2024 Wildfire Season

[Halifax Tar]

VDH and some initial thoughts on the ineffectiveness of the California governing bodies leading to systems breakdowns ...

Victor Davis Hanson: California's Catastrophic Wildfires Are ‘A DEI, Green New Deal Disaster’​

In this edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words,” Hanson, author of “The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation,” provides an analysis of California's wildfire management and policy failures under Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. Hanson discusses the mismanagement of resources, lack of effective forest management, and prioritization of diversity and inclusion over merit in firefighting efforts. He labels the situation as a “systems breakdown” and warns of the larger implications for California's future.

C'mon man this is climate change, dontcha know ?

 

[foresterab]

VDH and some initial thoughts on the ineffectiveness of the California governing bodies leading to systems breakdowns ...

Victor Davis Hanson: California's Catastrophic Wildfires Are ‘A DEI, Green New Deal Disaster’​

In this edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words,” Hanson, author of “The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation,” provides an analysis of California's wildfire management and policy failures under Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. Hanson discusses the mismanagement of resources, lack of effective forest management, and prioritization of diversity and inclusion over merit in firefighting efforts. He labels the situation as a “systems breakdown” and warns of the larger implications for California's future.

Interesting and would need a few beers with the US guys to dig into this more. In the back of my mind though is also what many coworkers have said after deploying to other US states (I never have for clarity) is "god it's complex and the rules constantly change by parcel of land". You don't have municipal/private land and crown land...you have a mix of state lands, National Forests, National Parks, National Defense, Indian Reserve, State Parks, Cities, Municipalities (who may hire services from cities) and private lands. And almost every jurisdiction has slightly different rules on what tactics are allowed vs. how the tactics are done.

For example there are National Parks in the NW states where helicopters are not allowed to fly over low level. So they use Smoke Jumpers to parachute in and in turn the Smoke Jumpers walk out once the fire is extinguished. Or if you're using heavy equipment the size of the guard will vary by jurisdiction, different rules around felling trees in advance of dozers, and different reclamation standards. So you can start to see how in the California response the challenges of operating on state lands vs. City of LA lands. And then there is also 3rd party insurance crews (which are also starting to show up in Canada) who operate on behalf of insurance companies and are separate from the fire response.

So where to go? I think back to other international lessons learned:
1) New Zealand and its National Commissions on earthquake response. New Zealand - Christchurch especially - was hit by earthquakes multiple years (2010, 2011 and 2016) and after each major event they had a National Commission. The first highlighted that their emergency response was well trained but inexperienced and that the agency ended up spending a ton of time doing grunt work vs. leadership. They then deployed all over the world to gain additional experience and couple of years later when a second earthquake occurred it was a very different story - much better communication but more importantly they did an excellent job of providing a structure where non-emergency response agencies (think rugby clubs and old folk homes) were able to not only participate but provided a key volume of manpower in low risk areas freeing up more trained staff to focus on things like recovery of trapped people. Very large agencies have often had the mass to not rely upon this but for the Armed Forces folks on here think more like Russia now bringing in North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict due to their shortages.

2) Black Saturday in Australia 2009. 173 people died as a result of multiple fires breaking out under conditions/fuels that remind me somewhat of California right now except spread over larger areas and significantly larger fires involved. As part of the response the Federal Government changed a pile of laws focused not just on building code requirements in bushfire prone areas but also things like signage. For example there were subdivisions where crews were getting mixed up due to Aspen Drive, Aspen Street, Aspen Crescent, Aspen Parkway...now there's just one road with Aspen in it. Also brought in very strict rules around roofing/siding/landscaping where everything was grandfathered in...but any renovations or new builds must comply to reduce the flammability of structures. And in conjunction with insurance agencies brought in clear standards for compliance to maintain your fire insurance....and if you don't have fire insurance there is no response effort expected for your home (carrot and stick). They also have some very good comprehensive public situation updates that includes not just bushfire situations but any other agency so the public can see if the road is blocked due to downed powerlines, a shark in the harbour, chemical spill etc. and they don't have folks trying to evacuation from one fire and getting caught between a second fire they didn't know about. Here's Victoria, Australia for example Incidents and Warnings - VicEmergency

