All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[lenaitch]

I've read Alberta consists of 60% Provincial crown land, 30% privately owned, 10% Federal crown land.

Not surprised since most Crown land is devolved to the provinces (Ontario is apparently ~85% provincial Crown land). Most federal Crown land is held as FNTs, National Parks, CF bases, etc.

 

[RangerRay]

Jen Gerson is not holding back, and she's bang on.
Jen Gerson: A few thoughts on leadership

Yep. You can’t even argue she’s trying to get in front of the parade. She’s trying to keep her party together by winking to the minority of her party.

Were she a real leader, she would either become a full-on separatist and make the case for separation, or she would be squaring off with the separatists in her own party and make the arguments why they’re wrong.

She’s being so passive aggressive, it’s not funny.

 

[HavokFour]

I guess we can expect more businesses to start speaking up. ATCO is pretty significant.

Alberta separatism talk ‘unhelpful’ and driving away investment: ATCO CEO | Globalnews.ca

ATCO CEO Nancy Southern said Asian partners in a major hydrogen project say they won't make final investment decisions unless there is certainty around the separatism question.

globalnews.ca

Alt: https://archive.is/bMEBP

 

[brihard]

I guess we can expect more businesses to start speaking up. ATCO is pretty significant.

Alberta separatism talk ‘unhelpful’ and driving away investment: ATCO CEO | Globalnews.ca

ATCO CEO Nancy Southern said Asian partners in a major hydrogen project say they won't make final investment decisions unless there is certainty around the separatism question.

globalnews.ca

Alt: https://archive.is/bMEBP

Business hates uncertainty. When deciding how and where to spend, that can be what pushes them to pick the next best option for how they use their capital. A province that may not stay a part of its country will be toxic to a lot of businesses considering major investments.

Smith needs to see this as a warning shot across the bow. She could say Alberta’s residents and businesses need and deserve clarity, actually stake out not just her own but her party’s position, and call a referendum for, say, the fall to settle the matter for the foreseeable future. Get the answer and move on with whatever direction that points the provincial government.

 

[Remius]

I guess we can expect more businesses to start speaking up. ATCO is pretty significant.

Alberta separatism talk ‘unhelpful’ and driving away investment: ATCO CEO | Globalnews.ca

ATCO CEO Nancy Southern said Asian partners in a major hydrogen project say they won't make final investment decisions unless there is certainty around the separatism question.

globalnews.ca

Alt: https://archive.is/bMEBP

Not like we don’t have have precedent for this sort of thing…

 

[Remius]

Business hates uncertainty. When deciding how and where to spend, that can be what pushes them to pick the next best option for how they use their capital. A province that may not stay a part of its country will be toxic to a lot of businesses considering major investments.

Smith needs to see this as a warning shot across the bow. She could say Alberta’s residents and businesses need and deserve clarity, actually stake out not just her own but her party’s position, and call a referendum for, say, the fall to settle the matter for the foreseeable future. Get the answer and move on with whatever direction that points the provincial government.

Concern is that with the threshold for calling for a referendum being lowered is that it might just happen over and over again by multiple separatist groups.

 

[PrairieFella]

Concern is that with the threshold for calling for a referendum being lowered is that it might just happen over and over again by multiple separatist groups.

If ATCO doesn't like uncertainty in AB, MB is open for business

 

[Good2Golf]

If ATCO doesn't like uncertainty in AB, MB is open for business

MATCO sounds like a budget auto body shop, though…

 

[PrairieFella]

MATCO sounds like a budget auto body shop, though…

The price we pay lol

 

[Blackadder1916]

Concern is that with the threshold for calling for a referendum being lowered is that it might just happen over and over again by multiple separatist groups.

There is a time limit on repeating the process. Five years from the last unsuccessful try.

Alberta King's Printer:

An application must not relate to a proposal that in the opinion of the Chief Electoral Officer is the same as or substantially similar to

(a) a proposal that, within the last 5 years, the Chief Electoral Officer has determined to be unsuccessful under section 11, or

 

[QV]

Business hates uncertainty. When deciding how and where to spend, that can be what pushes them to pick the next best option for how they use their capital. A province that may not stay a part of its country will be toxic to a lot of businesses considering major investments.

Smith needs to see this as a warning shot across the bow. She could say Alberta’s residents and businesses need and deserve clarity, actually stake out not just her own but her party’s position, and call a referendum for, say, the fall to settle the matter for the foreseeable future. Get the answer and move on with whatever direction that points the provincial government.

There is always a little pain when you rip the Band-Aid off.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Concern is that with the threshold for calling for a referendum being lowered is that it might just happen over and over again by multiple separatist groups.

I was only half joking that a "no" group should leverage the lower threshold to twin up the first referendum with a sister question to put the issue to bed

 

[SeaKingTacco]

There is always a little pain when you rip the Band-Aid off.

You are delusional.

Quebec lost a generation of growth due to their frigging around with Separatism. And Quebec Society is about 100 times more cohesive than Alberta Society, but people/business still left.

Alberta is an english language jurisdiction with no distinct culture (I say that as an Albertan who has lived all over Canada). If separatism gathers steam in Alberta, people/business/investment will run for the doors.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Don Braid: Quebec's $129-billion equalization bonanza — the idiocy is finally sinking in​

 

[QV]

You are delusional.

