2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[IKnowNothing]

If this election is lost by her, she won’t have much influence after it. She’ll be exiled for good after this.

If Poilievre steps down.

Interesting what if- "What if Jenni Byrne stays exiled and Poilievre has a less dogmatic/extreme voice in his in ear?"

 

[Eaglelord17]

I suspect that is solely based on the lens of the beholder.

Quebec has time and time again opted for self interest over Canadian national interest.
Again how you read it is different than I or others.

I see Quebec's veto as divisional, and something that the Federal Government should overrule for the betterment of all Canadians.

Except thanks to our desire for bilingualism at the upper echelons of everything, our government apparatus tends to favour Quebec.

Military, government, civil service, etc. if you can’t speak both languages you hit the glass ceiling. That makes it much harder for the majority of Canadians to break into those positions of power and allows a few regions to exert substantially more influence than others.

When Trudeau et all where talking about Canada not having a culture, what they were really saying is we reject British Canadian culture, and support Quebecs regional one.

 

[The Bread Guy]

let the battle begin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915741073596469750

The NSPCs and CPC are not the same party.

See also "Ontario Conservatives"

... Interesting what if- "What if Jenni Byrne stays exiled and Poilievre has a less dogmatic/extreme voice in his in ear?"

While JB strikes me as (almost manically) ruthless in her political instincts & approach, my feel (never met the man - I guess our ridings aren't likely to be flipped given he hasn't visited this campaign season) is that PP is more hard-wired than advised to be on the more extreme/dogmatic end of the spectrum. He's good at and seems to like the attack dog persona.

I'd also bet a loonie that if Team Blue loses, PP'll have a very hard time staying on, JB or not.

 

[Remius]

let the battle begin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915741073596469750

And some more detail…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/houston-poilievre-election-1.7518196

 

[OldSolduer]

Except thanks to our desire for bilingualism at the upper echelons of everything, our government apparatus tends to favour Quebec.

Including becoming Captain of the Montreal Canadiens. I can't remember who the player was - Mike Keene I think- was absolutely crucified by the Quebec media for saying he did not think it was required for him to speak French - because all them could understand English. It ended his career in Montreal.

 

[IKnowNothing]

While JB strikes me as (almost manically) ruthless in her political instincts & approach, my feel (never met the man - I guess our ridings aren't likely to be flipped given he hasn't visited this campaign season) is that PP is more hard-wired than advised to be on the more extreme/dogmatic end of the spectrum. He's good at and seems to like the attack dog persona.

The more I read about and pay attention to JB, the more the lack of detail in the platform and foibles like that seem like a feature rather a bug. The woman seems to have a disdain bordering on hatred for anyone with white collar expertise or knowledge that isn't lending it to her cause. Dogmatic is exactly the right word, because she doesn't see the likes of Ford/Houston/ generic PC leaning voters as enemies- she sees us heretics to True Conservatism as defined by her. (see crusade against O'Toole).

Now- signs point to PP leaning that way as well. Maybe he carries that torch to the same degree, maybe not. Either way- having the two of them feeding off each other without a moderating voice in the room explains a lot about the decisions the party is making with this campaign. Between the Wells piece on PP and the Maclean's on JB a lot has clicked into place for me.

 

[Good2Golf]

The NSPCs and CPC are not the same party.

See also "Ontario Conservatives"

No one else is like the CPC, it seems.

Apparently the CPC policy for interactions with provincial PC governments in its current form…


Edit to add:

Waiting for…

 

[The Bread Guy]

... (see crusade against O'Toole) ...

As a naive old-fashioned fart, I was particularly wowed by her sharp poke at the former leader for wishing someone on the opposing team all the best down the road. That told me all I needed to know about her approach - and her boss letting her continue to take that approach.

... Now- signs point to PP leaning that way as well. Maybe he carries that torch to the same degree, maybe not. Either way- having the two of them feeding off each other without a moderating voice in the room explains a lot about the decisions the party is making with this campaign ...

That CAN create quite a thickly-walled silo, for sure.

Between the Wells piece on PP and the Maclean's on JB a lot has clicked into place for me.

Thanks for the ref's - will be reading them this afternoon.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Thanks for the ref's - will be reading them this afternoon.