I've been told all this 2nd/3rd hand so will apologize if some details are not 100% correct but the points I'm trying to make are as follows:
1) in major incidents like LA/California right now there is no one agency in the world that I am aware of that has enough manpower. So alternate sources/agreements are needed. CALFIRE is almost as large as the USFS resources and dwarfs Canadian capacity...and both Mexico and Canada have sent resources there. FEMA is there. LA has huge capacity and is tapped out. This is just the Palisades fire as of latest Situation Report:

So any agency when trying to think of how to deal with a major incident needs to also have a plan on how to expand fast, access more resources, and frankly be thinking of alternate manpower sources. I honestly don't know if there are this many staff in all the wildland agencies in Canada combined during summer/peak manpower numbers for comparison.

2) The only way insurance companies are going to stay in an area is if there is a chance of stable/reliable asset protection. And frankly while everyone wants the nice scenic view with tons of trees and landscaping they also create a nightmare for suppression and suck up a ton of resources to try to save residences in high risk conditions. There needs to be a serious discussion about what is proper home engineering not just for wildfires but also floods and other disasters depending on the region of the country and get serious about not just about what is allowed but some clear and frank discussions of where folks are on their own. The Red River valley in Manitoba is a good example of this situation where folks were allowed to re-build on the flood plain with disaster funds but unless they built to certain criteria (X meters above flood plain) they were ineligible for future assistance. Even simple things like burrow pits being allowed to refill with water vs. self draining, dugouts, water tanks (400 barrel oilfield tanks work great for this), or swimming pools are positives to have a pump source easy to hook up. Some folks are adding sprinkler lines to houses in advance to allow for easy hook-ups. But it needs to be more than "The Man" or "Government" helping people and more work done at all levels.

3) the you tube presentation by Victor Davis Hanson touches on lots of landscape and city specific issues that combined have made the response tougher. City residents want streams (I'm guessing here but sure there is a lot more too it) flowing outside the city for "nature" => less contained water in dam reservoirs => water shortages when fighting fires inside the city. Many emergency responses force the breaking of political/financial/administrative silos that under low risk/no hazard situations build up. Even under ICS one of the big criteria to move from a Type 2 complex incident to a Type 1 is Unified Command being implemented...and its' a very rare thing to need to do. But disasters don't care about political affiliation, race, background, gender or who sleeps with whom...like warfare they highlight the need to focus on "Can you do the job" and "Do I have enough tools to support those troops on the line". And a consistent challenge for all agencies is how to break down the silos when planning joint responses and also considering the ripple effects of decisions within their own silo upon those same partners they rely upon.

Some co-workers are deploying this weekend to go down there as part of a CIFFC deployment of 5 Unit crews (20 person crews). Not sure the specifics if it's the CIFFC/NIFFC exchange or CIFFC coordinating with California. I'm hoping they are not "in the shit" and don't have any health issues like the 2016 Fort Mac Fire from burning buildings/smoke/toxin exposures. And I'm sure I'll be hearing about these fires professionally for many years to come...hopefully with some positive lessons learned.

Hoping this is caught quickly (of the five fires in the greater LA one is already 100% contained and two others are well on their way) and that for those folks deploying there is no long term trauma from the events. It is one that like 9-11 events, Hurricane Katrina or any of the many community evacuations/disasters around the world residents will reflect upon for years to come.

 

[Kirkhill]

Much like what has been going on in Florida and other southeast hurricane prone areas. Folks are paying five figures for insurance, if they can get it.

Apparently, State Farm cancelled policies last July representing about 70% of the Palisades area. I guess that why actuaries make what they do.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-ne...-with-looting-price-gouging-insurance-issues/

Apparently, displaced evacuees trying to rent or stay in hotels are facing inflated prices.

My Granny's 200 year old fire proof cottage: Field stone walls filled with rubble and covered in roughcast pebbledash, roofed with slate and tiled floors. Minimal windows. And no trees in the yard.

