A Deeply Fractured US

[Fishbone Jones]

A factor to consider is the Trump affect. When Obama was deporting loads of people with ICE, media was generally friendly about it. Today with Trump, the media will largely be very hostile. You're seeing the difference on TV.

Obama and Biden both used people turned back, at the border, as deportees for reporting purposes. Not that I care who did what. Suffice to say, ICE enforcement has been going on forever. It wasn’t until Trump was elected on border control and started deportations, that the anarchists got all discombobulated. Of course now, agitators are not against ICE for moral reasons. They are acting like they do because they are being paid by people like Soros and the Tides Foundation. Paid by people who want to see massive nationwide chaos in order to collapse the US republic.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I would argue the kind of aggression being seen from ICE is performative and tantamount to intimidation rather than mission focused on deportations.

Agree; if you believe the administration is not completely stupid then it's reasonable to assume one of their early aims was to slow border crossing attempts to a trickle. An uncompromising out-of-the-gates attitude would do that, and border crossing attempts have slowed to a trickle. It is the converse of the "message" sent by early Biden administration policies that triggered a massive migration wave.

People forget. Obama hired Hohman, the same guy, to ramp up deportations. Obama was called "Deporter-in-Chief" by most of the left and some Republicans and deported more than Trump's first term. But how many clashes did ICE have back then with the average citizen?

Out of all attempts, some are immediately turned back before they can enter the US and fill criteria which entitle them to "due process". Of those not turned back, some (typically most) are intercepted and (theoretically) begin their legal journey to determine whether they may remain or not, and the remainder are "gotaways". Of the intercepts, some will show up for their hearings, and some of those will be deported.

Turn back, intercept, and gotaway statistics all depend on the number of attempts and the amount of effort put into enforcement at the borders. Deports depend on intercepts. An administration whose policies encourage attempts and only weakly try to control the border can post impressive deport numbers because the two input numbers on which it depends are very large.

It's irresponsible to send signals that encourage people to attempt long risky journeys through gauntlets like the Darien Gap and human traffickers. It would be cruel if the intent was to mostly allow illegal immigration while creating another weak gauntlet to turn some people, more or less randomly, into deportation statistics to satisfy critics.

 

[brihard]

On the topic of ICE and warrants to enter homes, the entire thread below is very much worth a read.

Thread by @ReichlinMelnick on Thread Reader App

@ReichlinMelnick: 🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutiona...…

threadreaderapp.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/2014095587528884455

Immigration officers assert sweeping power to enter homes without a judge's warrant, memo says

An Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo obtained by The Associated Press reveals that the agency allows immigration officers to forcibly enter homes to make arrests without a judicial warrant.

apnews.com

Ugh. Eventually someone who finds themself not protected by the 4th amendment is going to resort to the 2nd. That’s gonna be a bad day when (at this point I no longer believe ‘if’) that happens.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Ugh. Eventually someone who finds themself not protected by the 4th amendment is going to resort to the 2nd. That’s gonna be a bad day when (at this point I no longer believe ‘if’) that happens.

When that happens one side is going to celebrate and the other side will act like it's WW III.

I hope non-goon police officers aren't hit in the crossfire or targeted when people finally have enough. And I hope they have the courage to stand up to Trump when he launches.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... ICE should not behave the way it is currently behaving.

The way ICE behaves does not derogate from the administration's authority to enforce ...

I like to think most people would be thinking "yeah, something's gotta be done about people that are overstaying their documentation re: the rules, but maybe there's better ways of doing this."

In the end, though, where does the fed buck ultimately stop? And who sets the tone, even if they don't say, "yeah, it's ok to be dicks"?

Also, no matter how worthy the "what" may be, the administration does itself no optics favours doing shit like this during the "how" phase, either.

White House posts digitally altered image of woman arrested after ICE protest

Guardian analysis shows images are the same, with Nekima Levy Armstrong looking composed in original but sobbing after alteration

www.theguardian.com

White House Doctored Photo With Google AI to Make It Look Like an Activist Was Sobbing During Perp Walk

An Intercept analysis confirmed that the White House used Google AI tools to alter the photo of Minnesota activist Nekima Levy Armstrong.

theintercept.com

White House Admits to Sharing a Fake Photo of Minnesota Activist After Her Arrest

“The memes will continue,” an official said in response to criticism of the altered image.

www.notus.org

 

[Navy_Pete]

They are in plenty of red states also.

Texas and Florida have the highest arrest rates for all states.

You don’t hear about other places much because many are cooperating with ICE.

Are they also arresting a 5 year old, using them as bait, and arresting their father before firing them off to a detention center, despite being legally there and with having no criminal record in the red states as well? Entering houses without warrants? Seizing random people?