It was actually two Well's articles + the Maclean's piece

https://macleans.ca/longforms/jenni-byrnes-big-gamble/

Why Poilievre Is Always Looking for a Fight | The Walrus

The man who plans to become prime minister by making enemies

thewalrus.ca

Poilievre Bragged That He Has Never Changed His Mind. That’s the Problem | The Walrus

The ground beneath the country has shifted, but he hasn’t moved an inch

thewalrus.ca

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I bitch and moan a lot about the liberal party, it's my democratic right. When they take power I swallow it and continue my life as a lawful Canadian. I pay my taxes, gave 37 years of military service under various governments, worked really hard for what I have and thankfully will have an estate that leaves my family, hopefully, ahead of the game. I don't ask my government for much. Just a chance to enjoy my hunting, fishing and shooting hobbies. Our current government has already threatened two of those by restricting my ability to own firearms. Not for any physical or societal reason, but strictly an idealogical bent to control society and the individual without any scientific or moral reason other than what they want for themselves. However, we've beat that to death here.

The current government, besides stealing my guns, will now mandate my movement around the continent. Increased fuel taxes on rail, air and gas powered vehicles to stymie normal people from making travel affordable.

Now they intend to force me into their choice of vehicle. Their net zero green plan designed by two climate zealots, Carney and Guilbeault, will see the end of sales of gas and diesel vehicles in ten years. Everything sold with be mandated electric vehicles. A technology, currently rife with problems.

Under their (trudeau's) plan, if elected, they will mandate the sale of electric vehicles. 20% of all vehicles sold next year must be electric. In ten years, by 35, 100% of vehicles sold will be electric.

I don't want an electric vehicle. It will put the final nail in the coffin of my leisure activities. I do not like to be told what to do with the meager amount of cash the government leaves me in my pocket. I do not like that politicians from the liberal party will be making fortunes off the back end of the initiatives and products. I do not like that my tax dollars will go to the inevitable rebates collected by people that are already rich enough to purchase an electric vehicle. I do not like that green zealots have stolen my country and left me without a voice or choice. I do not like that it will curtail much of personal travel leaving Canadians trapped in their prefab, 15 minute cities.

I hope all those that bow down to King Carney and his court jester Guilbeault are happy with their mandated, glorified golf carts.

Lorne Gunter: Poilievre's promise to kill EV mandate a good first step to counter Liberal eco-zealotry​

Lorne Gunter: Poilievre's promise to kill EV mandate a good first step to counter Liberal eco-zealotry

Ending the mandate that within a decade Canadian will only be able to buy EVs is welcome, even if Poilievre doesn't end industry subsidies.

edmontonjournal.com

 

[MilEME09]

Under their (trudeau's) plan, if elected, they will mandate the sale of electric vehicles. 20% of all vehicles sold next year must be electric. In ten years, by 35, 100% of vehicles sold will be electric.

It is not 100% of all vehicles, its light duty vehicles, which is specific definition of under 10,000 lbs weight, also being the wording also specifically says the transportation sector, we are talking commercial sales, not consumer sales. Big difference.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Everyone knows my opinion of polls. However, we've been welded to the results published by the aggregate 338Canada.

While bumbling around the webz this morn, I came across some polls on Yahoo News. They are much more pointed in their questions. What is interesting though, is that they are voluntary, open to anyone and not defined by an audience chosen by a polling firm.

What is the most interesting though is that the responding audience numbers between 50,000 to almost 100,000 respondents. Much larger, more diverse and less partisan than the audience(s) polled by the professionals.

I'm posting this out of interest. I am not defending anything. Read them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Perhaps things aren't as clear, cut and dried as the MSM and professional pollers suggest.

Vote in our Canada federal election 2025 polls: Which leader won the debates? Who do you want to be the next PM?

Yahoo News Canada curated a list of polls on issues ranging from Trump's annexation threat to the cost of living crisis so you can make your voice count as the federal leaders fight out it in a critical debate week going into the election day on April 28

ca.news.yahoo.com

One more tidbit from the people who make a living working the odds.

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

Seventy per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party

ca.news.yahoo.com

 

[Lumber]

I bitch and moan a lot about the liberal party, it's my democratic right. When they take power I swallow it and continue my life as a lawful Canadian. I pay my taxes, gave 37 years of military service under various governments, worked really hard for what I have and thankfully will have an estate that leaves my family, hopefully, ahead of the game. I don't ask my government for much. Just a chance to enjoy my hunting, fishing and shooting hobbies. Our current government has already threatened two of those by restricting my ability to own firearms. Not for any physical or societal reason, but strictly an idealogical bent to control society and the individual without any scientific or moral reason other than what they want for themselves. However, we've beat that to death here.