 

[Kirkhill]

Interesting and would need a few beers with the US guys to dig into this more. In the back of my mind though is also what many coworkers have said after deploying to other US states (I never have for clarity) is "god it's complex and the rules constantly change by parcel of land". You don't have municipal/private land and crown land...you have a mix of state lands, National Forests, National Parks, National Defense, Indian Reserve, State Parks, Cities, Municipalities (who may hire services from cities) and private lands. And almost every jurisdiction has slightly different rules on what tactics are allowed vs. how the tactics are done.

For example there are National Parks in the NW states where helicopters are not allowed to fly over low level. So they use Smoke Jumpers to parachute in and in turn the Smoke Jumpers walk out once the fire is extinguished. Or if you're using heavy equipment the size of the guard will vary by jurisdiction, different rules around felling trees in advance of dozers, and different reclamation standards. So you can start to see how in the California response the challenges of operating on state lands vs. City of LA lands. And then there is also 3rd party insurance crews (which are also starting to show up in Canada) who operate on behalf of insurance companies and are separate from the fire response.

So where to go? I think back to other international lessons learned:
1) New Zealand and its National Commissions on earthquake response. New Zealand - Christchurch especially - was hit by earthquakes multiple years (2010, 2011 and 2016) and after each major event they had a National Commission. The first highlighted that their emergency response was well trained but inexperienced and that the agency ended up spending a ton of time doing grunt work vs. leadership. They then deployed all over the world to gain additional experience and couple of years later when a second earthquake occurred it was a very different story - much better communication but more importantly they did an excellent job of providing a structure where non-emergency response agencies (think rugby clubs and old folk homes) were able to not only participate but provided a key volume of manpower in low risk areas freeing up more trained staff to focus on things like recovery of trapped people. Very large agencies have often had the mass to not rely upon this but for the Armed Forces folks on here think more like Russia now bringing in North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict due to their shortages.

2) Black Saturday in Australia 2009. 173 people died as a result of multiple fires breaking out under conditions/fuels that remind me somewhat of California right now except spread over larger areas and significantly larger fires involved. As part of the response the Federal Government changed a pile of laws focused not just on building code requirements in bushfire prone areas but also things like signage. For example there were subdivisions where crews were getting mixed up due to Aspen Drive, Aspen Street, Aspen Crescent, Aspen Parkway...now there's just one road with Aspen in it. Also brought in very strict rules around roofing/siding/landscaping where everything was grandfathered in...but any renovations or new builds must comply to reduce the flammability of structures. And in conjunction with insurance agencies brought in clear standards for compliance to maintain your fire insurance....and if you don't have fire insurance there is no response effort expected for your home (carrot and stick). They also have some very good comprehensive public situation updates that includes not just bushfire situations but any other agency so the public can see if the road is blocked due to downed powerlines, a shark in the harbour, chemical spill etc. and they don't have folks trying to evacuation from one fire and getting caught between a second fire they didn't know about. Here's Victoria, Australia for example Incidents and Warnings - VicEmergency

I've been told all this 2nd/3rd hand so will apologize if some details are not 100% correct but the points I'm trying to make are as follows:
1) in major incidents like LA/California right now there is no one agency in the world that I am aware of that has enough manpower. So alternate sources/agreements are needed. CALFIRE is almost as large as the USFS resources and dwarfs Canadian capacity...and both Mexico and Canada have sent resources there. FEMA is there. LA has huge capacity and is tapped out. This is just the Palisades fire as of latest Situation Report:
View attachment 90430
So any agency when trying to think of how to deal with a major incident needs to also have a plan on how to expand fast, access more resources, and frankly be thinking of alternate manpower sources. I honestly don't know if there are this many staff in all the wildland agencies in Canada combined during summer/peak manpower numbers for comparison.