Quebec lost a generation of growth due to their frigging around with Separatism. And Quebec Society is about 100 times more cohesive than Alberta Society, but people/business still left.

Alberta is an english language jurisdiction with no distinct culture (I say that as an Albertan who has lived all over Canada). If separatism gathers steam in Alberta, people/business/investment will run for the doors.

I gather you're in this camp: "It's only possible for Quebec to petition for separation because french. Only many other landlocked or sub 5M population countries could ever exist, specifically not resource rich Alberta who borders the US. All investment will flee, zero will be new or return after the JT exodus years. Alberta has no cultural identity and should just submit to the culturally and ethically sophisticated easterners."

You are delusional for dismissing this as nothing. I say this as a Canadian who has lived all over the country and has been all over the world.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I gather you're in this camp: "It's only possible for Quebec to petition for separation because french. Only many other landlocked or sub 5M population countries could ever exist, specifically not resource rich Alberta who borders the US. All investment will flee, zero will be new or return after the JT exodus years. Alberta has no cultural identity and should just submit to the culturally and ethically sophisticated easterners."

You are delusional for dismissing this as nothing. I say this as a Canadian who has lived all over the country and has been all over the world.

Do not put words into my mouth.

Alberta Separatism is not nothing. There are legitimate grievances. Trudeau Jr was warned, repeatedly, that he was playing with fire by constantly making the resource sector (mainly based in rural BC/AB/SK/MB) carry the can for his climate change fantasies. Either he was too stupid or too arrogant to see the possible damage. Not sure.

But.

That stupidity does not now empower western bullshit artists with delusions of grandeur and no sense of economics to make an equally but oppositely damaging separation proposal.

The chance is here under Carney (I would have preferred a CPC win, because I think the Liberals needed punishing for 10 years of their bullshit) and his faction to actually do some good and repair some damage to Canada as a whole.

 

[Good2Golf]

You are delusional for dismissing this as nothing. I say this as a Canadian who has lived all over the country and has been all over the world.

So what model is the best for Alberta then, and what odds would you give it for happening?

 

[QV]

Do not put words into my mouth.

Alberta Separatism is not nothing. There are legitimate grievances. Trudeau Jr was warned, repeatedly, that he was playing with fire by constantly making the resource sector (mainly based in rural BC/AB/SK/MB) carry the can for his climate change fantasies. Either he was too stupid or too arrogant to see the possible damage. Not sure.

But.

That stupidity does not now empower western bullshit artists with delusions of grandeur and no sense of economics to make an equally but oppositely damaging separation proposal.

The chance is here under Carney (I would have preferred a CPC win, because I think the Liberals needed punishing for 10 years of their bullshit) and his faction to actually do some good and repair some damage to Canada as a whole.

The time for airing "legitimate grievances" is over. Alberta has been petitioning for improvements within a united Canada for a long time with no result. It is now put up or shut up and we all live the outcomes.

Alberta has the means and the ability to go fully independent - IF a healthy majority are willing. AB is likely one of the few provinces in a position to do so. All the comments about 'can't' and 'won't' are background noise.

Carney has certainly been saying things to signal a good faith effort (despite his past). It remains to be seen if he can deliver and I remain pessimistic due to the LPC decade of stagnation which has widespread support outside the west, the regional obstructionism and regional divisions who want to remain the spoiled brats of the nation having an outsized voice on matters directly impacting other provinces and the nation as a whole.

 

[Remius]

The time for airing "legitimate grievances" is over. Alberta has been petitioning for improvements within a united Canada for a long time with no result. It is now put up or shut up and we all live the outcomes.

So if the answer is no does this mean they should just shut up then and stop complaining? No, didn’t think so.

Alberta has the means and the ability to go fully independent - IF a healthy majority are willing. AB is likely one of the few provinces in a position to do so. All the comments about 'can't' and 'won't' are background noise.

Alberta separatists certainly think that. For the record I think they can too. But not as a very successful indépendant country and certainly not better off.

Carney has certainly been saying things to signal a good faith effort (despite his past). It remains to be seen if he can deliver and I remain pessimistic due to the LPC decade of stagnation which has widespread support outside the west, the regional obstructionism and regional divisions who want to remain the spoiled brats of the nation having an outsized voice on matters directly impacting other provinces and the nation as a whole.

Things do indeed remain to be seen. For hardcore separatists any effort won’t be enough.

 

[QV]

So what model is the best for Alberta then, and what odds would you give it for happening?

There are four paths. The likelihood of anyone path would vary greatly dependent on time, circumstance, and whether all or some are available at the time. So to entertain your question with pure wild ass guesses:

The best model is one where the nation recognizes provinces equally, promotes patriotism and nation building projects, recognizes national strategic assets and ensures unimpeded internal and export market access. WAG odds based on last few decades and considering MC's past and recent comments: 3/10.

The second best model is full independence so the territory may pursue the above unimpeded. WAG odds at this point in time 4/10.

The third best model is 51st state, where the above seems to already happen. WAG odds 3/10.

The worst model is being subdued within a nation that suppresses potential and causes divisions while feeding and catering to those behind that. WAG odds 7/10.

Opinions will vary.