CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[Journeyman]

Given Article 7...

Article 5.  7 just says that NATO doesn't supersede the UN.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I'm not saying those troops don't deserve arty support but realistically, we have 37 M777's, lets say five are used as training aids at the various schools. 32 guns is only 8 batteries to cover 3 CMBG's, the math doesn't sound like we have assets we can afford to loose.

???

You reasoning is all fucked up in my mind - kit shouldn't sit around *state-side* that should be deployed into a theatre/mission.  Mission is what we are supposed to be about.  Home and garrison/hanger/jetty life is about training for the mission (where ever it may be).  We have a small navy, and a small LRP fleet for the size of the country and coasts we have, yet (some of) those assets are deployed outside Canada almost continuously. 

 

[Lightguns]

If the balloon goes up, we will have two choices: join the coalition to liberate Latvia or; negotiate for the release of our troops being held in a gulag in Siberia. 

 

[dapaterson]

If the balloon goes up, we will have two choices: join the coalition to liberate Latvia or; negotiate for the release of our troops being held in a gulag in Siberia.

"So, Canadian soldiers.  We have freed you from prison in Siberia, just in time to get you back to Wainwright for Maple Resolve '19."

"Umm... do we have to leave Siberia?"

 

[MilEME09]

???

You reasoning is all ****ed up in my mind - kit shouldn't sit around *state-side* that should be deployed into a theatre/mission.  Mission is what we are supposed to be about.  Home and garrison/hanger/jetty life is about training for the mission (where ever it may be).  We have a small navy, and a small LRP fleet for the size of the country and coasts we have, yet (some of) those assets are deployed outside Canada almost continuously.

All I'm saying is that battery would be more useful in my opinion in the follow up force, that said I am not an expert on strategic military planning.

 

[MarkOttawa]

What "follow-up" force from Canada? How/when might it ever arrive?  Where would it deploy? Not likely Latvia.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Eye In The Sky]

All I'm saying is that battery would be more useful in my opinion in the follow up force, that said I am not an expert on strategic military planning.

But, this isn't a "Canada only" operation right?  Part of the strength of NATO, or any coalition, is all the smaller parts each country contributes all combined into the big machine.  So, it might only be *1 battery*, or heck, even a Regiment isn't much in the BIG scheme of things but every little bit counts.  If / when the SHTF in any kind of op area, the guys and gals there will be HAPPY to have battery fire, vice "sorry, we got nothin' '"!  :2c:

 

[MarkOttawa]

Two tweets:

1) Reinforcing:

V @cezarysta-#NATO #EFP in #Baltics tripwire indeed

https://twitter.com/Mark3Ds/status/852620068416630789

Base on RAND study:

The Abilities of the British, French, and German Armies to Generate and Sustain Armored Brigades in the Baltics
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1629.html

2) How fast to go nuclear (decades-old question):
https://twitter.com/jdcushman/status/852618868904349697

Jeremiah Cushman‏ @jdcushman

Jeremiah Cushman Retweeted Tuomo Rusila

Is a fight in the Baltics going to be conventional for more than a few days?

Tuomo Rusila @tuomorusila
"ground units are undermanned, overextended and lack equipment"

Report: Europe’s armies too slow for a Baltic clash https://www.stripes.com/news/report-europe-s-armies-too-slow-for-a-baltic-clash-1.463325#.WO-G-y2xSI_.twitter …

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MilEME09]

What "follow-up" force from Canada? How/when might it ever arrive?  Where would it deploy? Not likely Latvia.

Mark
Ottawa

Where really would depend on the situation on the ground once forces from Canada arrive. Assuming it's full on war said follow up force would be what ever high readiness CMBG is on call while we call up everything else.

 

[MarkOttawa]

MilEME09: One fears that's rather a cloud cuckoo land scenario. 

Mark
Ottawa

 

[YZT580]

The odds of a follow-on group from Canada range from remote to non-existent.  How would we get them there?  On our C-17s you say, so who flies escort?  By ship, you say?  Whose, says I?  And what will the opposing subs be doing in the meantime.  We don't have a merchant navy to draw on and we don't have the navy to protect them.  You had better hope that the Brits, French and Germans can do better in getting reinforcements on scene than they say they can because that Canadian group on site will be the only Canucks on site for a significant length of time.

 

[MarkOttawa]

YZT580: BZ
:bowing:

Mark
Ottawa

 

[George Wallace]

The odds of a follow-on group from Canada range from remote to non-existent.  How would we get them there?  On our C-17s you say, so who flies escort?  By ship, you say?  Whose, says I?  And what will the opposing subs be doing in the meantime.  We don't have a merchant navy to draw on and we don't have the navy to protect them.  You had better hope that the Brits, French and Germans can do better in getting reinforcements on scene than they say they can because that Canadian group on site will be the only Canucks on site for a significant length of time.

