CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[The Bread Guy]

Haven't seen these shared elsewhere, so here's a bit more on the general defensive plan.

Canada’s Plan for a Trade War: Pain for Red States and Trump Allies

Canadian officials are preparing retaliatory measures if the new U.S. administration imposes tariffs on Canadian imports.

www.nytimes.com

Canadian government ready to reveal initial retaliation plan Monday if Trump starts ‘trade war’

The Canadian government is ready to respond with proposed retaliatory tariffs on an initial round of American goods on Monday if U.S. president-elect Donald Trump moves to immediately levy tariffs on inauguration day, sources confirm to CTV News.

www.ctvnews.ca

Looks like 3 tiers (bits rom NYT)





Also, this from Ontario

Ford says Ontario is ready to unleash ‘additional retaliatory measures’ if Trump’s tariffs materialize

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says the province is standing by with 'additional retaliatory measures' if incoming U.S. president Donald Trump follows through on his tariff threat when he takes office on Monday.

www.cp24.com

More from the Ontario info-machine:

Ontario Newsroom

news.ontario.ca

 

[Brad Sallows]

If there's a "war", it's a war with Trump, not America. Politicians talking as if they've lost sight of that fact ought to be ignored.

 

[Kirkhill]

While we have been locking up hydrocarbons, especially LNG terminals ....

North America​

[edit]

• Kenai LNG, Nikiski, Alaska (mothballed 2017 - expansion and reactivation under discussion)
• Cheniere Energy Sabine Pass terminal (Louisiana) opened 2016
• Cove Point LNG, Maryland terminal converted to export 2018
• Cheniere Energy Corpus Christi terminal, Texas opened 2018
• Freeport LNG terminal, Quintana Island, Texas converted to export 2019
• Cameron LNG, Hackberry, Louisiana converted to export 2020
• Southern LNG, Elba Island, Georgia – (Kinder Morgan) converted to export 2019
• Costa Azul LNG near Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico opened 2024/25
• Solensa (small scale) near Monterrey, Mexico

Under construction:

• Plaquemines opened 2024
• Corpus Christie Stage III - IOC March 2025
• Golden Pass - IOC December 2025
• Rio Grande - IOC 2026
• Port Arthur - IOC 2026/28
• LNG Canada (Kitimat) - IOC 2025
• Woodfibre LNG (Squamish) - IOC 2027
• Cedar LNG (Kitimat) - IOC 2029
• Fast LNG Altamira FLNG2 - export started 2024
• Energia Costa Azul - IOC 2025

And the Aussies have built 10 since 1989 with 7 or 8 currently in production.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If Ottawa is waiting for Trump to make the first move, that could be a good thing.

Especially if Trump decides to wait until after our election.

I don't get a warm fuzzy having trudeau in charge of this, along with Notley and Charest as part of that team.

I wouldn't be surprised to see trudeau fuck this up royally, on purpose and in spite, as a going away gift to us.

Trump doesn't want to deal with trudeau or anyone connected to him. He sees them as two faced, whiney idiots and he's not wrong.

 

[Kirkhill]

I'll bet that the three phase proposal coming out of the States now is closer to the reality.

I believe that Trump is committed to putting tariffs back on the table as a legitimate tool for managing trade and raising revenue.
I also believe that talking about a 25% tariff on Canada, prior to becoming the President, is having his desired effect - getting everybody jittery.
25% tariff on Canada is a more effective threat to Europe than the prospect of 60% on China.

I think that a baseline 10% tariff, across the board and employed as a budgeting tool, would be about right.

I also think that a sliding scale from 0% to 25% would get the desired reactions from his trading partners.

In other words, 25% imposed immediately to take effect if and when. Unless we do the other thing, in which case the rate will drop down to the Most Favoured Nation rate (something in the 0-10 range).

 

[The Bread Guy]

If Ottawa is waiting for Trump to make the first move, that could be a good thing.

That would actually make sense, thereby giving it the kiss of death

Especially if Trump decides to wait until after our election.

I don't think he's going to wait anywhere near that long, but he does have a number of balls he says will be in the air, so we'll see -- I'd be happy to be wrong.

 

[Remius]

Good news if this is the case.

 

[ArmyRick]

I find this to be a much more sensible solution to dealing with Trump than attempting a dollar for dollar trade war in which we suffer terribly. Way to go, Premier Smith

 

[Remius]

I find this to be a much more sensible solution to dealing with Trump than attempting a dollar for dollar trade war in which we suffer terribly. Way to go, Premier Smith

Looks like a damage control tour with friendly media.

 

[ArmyRick]

Looks like a damage control tour with friendly media.

You are not getting her priorities. She has a responsibility to Alberta first, where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.

 

[AmmoTech90]

You are not getting her priorities. She has a responsibility to Alberta first, where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.

