.

There's also the constant talk about Conservatives losing ground.

However, I don't think I've seen anything in the drop in liberal fortunes over the same period or that fact they have dropped to an even percentage with the CPC.

 

[Lumber]

There's another hypothetical outcome from a LPC win and CPC fracture that people haven't mentioned.

Everyone is assuming that if the CPC fractures, it will a sort of rebirth of the PC and Reform/Alliance parties.

However, look at the fanfare that is growing in the west with regard to separation.

And so, another hypothetical outcome would no be a fracturing of the CPC into the PC and Reform parties, but a fracturing into the CPC/PC party and "Le Bloc Occidentale".

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I haven’t committed to learning Mandarin just yet, but I don’t think Canada will be winning any productivity and GDP growth awards for the foreseeable future.

Yup.. the Soylant Green scenario is becoming more of a reality every day.

 

[daftandbarmy]

One of many similar (dire) reports on poor productivity enters the chat....

From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem​

Highlights​

• If Canada does not play to win on labour productivity, it risks a continued drop in living standards, worsening wage stagnation and a dangerous deterioration in public services.
• The pronounced downshift in labour productivity since the pandemic has manifested in most industries.
• The goods-producing sector accounts for the lion’s share. In a turn of fortune, a decade-long outperformance in productivity is now marred by a 1.2% average annual decline since 2019. More goods sector workers are required just to produce the same level of output.
• Among industries, construction is the worst of the lot with labour productivity at a near 30-year low.
• Construction’s deepening presence will keep Canada on its backfoot relative to peers in the absence of greater innovation adoption and a reshaping of the industry.
• Canada’s service sector has also slowed, but to a lesser degree. Compared to the U.S., most major industries severely lag.

From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem

From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem

economics.td.com

 

[Lumber]

That's good. He's been a pretty solid premier.

I think @Lumber will agree with me that I think he would be a great Fed leader. He might lack national name recognition though...

I'm just not sure what party he would run for. He's an old school NS PC.

I actually told my wife that if she wanted to put a Liberal sign on our lawn, then she had to let me put a sign next to it that read "We still love you Tim!".

I think Tim is great; best Premier I've ever lived under, but I'm not sure he has the chops for federal politics. He wouldn't be a bad leader, but I don't think he would win a nomination; he'd get eaten alive by the socially conservative wing of the party.

 

[kratz]

One metric from our riding here....in 2021, the Conservative candidate had 800 political lawn signs and won with 46% of the vote to 32% of the LPC.
Currently, the Incumbent Conservative candidate has had over 1500 requests for lawn signs, with over 20% of eligible votes cast in early voting.

As others have mentioned. People don't tend to vote en msasse, unless they want to see change. Research polls ect...are a snapshot in time, and many of the questions I have read have been leading to one party or another, bring the polling process into question.

 

[RangerRay]

I’m starting to think the problem with the CPC is not ideological. In other words, it’s not that they moved too far right, etc.

They have succumbed to something far more common to all parties: they’re more interested in messaging than governing, hence they don’t come across as serious to people not already in their tent. Parties are incentivized by social media and partisan media to gin up their respective bases than expanding their tents. Normal persuadable voters are left to decide which clown car looks less like a clown car and hope for the best. At the moment, despite 10 years of clown-car government, the Liberals are looking less so than the Tories because of their new leader, and the clown-car government to the south of us running through a meth lab with flamethrowers.

The nonsense coming from Poilievre about “wokeness” and other dumb stuff isn’t about ideology. It’s about getting the most base supporters fired up. The Liberals do the same when they fire up the outrage bus about guns and abortion. Both do it to hide that they aren’t offering up anything substantive.