2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[The Bread Guy]

What a wild outcome,

Regarding Pierre Poilievre’s loss, I feel like the message here sent was "we want your party, but we don't want you"

Even in the months of Blue being well ahead in the polls, even when JT was still around, PP never drew good individual like numbers. When it was against JT, people seemed to hold their nose about the coach while good with the team.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I would think that there are a block of at least a half dozen Conservatives that could be persuaded to cross the floor for a lot cheaper than dealing either with the NDP or worse, the BQ.

Bringing the BQ into government would about finish the Liberals west of Ontario.

The newly elected Conservatives in the Windsor area would be a good bet. They are an anomaly.

 

[dapaterson]

I would think that there are a block of at least a half dozen Conservatives that could be persuaded to cross the floor for a lot cheaper than dealing either with the NDP or worse, the BQ.

Bringing the BQ into government would about finish the Liberals west of Ontario.

If a LPC / BQ agreement gets an eastern pipeline through Quebec...

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The newly elected Conservatives in the Windsor area would be a good bet. They are an anomaly.

That is pretty much what I was thinking, too.

The Liberals should be putting out feelers to Conservatives who just won in either NDP or Liberal ridings, especially by close margins.

Call it a “national unity” effort. It would fly.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If a LPC / BQ agreement gets an eastern pipeline through Quebec...

Not a chance in hell the BQ would go for that.

 

[OldSolduer]

Even in the months of Blue being well ahead in the polls, even when JT was still around, PP never drew good individual like numbers. When it was against JT, people seemed to hold their nose about the coach while good with the team.

Remember the kid that got shoved in the high school locker and swore revenge? That's PP.

I liked his policy statements, and the line they took. This is on him.

 

[dapaterson]

Not a chance in hell the BQ would go for that.

Govt of QC is starting to change their tune, so BQ may as well.

Politics makes strange bedfellows and all that.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I would think that there are a block of at least a half dozen Conservatives that could be persuaded to cross the floor for a lot cheaper than dealing either with the NDP or worse, the BQ.

Bringing the BQ into government would about finish the Liberals west of Ontario.

I was curious- using 2022 leadership endorsements for Aitchision/Brown/ Charest as a proxy, the only one that satisfies my conditions is Richard Martel in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. The other 17 are all either in safe Conservative ridings (both risky to defect, and in defiance of constituent wishes), pushed out of the party, or both.

Harder to gauge the sentiment of newly elected members in flipped ridings, but I have trouble believing that they're not believers/ loyalists. Not a flip, but Andrew Lawton replacing Karen Vecchio is my primary barometer for the types of candidates HQ was acclaiming.

Best case scenario is that they don't have to though- that the CPC itself works to find common ground.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Govt of QC is starting to change their tune, so BQ may as well.

Politics makes strange bedfellows and all that.

Interesting. I had not heard that.

 

[OldSolduer]

Govt of QC is starting to change their tune, so BQ may as well.

Politics makes strange bedfellows and all that.

So does wads of cash.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I was curious- using 2022 leadership endorsements for Aitchision/Brown/ Charest as a proxy, the only one that satisfies my conditions is Richard Martel in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. The other 17 are all either in safe Conservative ridings (both risky to defect, and in defiance of constituent wishes), pushed out of the party, or both.

Harder to gauge the sentiment of newly elected members in flipped ridings, but I have trouble believing that they're not believers/ loyalists. Not a flip, but Andrew Lawton replacing Karen Vecchio is my primary barometer for the types of candidates HQ was acclaiming.

Best case scenario is that they don't have to though- that the CPC itself works to find common ground.

The thing is, with PP seatless at the moment and facing an automatic leadership review (probably at least 6 months before a byelection could be called in a safe, rural Alberta seat, anyway), there is not a lot of leverage over CPC MPs. They can do pretty much what they like for immediate future.

 

[Underway]

Sort term:

CPC are neutered. Leader without a seat and an election loss means that the conservatives will do what they always do. Murder their darlings.

NDP are neutered and the Libs can make agreements with any party if they are smart. Pushing through a pro-resource extraction and business agenda will get the conservatives onside enough they won't need NDP support.

National crisis means that parties will work together until the crisis is either past or sleeping.

 

[IKnowNothing]

The thing is, with PP seatless at the moment and facing an automatic leadership review (probably at least 6 months before a byelection could be called in a safe, rural Alberta seat, anyway), there is not a lot of leverage over CPC MPs. They can do pretty much what they like for immediate future.

True- but I'm moreso thinking about the long-term implications of the flip.
There's a pretty clear "big picture" idealistic motivation for a moderate CPC to flip in order to influence an LPC minority back to the centre rather than let the NDP pull them farther left. You can argue 6 ways to Sunday that it's patriotic, high minded, in the countries best interest etc.