The current government, besides stealing my guns, will now mandate my movement around the continent. Increased fuel taxes on rail, air and gas powered vehicles to stymie normal people from making travel affordable.

Now they intend to force me into their choice of vehicle. Their net zero green plan designed by two climate zealots, Carney and Guilbeault, will see the end of sales of gas and diesel vehicles in ten years. Everything sold with be mandated electric vehicles. A technology, currently rife with problems.

Under their (trudeau's) plan, if elected, they will mandate the sale of electric vehicles. 20% of all vehicles sold next year must be electric. In ten years, by 35, 100% of vehicles sold will be electric.

I don't want an electric vehicle. It will put the final nail in the coffin of my leisure activities. I do not like to be told what to do with the meager amount of cash the government leaves me in my pocket. I do not like that politicians from the liberal party will be making fortunes off the back end of the initiatives and products. I do not like that my tax dollars will go to the inevitable rebates collected by people that are already rich enough to purchase an electric vehicle. I do not like that green zealots have stolen my country and left me without a voice or choice. I do not like that it will curtail much of personal travel leaving Canadians trapped in their prefab, 15 minute cities.

I hope all those that bow down to King Carney and his court jester Guilbeault are happy with their mandated, glorified golf carts.

Lorne Gunter: Poilievre's promise to kill EV mandate a good first step to counter Liberal eco-zealotry​

Lorne Gunter: Poilievre's promise to kill EV mandate a good first step to counter Liberal eco-zealotry

Ending the mandate that within a decade Canadian will only be able to buy EVs is welcome, even if Poilievre doesn't end industry subsidies.

edmontonjournal.com

The LPC is going to "mandate your movement aroudn the continent"?

You sound like one of those people who said "I'll never drive an automatic!", or "I'll never wear a seatbelt!".

 

[Navy_Pete]

This is part of the generational policy standpoint I agree with.

Same as above and I am one of those.

Agreed. As I stated above with the policy standpoint.

They are indeed common place. This is the point where individual situations can vary. I don’t think it is much to ask younger types to help their older parents if said parents helped their younger children.

However from a wider generational policy standpoint younger generations should not be expected to cough up for an older generation that set the stage for where we find ourselves.

For sure, I'm a late stage genX myself. Helped my parents out where I could, and hopefully setting my kid up for success generally, but at the same time expecting that she has a far bigger fight uphill to get independent, so looking at some renos to make it a bit more of a separate living space downstairs (with proper escape window) so that if she does stay at home longer better setup for private space so it'll be less weird in her 20s.

It is tough as a parent though, seeing that your kid won't have the same opportunity as you, even if they put in the work and are more successful than you. I was able to get a small, fix me upper bungalow in Halifax when I was late 20s, but the same place now is about 4 times more, and the rent on it is something like $2500- $3k/month now, so something where you'd want roomates or something on a subbies salary.

 

[Lumber]

Everyone knows my opinion of polls. However, we've been welded to the results published by the aggregate 338Canada.

While bumbling around the webz this morn, I came across some polls on Yahoo News. They are much more pointed in their questions. What is interesting though, is that they are voluntary, open to anyone and not defined by an audience chosen by a polling firm.

What is the most interesting though is that the responding audience numbers between 50,000 to almost 100,000 respondents. Much larger, more diverse and less partisan than the audience(s) polled by the professionals.

I'm posting this out of interest. I am not defending anything. Read them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Perhaps things aren't as clear, cut and dried as the MSM and professional pollers suggest.

Vote in our Canada federal election 2025 polls: Which leader won the debates? Who do you want to be the next PM?

Yahoo News Canada curated a list of polls on issues ranging from Trump's annexation threat to the cost of living crisis so you can make your voice count as the federal leaders fight out it in a critical debate week going into the election day on April 28

ca.news.yahoo.com

One more tidbit from the people who make a living working the odds.

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

Seventy per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party

ca.news.yahoo.com

Ok, so for the first link, the last question of that poll tells the whole story. The last question is: "Which political party's values do you identify with the most?", and the result is 75% CPC vs 18% LPC, which means that 75% of the people who made it to that Yahoo web page (somehow, because who TF uses Yahoo news?) were already CPC "voters". It means the results of the other questions tell you diddly squat about the potential results of the election.