Or are the peopel in red states just taking it like cowards? And if so, why do they need all their guns to protect themselves from a tyranical government?

 

[Jarnhamar]

Or are the peopel in red states just taking it like cowards?

Yes.

And if so, why do they need all their guns to protect themselves from a tyranical government?

They're taking a When in Rome approach.

 

[HavokFour]

Are they also arresting a 5 year old, using them as bait, and arresting their father before firing them off to a detention center, despite being legally there and with having no criminal record in the red states as well? Entering houses without warrants? Seizing random people?

Or are the peopel in red states just taking it like cowards? And if so, why do they need all their guns to protect themselves from a tyranical government?

Oh but it gets worse. They are very clearly actively targeting families with children now, gotta' meet those quotas.

Offering up food is an incredibly suspect thing to do, especially from an agency like ICE. This is after multiple instances of them showing up at drop off and pick up times specifically to grab parents and kids.

This is the exact kind of thing that's going to end up with someone exercising their 2nd.

Minnesota Elementary School Sends Urgent Message as ICE Sends Flyers Offering Food Support to Families - MeidasTouch News

Families at Anne Sullivan STEAM School received a verified message about ICE flyers as enforcement ramps up in Minneapolis.

meidasnews.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

Oh but it gets worse. They are very clearly actively targeting families with children now, gotta' meet those quotas.

Offering up food is an incredibly suspect thing to do, especially from an agency like ICE. This is after multiple instances of them showing up at drop off and pick up times specifically to grab parents and kids.

This is the exact kind of thing that's going to end up with someone exercising their 2nd.

Sounds too bizarre to be true. Time will out, I suppose.

Shame the message authors weren't more specific than "we have learned that". Anonymous tip? Someone identifiable and in a position to know?

 

[QV]

Sounds too bizarre to be true. Time will out, I suppose.

Shame the message authors weren't more specific than "we have learned that". Anonymous tip? Someone identifiable and in a position to know?

If demonstrated not true, you can't hate the MSM enough.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I like to think most people would be thinking "yeah, something's gotta be done about people that are overstaying their documentation re: the rules, but maybe there's better ways of doing this."

An over-reaction is still a reaction.

Here is an article by "Liberal Patriot" contributor Ruy Teixeira, quoting at length another Substacker (Noah Smith - "Noahpinion") here. They identify what they see as an unwillingness among Democrats to confront their own responsibility for sowing seeds. When I write that Democrats have created problems that the administration is trying to fix, I am not pulling that opinion out of my own fundament.

The illegal immigration problem was easy to create; it essentially requires no effort except to stand down from enforcement. It is much harder to reverse (enforce). Political reality intrudes: the administration has at most four years, and maybe only two depending on how midterms go. So they're in a bit of a hurry, and one way of speeding things up is to surge. Admission standards loosen up; training time shortens; and add in whatever else they've done to cut corners. This is, as usual, observation and implies no endorsement. People who oppose immigration enforcement and not just immigration enforcement done poorly are also in the wrong.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... The illegal immigration problem was easy to create; it essentially requires no effort except to stand down from enforcement. It is much harder to reverse (enforce). Political reality intrudes: the administration has at most four years, and maybe only two depending on how midterms go. So they're in a bit of a hurry, and one way of speeding things up is to surge. Admission standards loosen up; training time shortens; and add in whatever else they've done to cut corners ...

All true enough, for sure. Still, as others have said in these parts, legal =/= right.

... People who oppose immigration enforcement and not just immigration enforcement done poorly are also in the wrong.

Fair enough as well.

As for the Democrats dropping the ball, also fair, but also as others smarter than me here have said in similar situations, it's up to the current management to fix things, and there seems to be a bit of what some consider pendulum overswing in the implemtation.

 

[Brad Sallows]

As for the Democrats dropping the ball, also fair, but also as others smarter than me here have said in similar situations, it's up to the current management to fix things, and there seems to be a bit of what some consider pendulum overswing in the implemtation.

How many man-hours of officialdom's time is consumed by one person entering the country illegally?

How many man-hours are (by customary processes) consumed to remove one person who entered the country illegally?

The administration is trying to undo four years' worth of the former (leaving aside the prior decades) in its own four years. If the time/efforts are unequal - and they are - some kinds of multipliers are needed. Then apply the multipliers necessary to overcome passive and active resistance. I do not expect them to come remotely close to removing all the illegals who entered during the Biden administration and since, and I doubt they expect to, either. Focus seems to be on identifying and removing those with criminal histories and associations, starting with the worst (violent criminals). Haste making waste, innocents are caught up. What practical alternatives exist that will remove at least several hundred thousand people? Are any being offered up by opponents of status quo willing to cooperate in order to achieve the aims?