Why we would "RENT" them of course......from our European NATO allies.  [

I am sure that is what all our 'Leaders' with no military experience, nor any study of history and economics, seem to think.  :dunno:

 

[Eye In The Sky]

The odds of a follow-on group from Canada range from remote to non-existent.  How would we get them there?  On our C-17s you say, so who flies escort?  By ship, you say?  Whose, says I?  And what will the opposing subs be doing in the meantime.  We don't have a merchant navy to draw on and we don't have the navy to protect them.  You had better hope that the Brits, French and Germans can do better in getting reinforcements on scene than they say they can because that Canadian group on site will be the only Canucks on site for a significant length of time.

*Red Storm Rising* Battle of the Atlantic scenario;  USN and NATO work to keep the SLOCs open so reinforcements can make it.  Better reinforce Iceland quick.  :nod:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There is enough airliners and cargo carriers to get the troops and some supplies to France quickly and the UK could provide fighter escort for the Eastern part. But they will have no heavy equipment. In a perfect world you would have equipment stored at numerous bases including tanks, trucks and APC's, and you would have similar in Canada for training and the incoming troops could fall unto that equipment that has been maintained by contractors and a small number of troops. That equipment could be held there on a lease basis, with a caveat that if Canada does not commit the troops in a crisis, the leaser can hand over the equipment to someone who will.

 

[daftandbarmy]

*Red Storm Rising* Battle of the Atlantic scenario;  USN and NATO work to keep the SLOCs open so reinforcements can make it.  Better reinforce Iceland quick.  :nod:

I was deployed to Arctic Norway with UK AMF (L) when Canada cancelled it's sealift reinforcement option, in 1986 I think?

Yeah, we had a great reputation about that time. I think that was the year I changed my accent.

Edited following some Google-fu to add the wiki about the CAST debacle. Sad reading, indeed!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Air-Sea_Transportable_Brigade_Group

 

[The Bread Guy]

This on how the troops can spend down time & what to expect - highlights mine ...

As Canada prepares to stand up a multi-national NATO battle group here this summer, army commanders have come up with a plan to prevent their soldiers being exploited by the Kremlin via “honey pots,” “gentlemen’s clubs” and other such temptations: hockey, hockey and more hockey.

The plan is for the 450 Canadian troops bound for Latvia as part of a tripwire against Russian aggression to be confined to their base, about a half-hour drive northeast of Riga, for the first few months after they arrive. This is partly because there will be much work to be done before the unit can be declared combat-ready. But there are also grave concerns that Russia will try to undermine the Canadian mission by attacking it with “kompromat” and “dezinformatsiya,” as it has already done with a similar NATO enhanced forward-presence battle group from Germany which is up and running in neighbouring Lithuania.

Even after the newcomers, mostly drawn from 1 Battalion, Princess Patricias Canadian Light Infantry, are certified sometime in August as operationally effective, they will be allowed off base only on “supervised cultural days,” the commander, Lt.-Col. Wade Rutland, said after leading a live-fire exercise last week involving other NATO forces training in Latvia. Those excursions may include visits to museums, theatres, parks and restaurants.

But the centrepiece of the leisure activities will be hockey games against each other and against Latvian military and civilian teams at the four rinks near the base the Canadians will share with the Latvian army and a small number of soldiers from Albania, Italy, Spain, Slovenia and Poland.

“There will be no 48-hour weekend passes,” the colonel said, referring to the good old days during the Cold War when Canadians stood watch against the Red Army in Germany.

German troops in Lithuania have already been targeted twice by Russian propagandists through what has become known as “hybrid warfare.” Within days of their arrival emails claiming German troops had raped an underage Lithuanian girl were sent to a leading Lithuanian politician and reported on by local media outlets. Police investigated and concluded that there was no evidence at all to support such a claim. More recently a photo-shopped image of the German commander, Lt.-Col. Christoph Huber, appeared on a blog along with the fiction that he was a Russian spy who was “not loyal to NATO or to Lithuania, but is a strong supporter of Russian policy.”

Russia circulated similar fabrications when it seized Crimea from Ukraine. “We are taking it very seriously,” Rutland said. Every effort would be made to keep soldiers “on the straight path.”

The Canadian soldiers’ familiarization process for the mission has already begun with a series of detailed briefings about ways Russia may attempt to embarrass them.