2) The only way insurance companies are going to stay in an area is if there is a chance of stable/reliable asset protection. And frankly while everyone wants the nice scenic view with tons of trees and landscaping they also create a nightmare for suppression and suck up a ton of resources to try to save residences in high risk conditions. There needs to be a serious discussion about what is proper home engineering not just for wildfires but also floods and other disasters depending on the region of the country and get serious about not just about what is allowed but some clear and frank discussions of where folks are on their own. The Red River valley in Manitoba is a good example of this situation where folks were allowed to re-build on the flood plain with disaster funds but unless they built to certain criteria (X meters above flood plain) they were ineligible for future assistance. Even simple things like burrow pits being allowed to refill with water vs. self draining, dugouts, water tanks (400 barrel oilfield tanks work great for this), or swimming pools are positives to have a pump source easy to hook up. Some folks are adding sprinkler lines to houses in advance to allow for easy hook-ups. But it needs to be more than "The Man" or "Government" helping people and more work done at all levels.

3) the you tube presentation by Victor Davis Hanson touches on lots of landscape and city specific issues that combined have made the response tougher. City residents want streams (I'm guessing here but sure there is a lot more too it) flowing outside the city for "nature" => less contained water in dam reservoirs => water shortages when fighting fires inside the city. Many emergency responses force the breaking of political/financial/administrative silos that under low risk/no hazard situations build up. Even under ICS one of the big criteria to move from a Type 2 complex incident to a Type 1 is Unified Command being implemented...and its' a very rare thing to need to do. But disasters don't care about political affiliation, race, background, gender or who sleeps with whom...like warfare they highlight the need to focus on "Can you do the job" and "Do I have enough tools to support those troops on the line". And a consistent challenge for all agencies is how to break down the silos when planning joint responses and also considering the ripple effects of decisions within their own silo upon those same partners they rely upon.

Some co-workers are deploying this weekend to go down there as part of a CIFFC deployment of 5 Unit crews (20 person crews). Not sure the specifics if it's the CIFFC/NIFFC exchange or CIFFC coordinating with California. I'm hoping they are not "in the shit" and don't have any health issues like the 2016 Fort Mac Fire from burning buildings/smoke/toxin exposures. And I'm sure I'll be hearing about these fires professionally for many years to come...hopefully with some positive lessons learned.

Hoping this is caught quickly (of the five fires in the greater LA one is already 100% contained and two others are well on their way) and that for those folks deploying there is no long term trauma from the events. It is one that like 9-11 events, Hurricane Katrina or any of the many community evacuations/disasters around the world residents will reflect upon for years to come.

Perhaps more of this type of thing?

How a ‘warrior’ brain surgeon saved his Malibu street from wildfires and looters

Chester Griffiths led his son and his neighbour in a marathon stand-off against flames and criminals under hail of burning debris

www.telegraph.co.uk

So this chap sets up his own neighbourhood volunteer fire service. Masks, turnout gear, 1.5 to 2" hoses. The whole nine yards.

But, I ask, where did he get the water given the dry fire hydrants in the area.

The answer, I suspect, is in the picture below. Hoses across the beach to the Pacific Ocean.


View attachment 90414

I now expect him to be slapped with an environment fine for using salt water ....

....

Local fire service was not authorizing salt water drops on the fires despite having suitable water bombers because of the impact of all that salt on the ground after the fire.

...

PS - his escape plan was over the beach to paddle boards.

PS - apparently I erred on the salt water issue, or at least the information I received was incomplete or inexact.

 

[dimsum]

C'mon man this is climate change, dontcha know ?

One doesn’t negate the other.

Or it could be neither. Or it could be both, with other factors too. Complex things don’t usually boil down to one reason.

But a wildfire in the winter is not normal.

 

[foresterab]

One doesn’t negate the other.

Or it could be neither. Or it could be both, with other factors too. Complex things don’t usually boil down to one reason.

But a wildfire in the winter is not normal.

Winter wildfires in a Canadian context are unusual to say the least. But in the US the fire hazard moves around and what is "off season" in Canada still remains active in the US especially in the southern States.

