Bush Orders Syria Out Of Lebanon

[mdh]

Here is one of the better analyses (Jerusalem Post) I've seen on the Hezbollah rally - it suggests that even the Party of God is recognizing that Lebanon may be on the cusp of a new era, cheers, mdh

Analysis: Hizbullah might heat up northern border
By DAVID RUDGE
       

Hizbullah, after its demonstration of people power in Beirut on Tuesday, could try to carry out attacks, either by itself or through proxies, against targets along the northern border in the near future, according to a leading analyst.

"I would not be at all surprised if Hizbullah tried to do something in an attempt to convince the Lebanese people that Israel is still the enemy," said Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor, director of the University of Haifa's National Security Studies Center.

"The authentic sentiment of the Lebanese, however, is for peace and quiet, especially in south Lebanon, to allow them to claim there is no justification for the continued presence of the Syrians."

Any action initiated by Hizbullah would be aimed at provoking a response that it could use for its own pro-Syrian and anti-American propaganda purposes.

Nevertheless, Ben-Dor believes that such a tactic will not lead to an escalation, nor would it succeed in convincing the majority of Lebanese.
"Barring a really major provocation by Hizbullah resulting in many Israeli casualties, I don't see the northern border heating up," he said. "I believe that Israel will exercise extreme restraint for reasons of grand policy and strategy, even in the face of extreme provocation."

He said Hizbullah was trying to revive the "Zionist enemy" card and stoke up anti-Israel feeling in an effort to use this as a unifying factor.

"It is unlikely to gain much support, except among Hizbullah followers, and I don't think it will succeed, certainly not in the long term. This is more like a rearguard action to delay the inevitable â “ a more independent Lebanon without a massive Syrian presence," he said.

According to Ben-Dor, the anti-Israel rhetoric espoused by Hizbullah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah at the mass rally in Beirut was primarily aimed at the US.

"Nasrallah knows full well the reality of global politics that pit the US against Syria at this time, so he is once again using Israel as a surrogate when he is really referring to the West and America in particular," he said.

Nasrallah may have had this in mind when the organization carefully chose its slogans for the staged rally, to which, according to reports, thousands of people were brought by buses from all over Lebanon, especially the south.

Nasrallah is aware of the intense international pressure, headed by the US and France but also from some Arab and Muslim countries, that is being exerted and that could, ultimately, lead to Hizbullah losing Syrian patronage and support.

Ben-Dor said it was highly significant that the pro-Syrian demonstration contained a central theme that was acceptable to all Lebanese and that left the door open for a dialog between Hizbullah and the so-called opposition.

"There is a general consensus over the slogan, used by Nasrallah at the rally, 'Lebanon for the Lebanese.' It has the consent of all the ethnic groups, Christians, Sunnis, Druse and Shi'ites," he said. "Nasrallah, is aware that times are changing and that a close relationship with Syria might no longer be possible. He is, therefore, trying to represent Hizbullah as a patriotic Lebanese organization, rather than an emissary of Iran and Syria.

"It is quite possible that Hizbullah is testing the waters about the possibility of becoming, at some future point, more concerned with Lebanese politics than military actions in the south," Ben-Dor said.

In the interim, troops along the northern border are remaining on full alert in case of attempts by Hizbullah, or other terrorists operating under its auspices, to launch attacks

 

[pbi]

Pretty significant "apart from", don't you think?

Yes-you're right. I guess I drifted off my point. What I was trying to get at (not very well...) was that over the long course of history,the majority of suffering by Jews in Palestine has IMHO nothing to do with Arabs. The "conventional wisdom" comment that we hear constantly being thrown around that the Arab/Jew conflict "has been going on for centuries" is IMHO rubbish, much like its sister comment on the interethnic strife in Yugoslavia, also a very recent product of 20th century politics.

Cheers.

 

[Acorn]

pbi, not an analysis often seen, however correct it is. It shows that "history" often becomes a product of politics.

In any case, there has been an undercurrent of "Lebabon for the Lebanese" for a number of years, with flare-ups of anti-Syrian sentiment occurring from time to time. Hariri's assassination was huge though, the most significant Lebanese political figure to be assassinated since the civil war ended.

Who did it? I don't think one can conclusively blame the Syrians (at least not as a collective). Syrian politics is remarkably fragmented, though this is not always obvious. Bashar Assad's hold on power is not so strong as some would like to think, and there are internal forces in Syria that need to be considered. There are also internal Lebanese forces that cannot be discounted. Finally, there is Israel, which doesn't have a perfect record as far as making the right decisions goes.

I find most western commentary on Syria to be remarkably simplistic and either uninformed or politically slanted. Syrian society is undergoing a revolution, which is not very obvious, after over 30 years of relative stagnation under Assad Sr., because it is mostly hidden. It remains to be seen whether this revolution will have a positive or negative effect on the country and the Middle-East.

Acorn

 

[ZipperHead]

Demonstrations continue in Lebanon
Rice: Syria 'out of step'
U.S.: Iran deceiving world
Blair puts pressure on Syria

You guys are too serious here. I was amazed I was the only army guy here who spotted this and wanted to run with it: "Look at my son Syria..... the only one in step!!!"

Ok, I'll go away now....

Al

 

[mdh]

I find most western commentary on Syria to be remarkably simplistic and either uninformed or politically slanted. Syrian society is undergoing a revolution, which is not very obvious, after over 30 years of relative stagnation under Assad Sr., because it is mostly hidden.

Acorn,

Just curious as to what you see as the evidence for this revolution? Are you suggesting that Assad will somehow initiate his own version of a Baathist glasnost?

cheers, mdh

 

[Acorn]

I'll try to stay in my lane.

I'd say the revolution is economic. Lots more "middle-class" type of business springing up, not a Baathist "glasnost" by any means, as I'm not sure Assad even intends it to happen. There are other social factors that I won't go into at this point.

Acorn