The people in charge right now are very angry at how their predecessors behaved. I can guess that they do not much care about criticism, particularly from anyone associated with their predecessors. They are doing what administrations do: seeking/creating a favourable legal theory and applying it until successfully challenged; if stymied by the courts or Congress, they find another.

 

[Eaglelord17]

An over-reaction is still a reaction.

Here is an article by "Liberal Patriot" contributor Ruy Teixeira, quoting at length another Substacker (Noah Smith - "Noahpinion") here. They identify what they see as an unwillingness among Democrats to confront their own responsibility for sowing seeds. When I write that Democrats have created problems that the administration is trying to fix, I am not pulling that opinion out of my own fundament.

The illegal immigration problem was easy to create; it essentially requires no effort except to stand down from enforcement. It is much harder to reverse (enforce). Political reality intrudes: the administration has at most four years, and maybe only two depending on how midterms go. So they're in a bit of a hurry, and one way of speeding things up is to surge. Admission standards loosen up; training time shortens; and add in whatever else they've done to cut corners. This is, as usual, observation and implies no endorsement. People who oppose immigration enforcement and not just immigration enforcement done poorly are also in the wrong.

It is easy enough to reverse as well. As I said, one law, employing illegal immigrants results in jail time.

Suddenly there is no work and they leave on their own because they can’t survive without work.

The only reason this problem exists is American greed and a love of cheap illegal labour because there is no consequences for the exploiter. Take away the incentive and suddenly the problem goes away.

But we can’t do that, American citizens can do no wrong and instead we need the Gustapo going door to door dragging citizens from their homes and denying proper due process.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It is easy enough to reverse as well. As I said, one law, employing illegal immigrants results in jail time.

Suddenly there is no work and they leave on their own because they can’t survive without work.

The only reason this problem exists is American greed and a love of cheap illegal labour because there is no consequences for the exploiter. Take away the incentive and suddenly the problem goes away.

But we can’t do that, American citizens can do no wrong and instead we need the Gustapo going door to door dragging citizens from their homes and denying proper due process.

I’ve been saw all along, arrest those the employ illegal immigrants. Throw them in jail and seize their company and the problem will be solved within a month.

 

[QV]

I’ve been saw all along, arrest those the employ illegal immigrants. Throw them in jail and seize their company and the problem will be solved within a month.

That sounds super easy. And because it hasn't been done, I can guess it’s because they do not want to actually go after all illegals. They know it’s impossible. They have tightened up the border and they will expel as many really bad criminals as possible and call it a win. And that actually would be a win from status quo.

 

[lenaitch]

That sounds super easy. And because it hasn't been done, I can guess it’s because they do not want to actually go after all illegals. They know it’s impossible. They have tightened up the border and they will expel as many really bad criminals as possible and call it a win. And that actually would be a win from status quo.

The term "really bad criminal" is subjective, and is is often difficult to draw a straight line between the presence of criminals and arrests with publicly available information, but using ICE's own data for 2024, they don't don't seem to have embraced data driven law enforcement.

Arrest for 'criminal convictions' were about 38% of all arrests. Of that, about 6% were in the Chicago district which includes Minnesota. If they really wanted to go after "really bad criminals, they should be in their southern districts which account for almost half of their criminal arrests.

Maybe Minneapolis, Maine and six year olds aren't the droids they are looking for.

ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations Statistics

www.ice.gov

 

[The Bread Guy]

That sounds super easy. And because it hasn't been done, I can guess it’s because they do not want to actually go after all illegals.

Even though Trump himself has suggested jumping all over businesses employing undocumented/illegal immigrants, maaaaaaaybe they don't want to go after businesses? To be fair to the current administration, though (and I stand to be corrected), I can't remember any sweeping, broad-spectrum round-up of business owners employing undocumented/illegal immigrants under either Democrat or Republican administrations in recent memory - or at least not of the scale of rounding up individual workers.

 

[Good2Golf]

Even though Trump himself has suggested jumping all over businesses employing undocumented/illegal immigrants, maaaaaaaybe they don't want to go after businesses? To be fair to the current administration, though (and I stand to be corrected), I can't remember any sweeping, broad-spectrum round-up of business owners employing undocumented/illegal immigrants under either Democrat or Republican administrations in recent memory - or at least not of the scale of rounding up individual workers.

From the guy who tore down the East Wing with a Swedish excavator…

 

[brihard]

Looks like federal agents (probably ICE and/or CBP) just shot and probably killed another one in Minneapolis. This video is already making the rounds and regardless of the officer(s’?) articulation, this will explode.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2015095913396728130