All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[Blackadder1916]

. . . She could say Alberta’s residents and businesses need and deserve clarity, actually stake out not just her own but her party’s position, and call a referendum for, say, the fall to settle the matter for the foreseeable future. Get the answer and move on with whatever direction that points the provincial government.

Smith has already indicated that it is unlikely, even with the easier criteria proposed in the not yet passed amendment, for the question to be included in this fall's scheduled municipal election (Oct 20).

Alberta separation vote would require citizen push, not government will, says Premier Danielle Smith | Claresholm Local Press

With municipal elections scheduled for October, Smith was asked whether a referendum could be held at the same time if a citizen-led petition meets the required threshold.

She said that while referendums have been held during municipal elections in the past, the timing likely wouldn’t work this time with just 120 days remaining for the polling.

The referendum act is written so that such questions are included in provincial general elections, municipal elections or, if there isn't one of those on the horizon, in a separate poll.

During the last municipal election (2021) we had two provincial referendum questions (equalization payments and DST) as well as a local municipal plebiscite question (putting flouride back in our water supply - cue General Ripper).

 

[QV]

Things do indeed remain to be seen. For hardcore separatists any effort won’t be enough.

The hardcore will never be pacified. But their voice can be reduced to background noise.

Separation is no longer limited to the hardcore in Alberta. The government of the day will determine if they fan that flame or dampen it.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Separation is no longer limited to the hardcore in Alberta. The government of the day will determine if they fan that flame or dampen it.

My understanding is DS is not in support of secession. What she wants is a sovereign Quebec opps sorry I mean Alberta inside Canada.

We created this mess when we made some pigs more equal than others.

 

[Remius]

The hardcore will never be pacified. But their voice can be reduced to background noise.

Hard to do that with the current premier’s dog whistling and playing political survival games. But yes, the complaining from that group will continue.

Separation is no longer limited to the hardcore in Alberta. The government of the day will determine if they fan that flame or dampen it.

But you said it’s time to put up or shut up. It won’t matter what they do with that thinking.

 

[Remius]

My understanding is DS is not in support of secession. What she wants is a sovereign Quebec opps sorry I mean Alberta inside Canada.

She’s playing a survival game right now. Dogwhistles and such. The proof will be when she decides what to actually campaign for or against when the time comes. A time she made easier to achieve.

 

[brihard]

Concern is that with the threshold for calling for a referendum being lowered is that it might just happen over and over again by multiple separatist groups.

Right- but once the first referendum happens, at least there will be a greater degree of certainty. With it completely up in the air, ATCO doesn’t know what to do. If they run a referendum and get, say, 21% in favour, well, ATCO now knows with much greater certainty that they can breathe easily and continue investing in the province because separation isn’t a viable risk.

The provincial government has chosen to make this easier to put on the table, and has chosen to make it part of its policy that this could plausibly happen. Therefore the provincial government now owns part of that problem. They would serve their province best by at least allowing the uncertainty to be resolved.

 

[IKnowNothing]

There are four paths. The likelihood of anyone path would vary greatly dependent on time, circumstance, and whether all or some are available at the time. So to entertain your question with pure wild ass guesses:

The best model is one where the nation recognizes provinces equally, promotes patriotism and nation building projects, recognizes national strategic assets and ensures unimpeded internal and export market access. WAG odds based on last few decades and considering MC's past and recent comments: 3/10.

The second best model is full independence so the territory may pursue the above unimpeded. WAG odds at this point in time 4/10.

The third best model is 51st state, where the above seems to already happen. WAG odds 3/10.

The worst model is being subdued within a nation that suppresses potential and causes divisions while feeding and catering to those behind that. WAG odds 7/10.

Opinions will vary.

17 / 10 chance that either something happens or nothing happens.

 

[QV]

Isn't it fun indulging hypotheticals? The point is there are non-zero chances of separation in one way or the other, with some ways more likely.

