2024 Wildfire Season

[foresterab]

on what basis do the insurance companies make their decisions?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878860413934432330

Well tools like this also exist:

National Risk Index | FEMA.gov

The National Risk Index is a dataset and online tool that leverages available data for natural hazard and community risk factors to help illustrate the U.S. communities most at risk for 18 natural hazards.

hazards.fema.gov

Choose your adventure and hazard.

I'm not aware of any similar based system in Canada but there has been pushes for something similar and many agencies are starting work on creating provincial versions of such products.

 

[Brad Sallows]

the actuarial analysis is supposed to be a risk assessment that would govern the predicted revenue/profit and loss. Of course they go and fuck that up by blowing it on investments

Until their investments started underperforming, the income from those investments helped keep premiums low. I'm grateful that for many years my home insurance premiums were lower.

 

[lenaitch]

There are a couple of CL-415s if I recall off hand on contract to the USFS under AeroFlight. However scooper aircraft need water bodies to work off of so for the SW states they are much more limited in terms of operational effectiveness...and scooping from the ocean is not a normal practice at least in North America.

The one advantage the US has is the number of National Defense airstrips. So when you see a 737 or DC10 VLAT (Very Large Air Tanker) think of the former B-52 bases/airstrips for the type of construction needed. To be fair the Russian IL-76 conversion they use for fires also has the same issues.

In regards to the CL-515 production has started but so far all the confirmed orders are to the EU as part of either national fleets (Croatia, Greece) or funded in part to work as part of an EU Squadron of 12 planes. There's been rumors of some of the Canadian provinces ordering new airframes but it depends on how each province works....Saskatchewan for example has just purchased some Dash-8Q400 water bombers to replace their old Convair 340 fleet. Alberta (4x CL-215T aside) and BC tend to rely mostly upon contracted fleets while Ontario/Quebec/Newfoundland have their own airframes.

But the "ducks" are always a great watch...even better when they're in optimal cycles and you're able to watch the airshow instead of manually lugging that water.

According to this article, 20 confirmed orders with first delivery now estimated for 2028. I doubt they know their rate of production but it seems any Canadian orders will have to wait. The 215s are getting pretty old and I imagine the type of duty this type of aircraft gets ages the airframes.

Bombardier was likely losing interest anyway but the order book had dried up for them towards the end.

 

[foresterab]

According to this article, 20 confirmed orders with first delivery now estimated for 2028. I doubt they know their rate of production but it seems any Canadian orders will have to wait. The 215s are getting pretty old and I imagine the type of duty this type of aircraft gets ages the airframes.

Bombardier was likely losing interest anyway but the order book had dried up for them towards the end.

A decent number of CL-215's and CL-415's had gone through some major overhauls. For example the Alberta CL-215's were upgraded through major rebuild to CL-215T and some of the CL-415's have been upgraded to CL-415 EAF. But yes...many have many hard hours of flying upon the airframes and the sheer wing load stress would make many planes due for replacement.

I do find it interesting that when I started in the late 1990's WW2 aircraft were common...and then it was 1950's (Convair 580's), and then 1960's (Lockhead L-188 or civilian P-3). 1970's (CL-215's) were the "modern" airframes. Now there are still some L-188 Electras, Bae-146/RJ-85 (a 1980's airframe) have replaced the Convair-580's, CL-415's (1990's), Air Tractor 802 (1990's) and the newest are the Bombardier Dash-8Q400 (2000-present).

Standards have changed, expectations of aircraft have changed making them faster to get to places and generally larger loads offered, and frankly the fleet turnover is faster. Partly due to the stress of flying/dropping large weights under tough conditions but also part supplies and increasingly more certification oversight.

What happens with helicopters will the next interesting chapter especially on the medium front.

 

[daftandbarmy]

A decent number of CL-215's and CL-415's had gone through some major overhauls. For example the Alberta CL-215's were upgraded through major rebuild to CL-215T and some of the CL-415's have been upgraded to CL-415 EAF. But yes...many have many hard hours of flying upon the airframes and the sheer wing load stress would make many planes due for replacement.

I do find it interesting that when I started in the late 1990's WW2 aircraft were common...and then it was 1950's (Convair 580's), and then 1960's (Lockhead L-188 or civilian P-3). 1970's (CL-215's) were the "modern" airframes. Now there are still some L-188 Electras, Bae-146/RJ-85 (a 1980's airframe) have replaced the Convair-580's, CL-415's (1990's), Air Tractor 802 (1990's) and the newest are the Bombardier Dash-8Q400 (2000-present).

Standards have changed, expectations of aircraft have changed making them faster to get to places and generally larger loads offered, and frankly the fleet turnover is faster. Partly due to the stress of flying/dropping large weights under tough conditions but also part supplies and increasingly more certification oversight.

What happens with helicopters will the next interesting chapter especially on the medium front.

Meanwhile, heading into retirement....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1822771456910209464

 

[foresterab]

Meanwhile, heading into retirement....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1822771456910209464

While I wish I could have seen it in operation (was on the wrong part of the fire last time it out here) it's also got serious issues in regards to parts. Current state of the sister airframe going to Arizona:

https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/philippine-mars-lands-at-patricia-bay-after-engine-trouble-9964902.

 

[dimsum]

Jon Stewart’s take on the GOP calling for strings on aid to CA wildfires. Starts at 3:50

Article below also quoted Stewart in the video:

“What the f— is wrong with you? Really, senator from Alabama? The state with the bottom in math, reading and test scores? Next time you get hit by a f—ing hurricane, why don’t we have a little parent-teacher conference to see if you got your scores up, you would get the money — or actually, let’s not do it ’cause you’ll get the money anyway ’cause we’re not f—ing psychos,” Stewart stated.

He continued, “Red states are always the tragic victims of circumstance outside of their control, and Democrats always vote for their aid, whereas blue-state disasters are a function of their flawed morality and policy, and if we help blue-state survivors, well, what message will that send? What lesson will they learn?”

Jon Stewart Blasts Right-Wing “Cruelty” In Wanting To Attach Strings To Wildfire Aid, Makes Satirical GoFundMe Ad Called “GoF—You”

Jon Stewart blasts the GOP's response to L.A.'s wildfire disaster, denouncing right-wing leaders' urge to attach strings to funds as 'psychotic.'

deadline.com

 

[Good2Golf]

What happens with helicopters will the next interesting chapter especially on the medium front.