Some one should tell her that because, from the viewpoint of someone in her riding, she has an obligation to the Laurentian Albertan elite and the crack pots who got her elected as the leader of the party. She is decimating the provincial programs that support the most vulnerable and propping up subsidies to cronies.

 

[ArmyRick]

Some one should tell her that because, from the viewpoint of someone in her riding, she has an obligation to the Laurentian Albertan elite and the crack pots who got her elected as the leader of the party. She is decimating the provincial programs that support the most vulnerable and propping up subsidies to cronies.

This your opinion and views or have you got something concrete to back it?

 

[AmmoTech90]

Lived experience of myself and friends. Or is that too woke for you to consider? Also critical listening to news outlet reporting of government actions.

Where do you get your local Alberta news?

 

[brihard]

I find this to be a much more sensible solution to dealing with Trump than attempting a dollar for dollar trade war in which we suffer terribly. Way to go, Premier Smith

Doesn’t sound like she’s had any success in getting a sneak preview of what’s to come, nor negotiating any tariff carve-outs for her province or for Canada generally.

I don’t know offhand if America has surplus domestic oil reserves sitting idled at higher marginal production costs that could become profitable to bring online if WCS oil eats tariffs. I.e., if it becomes 10 or 15 or 25% more expensive for American refineries to import Alberta oil, could that allow for, say, shale oil or gas deposits to become profitable to develop where they currently aren’t? That would run a risk of long term supply substitution away from Canada. We’ve seen how Alberta bitumen oil can be profitable to extract or not, depending on spot price. Assuming tariffs would equally hit other potential sources of oil imports (which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but I’ll go with it to reduce variables), tariffed Canadian oil will need to compete with America’s potential to increase domestic production.

If America tariffs our oil, but does not impose equal tariffs on other overseas producers (say someone in another oil producing country succesfully curries Trump’s favour), we could end up in a really bad place indeed.

 

[brihard]

More on the provincial front: Doug Ford continues to prepare Ontario’s own response to tariffs, including sweeping the shelves of the LCBO of American products. Make Labatt 50 great again!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-tariffs-trump-inauguration-executive-orders-1.7435832

 

[suffolkowner]

Doesn’t sound like she’s had any success in getting a sneak preview of what’s to come, nor negotiating any tariff carve-outs for her province or for Canada generally.

I don’t know offhand if America has surplus domestic oil reserves sitting idled at higher marginal production costs that could become profitable to bring online if WCS oil eats tariffs. I.e., if it becomes 10 or 15 or 25% more expensive for American refineries to import Alberta oil, could that allow for, say, shale oil or gas deposits to become profitable to develop where they currently aren’t? That would run a risk of long term supply substitution away from Canada. We’ve seen how Alberta bitumen oil can be profitable to extract or not, depending on spot price. Assuming tariffs would equally hit other potential sources of oil imports (which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but I’ll go with it to reduce variables), tariffed Canadian oil will need to compete with America’s potential to increase domestic production.

If America tariffs our oil, but does not impose equal tariffs on other overseas producers (say someone in another oil producing country succesfully curries Trump’s favour), we could end up in a really bad place indeed.

at face value Canadian oil should be the number one thing out of Canada Trump should put a tariff on since it is such a huge part of the trade imbalance that he dislikes so much

 

[ArmyRick]

Lived experience of myself and friends. Or is that too woke for you to consider? Also critical listening to news outlet reporting of government actions.

Where do you get your local Alberta news?

I get my ALL my news from these sources (I focus on national shit to be honest), CTV (Top choice), Northern Perspective, CBC (yup believe it or not I watch David Cochrane), Rebel News, Global.

I have several friends in ALberta and I lived there very briefly many years ago. My friends are about 3/4 pro Smith/O & G and 1/4 anti-Smith/O & G

I am allowed an opinion if thats ok?

The woke discussion is another forum, keep it there.

 

[ArmyRick]

at face value Canadian oil should be the number one thing out of Canada Trump should put a tariff on since it is such a huge part of the trade imbalance that he dislikes so much

The weird thing is, America refines it and up sells it by 200-300% (BIG profit margin)

 

[suffolkowner]

The weird thing is, America refines it and up sells it by 200-300% (BIG profit margin)

im sure there will be lots of opposition to it within the US

 

[brihard]

at face value Canadian oil should be the number one thing out of Canada Trump should put a tariff on since it is such a huge part of the trade imbalance that he dislikes so much

It’s more than double our entire trade surplus with them. Energy independence is something Trump has frequently made noise about. We need to be prepared for him to try to knock down our oil exports to the U.S. regardless of any other policy or diplomatic concerns. It’s wholly consistent with MAGA isolationism. Issues like the border give him political top cover for policies that would increase the cost Americans pay for gas and groceries for the time it takes to bring more domestic hydrocarbon production online.