This is one of many different prediction/overview outlook tools run in the US. The NIFFC Season outlook website wasn't working when I checked today.
National 7-Day Significant Fire Potential

So California is not good (USFS Region 5) but the SW states (USFS Region 3) is also higher hazard and there is at least one fire going on in that area at the moment as well. USFS Region 8 (Southern and SE USA) also has hazard especially in Florida which actually gets a lot of fires due to winter = drying grasses/little precipitation.

For jurisdictions like Australia and other warmer climates they're into peak season and have little capacity to spare. Some of the Canadian tanker fleet owned by contractors is in Australia for the winter and will return north for the Canadian season. So resources shift as needed but for drier areas like coastal southern California they don't really have "off season" they way we think of it....it's just lower numbers of fires vs. peak demand for resources.

 

[mariomike]

It is one that like 9-11 events, Hurricane Katrina or any of the many community evacuations/disasters around the world residents will reflect upon for years to come.

I'm no climate scientist, but, the high country of northern AZ in Coconino County would be my best bet.

The South-West Chief ( Chicago < > LA ) services Flagstaff. And, if you need some perspective to contemplate while it's all coming apart, the Grand Canyon is nearby. You have to take what you can get.

 

[YZT580]

Would appear to me that DeHavilland has chosen a great time to start building water bombers. Should sell a couple of dozen after the great publicity they have received from LA.

 

[Jarnhamar]

climate scientist

According to climate scientists we should be out of oil, in another ice age, cities destroyed by acid rain and also under water, with no ozone layer.

 

[dimsum]

According to climate scientists we should be out of oil, in another ice age, cities destroyed by acid rain and also under water, with no ozone layer.

…and a key part of science is that when new info comes up, it can throw your hypothesis out the window. You then adjust your hypotheses, or get rid of them.

They’re scientists, not prophets.

 

[Jarnhamar]

…and a key part of science is that when new info comes up, it can throw your hypothesis out the window. You then adjust your hypotheses, or get rid of them.

They’re scientists, not prophets.

Sure. Each one of those predictions also came with "we need lots of more money for research/solutions". Saving the world makes for a good business model.

 

[foresterab]

Would appear to me that DeHavilland has chosen a great time to start building water bombers. Should sell a couple of dozen after the great publicity they have received from LA.

There are a couple of CL-415s if I recall off hand on contract to the USFS under AeroFlight. However scooper aircraft need water bodies to work off of so for the SW states they are much more limited in terms of operational effectiveness...and scooping from the ocean is not a normal practice at least in North America.

The one advantage the US has is the number of National Defense airstrips. So when you see a 737 or DC10 VLAT (Very Large Air Tanker) think of the former B-52 bases/airstrips for the type of construction needed. To be fair the Russian IL-76 conversion they use for fires also has the same issues.

In regards to the CL-515 production has started but so far all the confirmed orders are to the EU as part of either national fleets (Croatia, Greece) or funded in part to work as part of an EU Squadron of 12 planes. There's been rumors of some of the Canadian provinces ordering new airframes but it depends on how each province works....Saskatchewan for example has just purchased some Dash-8Q400 water bombers to replace their old Convair 340 fleet. Alberta (4x CL-215T aside) and BC tend to rely mostly upon contracted fleets while Ontario/Quebec/Newfoundland have their own airframes.

But the "ducks" are always a great watch...even better when they're in optimal cycles and you're able to watch the airshow instead of manually lugging that water.

 

[Remius]

Much like what has been going on in Florida and other southeast hurricane prone areas. Folks are paying five figures for insurance, if they can get it.

Apparently, State Farm cancelled policies last July representing about 70% of the Palisades area. I guess that why actuaries make what they do.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-ne...-with-looting-price-gouging-insurance-issues/

Apparently, displaced evacuees trying to rent or stay in hotels are facing inflated prices.

Yep. Climate deniers or climate zealots won’t matter in the long run. Insurance will dictate climate policy.

No insurance means no lending for mortgages which means housing market collapses in various locations.

The bottom line is the dollar. Insurance companies are speculating and predicting based on climate getting worse. Politicians will at some point have to react whether they want to or not.