But on the other side of that coin, if it wasn't a closely contested race, they're A- likely sacrificing their political futures (which arguably makes it more patriotic), but also B- creating an ethical conundrum where they are acting in what they believe in the best interests of the country- but in doing so effectively putting their ideals ahead of the wishes of their constituents, and in way- subverting democracy.

If PP doubles down and refuses to work with Carney I think there will be some sleepless PC nights.

I really hope we see a version of PP that grows up and learns that he needs to work with others if he wants to influence government policy.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Sort term:

CPC are neutered. Leader without a seat and an election loss means that the conservatives will do what they always do. Murder their darlings.

NDP are neutered and the Libs can make agreements with any party if they are smart. Pushing through a pro-resource extraction and business agenda will get the conservatives onside enough they won't need NDP support.

National crisis means that parties will work together until the crisis is either past or sleeping.

I am thinking this is most likely COA for the Liberals. It has the added advantage of enraging a more hard-edged part of the CPC, against the more pragmatic wing, which all but gauarantees fratricide while the Conservatives sort it out. Thus giving the Liberals a free hand for a solid two years. If the Liberals are pragmatic and don’t rub salt in the wounds with stupid legislation, they could run the table next time. The fly in the ointment is that Carney’s team is Trudeau’s old team. Are they actually pragmatic?

 

[QV]

Do you really think Carney will push a pro-resource extraction policy? His historic stance suggests no.

Two things I'll be watching with particular interest now:

• How Carney handles the US and Canada's response to economic and defence issues
• What this result does for the Que and AB succession movements

 

[SeaKingTacco]

True- but I'm moreso thinking about the long-term implications of the flip.
There's a pretty clear "big picture" idealistic motivation for a moderate CPC to flip in order to influence an LPC minority back to the centre rather than let the NDP pull them farther left. You can argue 6 ways to Sunday that it's patriotic, high minded, in the countries best interest etc.

But on the other side of that coin, if it wasn't a closely contested race, they're A- likely sacrificing their political futures (which arguably makes it more patriotic), but also B- creating an ethical conundrum where they are acting in what they believe in the best interests of the country- but in doing so effectively putting their ideals ahead of the wishes of their constituents, and in way- subverting democracy.

If PP doubles down and refuses to work with Carney I think there will be some sleepless PC nights.

They can argue that they are putting Constituents/Country before Party. It could work. Of course, this is Canada, so it probably won’t work.

 

[Jarnhamar]

And I'm pretty sure I heard him on CBC radio he was still planning on the being the CPC leader. Interesting to see how that plays out.

I'm not sure how I feel about that.

One of the pros of Poilievre was him being an attack dog and hammering away at the LPC making sure Canadians were aware of Liberal scandals and some of the shady behavior they tried to get away with. (Even then it was years before their behavior really started coming to light, and did Canadians outside of the cpc REALLY care?)

The down side is there's blood in the water now and I don't see team red stopping until Poilievre is out of the picture. I see him being made a constant distraction and Trump boogyman which will empower Carney even more. Keeping him is a catch 22.

 

[IKnowNothing]

They can argue that they are putting Constituents/Country before Party. It could work. Of course, this is Canada, so it probably won’t work.

I'll be writing my MP to ask him to try.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Question - thoughts on if this outcome, a Minority Govt, will 'force' Carney to follow through on some of the announced (and yet to be announced) major funding initiatives for the CAF?

No. If anything it gives him an excuse not to.
"Sorry, other parties didn't support us, give us a majority in 2029 and we'll see".

2) 88 F35's

This conveniently wasnt included in their final platform. No mentikn of replacing our fighters.

3) Less than 88 F35's and a number of French Rafale's?

See above.

8) The River Class timelines speed up as much as possible?

Another big purchase that was conveniently left out of their final platform. They were voted in under that platfoem so there'snonreason to honour this in the next 4 years.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I'm not sure how I feel about that.

One of thr pros of Poilievre was him being an attack dog and hammering away at the LPC making sure Canadians were aware of Liberal scandals and some of the shady behavior they tried to get away with. (Even then it was years before their behavior really started coming to light, and did Canadians outside of the cpc REALLY care?)

The down side is there's blood in the water now and I don't see team red stopping until Poilievre is out of the picture. I see him being made a constant distraction and Trump boogyman which will empower Carney even more.

PP is fighting for his political life, now. How he presents himself over the next few weeks will say volumes about where he perceives the power centre in the CPC to be. Are they Doug Ford/Tim Houston Conservatives or MAGA lite Conservatives?

My gut feel is that, Liberal election campaign propaganda notwithstanding, the average Conservative MP is quite a bit more pragmatic than one would think. I don’t actually believe that the CPC is a raging bunch of Trumpists….