Chief Warrant Officer Michael Forest, who has just spent three weeks in Latvia, is to be responsible for ensuring discipline. “We are educating our leadership to look for certain things and to try to avoid those situations where a provocation could happen,” the sergeant-major said. Because “a bright light will be shining on us all the time, we are going to set the conditions through policy. If you go for a pizza there will be a fire team, you will not be alone.”

Col. Ilmars Lejins, the Latvian infantry brigade commander assigned to work closely with Canadians said “the short answer is that we can expect many things” from Russia’s prolific propaganda machine. “Will it happen that there will be a Canadian with two heads and four eyes rampaging around Riga? Of course, there will be ‘news’ like that,” Lejins said. “How do you combat things like that? The first thing is to talk to each other and have common sense. Ask yourself if that is reliable. What the military will do, the Latvians and the Canadian Forces, will be to have a very straightforward two-way conversation with the press and Latvian citizens.” ...

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

This on how the troops can spend down time & what to expect - highlights mine ...

It's going to be a long six months  ;D.  Basically, a six month long MAPLE RESOLVE! 

Sounds like the troops will need regular milk runs to Poland, they hate the Russians so any fisticuffs would probably be welcome. 

 

[Fabius]

I am very skeptical of what the military is trying to achieve by confining the Cdn portion of the BG to the base. 
If they think that will halt the Russian IO attempts, they will, I believe, be proven badly wrong.  The IO campaign is not based in facts so what does it matter from a Russian perspective if the Canadians are or are not confined to the base.  The best that can be achieved in this context is the Canadian military saying “Nope, not us. All our troops were confined to base.”  Not sure that is actually something that should be counted as an effective counter.

I believe that confining the troops to the base and not allowing them to socialize with the population they are there to protect is actually counterproductive.  First let’s remember that Latvia is a modern European country and they are a stable, fairly prosperous NATO ally. They are not hostile, even if a segment of their population may hold pro-Russian sentiments.  To move our forces in and establish a FOB mentality given that context seems stupid and incredibility risk adverse to the point of self-defeating.  An effective counter to the IO campaign is having the troops involved and present doing routine things that people do so that the population sees Canadian soldiers going about their affairs (official or otherwise).  In doing so the population would get to know the Canadians to various degrees and would then in their own social networks discount and discredit the Russian IO.  However that concept is not tidy or clean and does come with its own risks. Sadly it’s apparently not something that we are able to accept or implement.

I wonder what the other contributing countries to the Latvian BG are doing in this area.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I am very skeptical of what the military is trying to achieve by confining the Cdn portion of the BG to the base. 
If they think that will halt the Russian IO attempts, they will, I believe, be proven badly wrong.  The IO campaign is not based in facts so what does it matter from a Russian perspective if the Canadians are or are not confined to the base.  The best that can be achieved in this context is the Canadian military saying “Nope, not us. All our troops were confined to base.”  Not sure that is actually something that should be counted as an effective counter.

I believe that confining the troops to the base and not allowing them to socialize with the population they are there to protect is actually counterproductive.  First let’s remember that Latvia is a modern European country and they are a stable, fairly prosperous NATO ally. They are not hostile, even if a segment of their population may hold pro-Russian sentiments.  To move our forces in and establish a FOB mentality given that context seems stupid and incredibility risk adverse to the point of self-defeating.  An effective counter to the IO campaign is having the troops involved and present doing routine things that people do so that the population sees Canadian soldiers going about their affairs (official or otherwise).  In doing so the population would get to know the Canadians to various degrees and would then in their own social networks discount and discredit the Russian IO.  However that concept is not tidy or clean and does come with its own risks. Sadly it’s apparently not something that we are able to accept or implement.

I wonder what the other contributing countries to the Latvian BG are doing in this area.

The irony is, we let soldiers roam around freely in places of infinitely greater danger than Latvia (it's not dangerous at all).  Think of all the UN Observers who live off the economy in beautiful places like The Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Lebanon, Haiti, etc.

I remember being in Jamaica and a Company from 2 RCR showed up for a month of training, there were no restrictions concerning remaining on base.  This was funny considering Jamaica is one of the most dangerous countries in the Caribbean with usually two to three murders DAILY.  I was there for nearly six months and was free to roam around as I wished.  I drove around the entire island and visited Kingston weekly.  Of course, part of my country indoc involved receiving a very detailed intelligence brief from a Jamaican Intelligence Officer concerning where to avoid, including a nice detailed map with areas of danger highlighted, detailed briefs on criminal organizations, political issues, etc. 

This decision is purely for domestic consumption, i.e. avoid any Op HONOUR/Disorderly Conduct that could paint the CAF in a negative light that our national media can grab a hold of.