17/10 probably more accurately describes the Canadian lack of will to make this country reach it's potential as a united country.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Separatism in Canada is a fruitless pursuit; nowhere are the conditions really ready for it. People severely disaffected by status quo should simply "go Galt" and live their best lives around the faults of the country. If someone is so dissatisfied as to be seriously prepared to separate, he ought to be motivated enough to emigrate to somewhere that better fits his preferences. If you think the Canadian wheel is going to break, just let it break.

 

[Halifax Tar]

17/10 probably more accurately describes the Canadian lack of will to make this country reach it's potential as a united country.

Agreed here.

 

[Good2Golf]

The best model is one where the nation recognizes provinces equally, promotes patriotism and nation building projects, recognizes national strategic assets and ensures unimpeded internal and export market access. WAG odds based on last few decades and considering MC's past and recent comments: 3/10.

Dare to dream. Agree this would be the best…don’t see it happening anytime soon, particularly with Carney’s new environment minister.

She’s playing a survival game right now. Dogwhistles and such. The proof will be when she decides what to actually campaign for or against when the time comes. A time she made easier to achieve.

So Vegas odds on the NDP running. Down the middle after a PC-Wildrose split?

 

[Remius]

Dare to dream. Agree this would be the best…don’t see it happening anytime soon, particularly with Carney’s new environment minister.


So Vegas odds on the NDP running. Down the middle after a PC-Wildrose split?

Possible yes. But as far as I can tell smith is still playing games with calling a bi election and running out the clock on that for nanshi to be able to run for seat right now…

 

[Blackadder1916]

Dare to dream. Agree this would be the best…don’t see it happening anytime soon, particularly with Carney’s new environment minister.


So Vegas odds on the NDP running. Down the middle after a PC-Wildrose split?

But such is the coalition that begat the Wildrose and spawned the UCP, the possibility exists the split could be PC-Wildrose(electoral reformers)-Wildrose(hard social conservatives). Personally, I think Smith sits amongst all flavours of Wildrose having, as is her wont, taken the opportunity to gain a personal advantage, but with a slight (emphasize slight, but willing to use to meet her ends) discomfort leading social conservatives.

 

[The Bread Guy]

One of AB's First Nations is re-igniting some 2022 litigation of the province's Sovereignty Act.

Cree Nation demands Alberta government respond to 2022 lawsuit

Onion Lake Cree Nation launched the lawsuit in 2022, saying the sovereignty act infringes on treaty rights.

www.aptnnews.ca

Onion Lake Cree Nation to proceed with legal challenge of Alberta sovereignty act

Alberta’s bill lowering the bar for a separation referendum has spurred a First Nation to push ahead with a legal challenge against the premier’s flagship sovereignty act.

www.ctvnews.ca

Onion Lake Cree Nation presses ahead with legal challenge to Alberta’s Sovereignty Act

Last-minute amendments to Alberta's referendum legislation won't stop Onion Lake Cree Nation (OLCN) from pursu...

panow.com

Indigenous groups in Alberta file lawsuit over possible separatism referendum

The Onion Lake Cree Nation says its move is a response to separatist rhetoric which violates treaty rights

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[HavokFour]

I guess we can expect more businesses to start speaking up. ATCO is pretty significant.

Alberta separatism talk ‘unhelpful’ and driving away investment: ATCO CEO | Globalnews.ca

ATCO CEO Nancy Southern said Asian partners in a major hydrogen project say they won't make final investment decisions unless there is certainty around the separatism question.

globalnews.ca

Alt: https://archive.is/bMEBP

Following up on the ATCO CEO speaking out.

Jason Kenney, Alberta’s first UCP premier, warns that its second one could kill investment with her separation talk

Danielle Smith is ‘playing with fire,’ says the guy who sparked the flames!

albertapolitics.substack.com

Alt: Jason Kenney, Alberta’s first UCP premier, warns that its second one could kill investment with her separation talk | Ghostarchive

 

[Jarnhamar]

Doesn't Alberta have 1/3 our land forces, and all of our tanks?

 

[Halifax Tar]

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

Lol a little levity lol

 

[The Bread Guy]

Doesn't Alberta have 1/3 our land forces, and all of our tanks?

And Ukraine had a ton of nukes, too, but ....