Regarding the second link, if you want a better site for assessing the betting market's take on the election, I would recommend Polymarket. It's got a wider base and has been the betters have been getting other elections fairly accurately. Currently, there is $66 MILLION in bets on "who will be Canada's PM after the election" with the site giving 79% odds to Carney.

Also, specific to FanDuel, while more bets have been placed on the CPC than on the LPC, the odds of winning (as reported on that site) are still firmly in the LPC's hands. People must be putting money on the CPC hoping for an upset and better returns.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I bitch and moan a lot about the liberal party

I'm in the same boat. Watching people obsess talk non-stop about Poilievre makes me think in hindsight how annoying it must be when people like you and I obsessed over Trudeau. Sure Poilievre is polarizing. I'm disbelieving sitting watching Canadians shrug and walk past the Liberal party behavior for the last 10 years. I've used the analogy before about swapping out a toxic unit CO is useless if the rest of the CoC are still toxic leaders. The Liberal party of the last 10 years hasn't changed. When you add up the Liberal party scandals and flagrantly spent or missing tax dollars holy shit. Carney has already signaled he doesn't care about that stuff. From bringing back Mendicino and Fraser, to supporting Chiang.

If Carney wins and 4 years later shits just as bad what are we going to hear?
-Oh, we just need another 4 years, THEN he'll have it all fix.
-Canadians just didn't invest enough into his plan.
-Things would have been worse with Poilievre anyways.

It's wild. Come year 14 of the Liberal party failing Canadians, with even higher crime rates, food insecurity, lack of housing, and bigger deficits, the last people Canadian voters will blame is themselves.

 

[Lumber]

For sure, I'm a late stage genX myself. Helped my parents out where I could, and hopefully setting my kid up for success generally, but at the same time expecting that she has a far bigger fight uphill to get independent, so looking at some renos to make it a bit more of a separate living space downstairs (with proper escape window) so that if she does stay at home longer better setup for private space so it'll be less weird in her 20s.

It is tough as a parent though, seeing that your kid won't have the same opportunity as you, even if they put in the work and are more successful than you. I was able to get a small, fix me upper bungalow in Halifax when I was late 20s, but the same place now is about 4 times more, and the rent on it is something like $2500- $3k/month now, so something where you'd want roomates or something on a subbies salary.

Wanna go in on a compound/homestead?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The LPC is going to "mandate your movement aroudn the continent"?

You sound like one of those people who said "I'll never drive an automatic!", or "I'll never wear a seatbelt!".

Movement will be hindered by transportation taxes, which Carney has already said need to be increased. Limited by where and how and how long your electric charger will be located and the price of the use. Many Canadians are limited in income and can't afford these increases. Raising it all limits their ability to travel. Carney said 75% of Canada's fossil fuels are to remain in the ground. How do you think that'll affect the cost of gas, diesel and LNG? Taxes and electrification are mandated by the government. Taxes and electrification will affect your ability to travel.

The connection is not that difficult to make.

I won't address your childish personal attack.

 

[RangerRay]

I don’t think their intent was to favour any one candidate. They know exactly what they were doing .

I’m not sure what what their point is. At best, this tactic helps the incumbent by splitting the anti-incumbent vote 10 million ways. This might even help Poilievre if his reelection is as tight as reported.

They did this in my riding during a by-election. It made no difference to the outcome and the incumbent was very safe.

If anything, I suspect it annoys voters and election workers. Politicians don’t notice and don’t care.

 

[Lumber]

Movement will be hindered by transportation taxes, which Carney has already said need to be increased. Limited by where and how and how long your electric charger will be located and the price of the use. Many Canadians are limited in income and can't afford these increases. Raising it all limits their ability to travel. Carney said 75% of Canada's fossil fuels are to remain in the ground. How do you think that'll affect the cost of gas, diesel and LNG? Taxes and electrification are mandated by the government. Taxes and electrification will affect your ability to travel.

The connection is not that difficult to make.

I won't address your childish personal attack.

It wasn't meant as a personal attack. My point is that with any new technology, there are always detractors who claim they will never get on board. However, after a few years, you find that not only has everyone just moved along, but even those detractors have become supporters. Once EVs become more ubiquitous and battery ranges start consistently meeting the ranges of gasoline engines (many already do), it won't be any more difficult or expensive to maintain the same "freedom" of movement as when we were all driving manual transmission gas guzzlers without our seatbelts on.