2026 Wildfire Season

[SeaKingTacco]

Industry situating the estimate during a time of crisis to help … nudge the narrative? Be still my foolish heart, right?

Meanwhile, couple of dudes are saying Canada should buy more DH waterbombers with defence money - came out today, coincidentally

Opinion: As Canada burns, defence spending must go toward fighting wildfires

Fires in Canada are growing year and year, our fleets of water bombers should too

www.theglobeandmail.com

Funny how these things work, eh?

I can just see the headlines:

“Canada forced to make choice between allocating federal water bombers to either Quebec or Alberta fires. Both Provincial Premiers take news well…”


This is why there is no federal fleet of water bombers. Nor will there ever be.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I can just see the headlines:

“Canada forced to make choice between allocating federal water bombers to either Quebec or Alberta fires. Both Provincial Premiers take news well…”

This is why there is no federal fleet of water bombers. Nor will there ever be.

never say never. They could base them in Quebec and make Alberta ask to have use of them.

But as a corollary, what’s driving TCs attitude and policy about repurposing used and decommissioned Canadian aircraft?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

never say never. They could base them in Quebec and make Alberta ask to have use of them.

But as a corollary, what’s driving TCs attitude and policy about repurposing used and decommissioned Canadian aircraft?

The way it was explained to me, they feel like they were burned on the Tracker file in 1990s.

TC does not like how the military tracks parts or documents maintenance. I don’t think we do it “wrong”, just differently than industry.

Finally, (and this is just my opinion) there is probably pressure from OEMs to keep retired military aircraft off the market and thus competing for sales against new build aircraft.

 

[PrairieFella]

Up next on your wildfire season bingo card: US border legislators asking Canada to get a grip on the smoke, m’kay?

What smarmy twats. They know full well the situation. Maybe DARPA can fire up the weather machine and get some rain into the areas that have had like 5+ years of low precipitation?

 

[lenaitch]

Pretty wild claim here, if true …

I heard from a railroader that a high-rail was sent to rescue the crew but ran into the train because of zero visibility. He also said that the raging flames seen in the video was short-lived.

From riding with my Dad, there was a "Dead man" peddle by his right foot. That would throw the brakes into emergency.

To be honest, I remember seeing it held down by non-human means.

Now, they use a buzzer alert .

I remember our subway mortormen had to hold the hand throttle down. But, if the operator collapsed over it, the train would keep moving.

That will apply the brakes and reduce the throttle to zero but won't shut down the prime mover (engine).

Up next on your wildfire season bingo card: US border legislators asking Canada to get a grip on the smoke, m’kay?

I'd make them a deal. We will look into our smoke rights after they solve guns and drugs crossing the border northbound.

The way it was explained to me, they feel like they were burned on the Tracker file in 1990s.

TC does not like how the military tracks parts or documents maintenance. I don’t think we do it “wrong”, just differently than industry.

Finally, (and this is just my opinion) there is probably pressure from OEMs to keep retired military aircraft off the market and thus competing for sales against new build aircraft.

It used to quite common for US law enforcement to get hand-me-down military aircraft and vehicles. I understand that is greatly reduce if not eliminated.

 

[Good2Golf]

Finally, (and this is just my opinion) there is probably pressure from OEMs to keep retired military aircraft off the market and thus competing for sales against new build aircraft.

Perhaps OEMs, but likely more so civilian operators who provide aerial water/retardant dropping services.

That’s why DND stopped being allowed to water bucket fires in the mid-90s, both external land and on DND-property. CH-147 and CH-135 could take care of RTA fires quite effectively at the onset.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I'd make them a deal. We will look into our smoke rights after they solve guns and drugs crossing the border northbound.

That popped into my mind, too - great minds think alike/fools seldom differ, I guess

 

[YZT580]

never say never. They could base them in Quebec and make Alberta ask to have use of them.

But as a corollary, what’s driving TCs attitude and policy about repurposing used and decommissioned Canadian aircraft?

TC has become very risk adverse. They also are lacking in recent knowledge. Check pilots don't get the hours they used to, engineers when doing investigations by having company experts doing much of the actual work whilst they supervise. Their ATC skills are based on licenses that are 20 years out of date. I could go on but the problems started arising in the late 90s with a push to reduce the requirements for demonstrated On Job skill. Instead the reliance was on background knowledge so a person that had been out of the trades for years but kept up with the books had a great chance of beating out a design engineer from DeHavilland who hadn't kept up with the latest restrictions on cabin bathrooms. The inspectors are well aware of their personal limitations and work within them hence risk aversion. Why do you think it took them so long to certify the gulfstreams.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Pemberton is on the run …

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[foresterab]

The way it was explained to me, they feel like they were burned on the Tracker file in 1990s.

TC does not like how the military tracks parts or documents maintenance. I don’t think we do it “wrong”, just differently than industry.

Finally, (and this is just my opinion) there is probably pressure from OEMs to keep retired military aircraft off the market and thus competing for sales against new build aircraft.

It also depends on the airframes...

Large fixed wing units like the L-188 are excellent especially in mountains where they're able to handle the wind/lift changes better than smaller units....but dropping water is hell on planes especially the wing spars and under go high strain on the airframes. Smaller units like the Air Tractors 802's are great (in numbers to match equal load of a large plane) and can be very precise...but they are small light planes in a area with all kinds of wind/heat/lift implications. The DeHavaliand series of scooper water bombers I'd place in the middle.

Note that the 802s and the CL-215/415/future 515 series tend to be built on new...many are just wearing out or have had complete rebuilds.

Planes like the Dash 8 Q400 tend to be civilian used planes converted...same with the RJ-185/Bae146's. Partially because in some cases the airframe is not in production anymore but there are ample #'s built for sourcing parts etc.

Personally...if we want a federal fleet outside of what the CIFFC tender process created this year....and CIFFC has already tapped out that fleet...then I'd be looking at one of three options:

• Bombardier Dash8- Q400 MR. This is a sub-series but allows for both passenger use or tanker use via modular tank systems. Saskatchewan has 2 of them and I view them as both a civil response/water bomber. this is my first choice due to the number of civilian airframes out there and pilots available.
• C-130 with modular MAFF tank. This would be similar to the US Air National Guard squadrons who fly these missions. Aligns better with the RCAF but it's a US airframe which is politically tougher
• CL-515 but only if they were also given additional taskings like SAR on the Great Lakes/coastline. You need a mission when seasons are slow and if it's going to be a federal fleet then aligning multiple priorities is key. Almost every province/territory uses the older versions of these planes so they are fairly inter-operable with provincial fleets.

 

[daftandbarmy]

• CL-515 but only if they were also given additional taskings like SAR on the Great Lakes/coastline. You need a mission when seasons are slow and if it's going to be a federal fleet then aligning multiple priorities is key. Almost every province/territory uses the older versions of these planes so they are fairly inter-operable with provincial fleets.

Or lease them out to other countries for their fire seasons...

 

[daftandbarmy]

Meanwhile, 'Super' El Nino...

El Niño is here, and it’s already looking like it could be 'mind-blowing'​

'I think we should prepare for some pretty significant impacts,' says climate scientist​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/el-nino-july-9.7272908

 

[ModlrMike]

Went for a run this morning: