All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[Halifax Tar]

Completely? No. But if they want to succeed you'd expect them to at least try an keep the colour close to the lines as to not expose themselves to obvious hole punching/ momentum deflating criticisms.

I think it's a given that they'll get the signatures. But I think that similar to Smith's APP push they'll run out of steam well before the finish line when the number geeks start said hole poking in earnest, and the fence sitters see the financial gaps.

I think you're trying inject reason and logic to a situation that's emotional and visceral.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I think you're trying inject reason and logic to a situation that's emotional and visceral.

I think the "wait, you mean there's not going to be an Alberta Child Benefit/ Old Age Security?" is going to be scratch/record stop moment with some emotional and visceral reactions.

My thoughts keep coming back to this article

Ken Boessenkool: Alberta isn't conservative

Figure this out now, or risk losing Alberta to the NDP for a generation

www.readtheline.ca

There are a lot of Albertans open to the idea of separation.

A lot, like the Alberta Pension furor- like the idea of the fairy tale. Who wouldn't want all the benefits with none of the costs.
I think that, like the pension, less will like it when they see the financial reality, and the costs of that fairy tale.

The real question is how many like separation on principal, and would go forward for a more realistic personal financial/service status quo/slight improvement

 

[Halifax Tar]

I think the "wait, you mean there's not going to be an Alberta Child Benefit/ Old Age Security?" is going to be scratch/record stop moment with some emotional and visceral reactions.

I am absolutely sure you are correct.

I would hope a post separation AB Gov will have something set up for that. If not its not a what's left of Canada problem.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I am absolutely sure you are correct.

I would hope a post separation AB Gov will have something set up for that. If not its not a what's left of Canada problem.

Neither the Prosperity Projects revenue structure nor it's mantra allow for them.

I still see Albertan's as Canadians. If they want to end that, it's their prerogative- but they deserve to make the choice based on accurate information. They deserve to see a Pro Forma budget, an accounting of what personal transfers and federal government services will be replaced (and with what) vs. cut.

Their being conned bothers the shit out of me.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Neither the Prosperity Projects revenue structure nor it's mantra allow for them.

I still see Albertan's as Canadians. If they want to end that, it's their prerogative- but they deserve to make the choice based on accurate information. They deserve to see a Pro Forma budget, an accounting of what personal transfers and federal government services will be replaced (and with what) vs. cut.

Their being conned bothers the shit out of me.

Never stopped the Quebec separatists, they wanted it all as well.

 

[Quirky]

Neither the Prosperity Projects revenue structure nor it's mantra allow for them.

I still see Albertan's as Canadians. If they want to end that, it's their prerogative- but they deserve to make the choice based on accurate information. They deserve to see a Pro Forma budget, an accounting of what personal transfers and federal government services will be replaced (and with what) vs. cut.

Their being conned bothers the shit out of me.

Do you live in Alberta?

 

[IKnowNothing]

Do you live in Alberta?

Use of the word they/their rather than we/our in the quoted post might be a hint.

Don't have to be from a place to be mad at them being fed lifechanging BS.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Do you live in Alberta?

I am from Alberta.

The Separatist Project is being run by bullshit artists.

I understand the anger, but they are selling a fairy tale.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I am from Alberta.

The Separatist Project is being run by bullshit artists.

I understand the anger, but they are selling a fairy tale.

In your opinion, are they:
#Believers who truly think the math will work out when business flows in and oil flows out and/or just completely out to lunch (Ignorant Idealists)
Or
Implying to Albertans that their entitlements and services will remain intact but with the benefit of flat 10% income taxes to entice a yes vote while fully intending/envisioning an Alberta without said entitlements and services and/or another form of outcomes not matching promises (Malignant Manipulators)

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Honest question. Is there really any difference between this thread and the many pages of the Quebec one? If so, what are they?

 

[GR66]

Honest question. Is there really any difference between this thread and the many pages of the Quebec one? If so, what are they?

Juste le sous-texte
Just the subtext

 

[Remius]

Honest question. Is there really any difference between this thread and the many pages of the Quebec one? If so, what are they?

Some similarities yes.

Alberta separation seems to be based on economic grievances

Quebec separation seems to be based on cultural grievances.

And the geographic/demographic and economic situations are somewhat different.

Both face similar challenges to create an independent state with very different elements affecting those challenges.

 

[IKnowNothing]

A broader look without my admittedly caustic commentary

https://public.tableau.com/shared/JBJ4JMGP8?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

Important to note, a separate Alberta is ostensibly starting from the position of recouping a $20B net surplus, but:

• This infographic blurs the line between provincial and individual funds to give a comprehensive view.
• Gaining on pension isn't contributing to Provincial budgets- and the smart bet would be to maintain those premiums in the short run to build up a nest egg for demographics catching up (Proportion of population over 65 has gone from 12 to 15.2 since 2016, and that's with estimates of negative net migration of the 50-65 cohort from 2015-2020). Once the APP it's own thing you can't wash your hands of the liability owed to people retiring out of province/republic.
• The Prosperity Project's stated plan of Straight 10% Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax and promise to get rid of all Federal tax (would include Sales and Excise) would forgo $56.9B, turning that 20B surplus into $30.8B dollar funding gap relative to status quo
• A 1% of GDP armed forces spend would account for an additional ~3.5B, not the only program they'd now be responsible for

 

[Blackadder1916]

With the easing of requirements to trigger a referendum in Alberta, I got to wondering what proposal would easily gather the number of signatures necessary, especially since it wouldn't have to meet any minimum in a specific riding. It's possible that a proposal to make the first $200,000 (or another amount) of property value exempt from the provincial education property tax would not only meet the petition number of signatures but could also be acceptable to a majority of voters.

I wonder what the reaction of the Smith government would be to groups making use of her easing "citizen initiative" guidelines when citizens take the initiative in something her party may not support.

Oh, I got the property tax idea from listening to Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis.

 

[dapaterson]

With the easing of requirements to trigger a referendum in Alberta, I got to wondering what proposal would easily gather the number of signatures necessary, especially since it wouldn't have to meet any minimum in a specific riding. It's possible that a proposal to make the first $200,000 (or another amount) of property value exempt from the provincial education property tax would not only meet the petition number of signatures but could also be acceptable to a majority of voters.

I wonder what the reaction of the Smith government would be to groups making use of her easing "citizen initiative" guidelines when citizens take the initiative in something her party may not support.

Oh, I got the property tax idea from listening to Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis.

Like Florida, they can make up the resulting deficit by... checks notes... taxing foreigners seeking warm weather in the winter.

 

[IKnowNothing]

With the easing of requirements to trigger a referendum in Alberta, I got to wondering what proposal would easily gather the number of signatures necessary, especially since it wouldn't have to meet any minimum in a specific riding. It's possible that a proposal to make the first $200,000 (or another amount) of property value exempt from the provincial education property tax would not only meet the petition number of signatures but could also be acceptable to a majority of voters.

I wonder what the reaction of the Smith government would be to groups making use of her easing "citizen initiative" guidelines when citizens take the initiative in something her party may not support.

Heh. Based on the polling, a proposal to legislatively enshrine commitment to the CPP and confederation for a given time period (75 years?) could have ironic legs.

If I were a devoutly "No" Albertan of means- setting up that dual referendum would be a hilarious method of campaigning

 

[The Bread Guy]

Another tidbit: a hard-hard-left analysis explaining why FN's and at least some labour unions oppose AB separation/secession.

Canada’s “Maple MAGA” Secessionists

Alberta’s right-wing separatist push, driven by political opportunism and petro power, could pose a serious challenge to Canadian democracy — with potentially wide-ranging consequences for workers, the economy, public services, and the country as a whole.

jacobin.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Another tidbit: a hard-hard-left analysis explaining why FN's and at least some labour unions oppose AB separation/secession.

Canada’s “Maple MAGA” Secessionists

Alberta’s right-wing separatist push, driven by political opportunism and petro power, could pose a serious challenge to Canadian democracy — with potentially wide-ranging consequences for workers, the economy, public services, and the country as a whole.

jacobin.com

Wow, no bias there

 

[Good2Golf]

Are you aware of how much capital flight there has been since Notley and Trudeau?

I missed the part where Toronto screwed Albertans by voting Notley in as Premier…

 

[The Bread Guy]

Wow, no bias there

Right? These are the guys accusing Jagmeet of not being socialist ENOUGH!