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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

The Canadian commitment to NATO 2% says you're wrong. Canada has displayed master class dithering across all governments. Trump has forced the issue he thinks is important to be the top priority for others. Not a single Canadian politician is now waking up in the morning and not thinking about Trump's tariff threats. Trump's chaotic approach has forced Canada's hand where the normal reaction would have been platitudes and can kicking (the 'we'll meet 2% by the year 2085' kind of bs).

But dithering is.

Making decisions isn't.

That is the essence of Canada. In all fields.

All it takes is for somebody to start generating headlines and our politicians scuttle. We love our consensus and turf people with convictions as scary and/or arrogant. That applies to both teams red and blue.
 
The problem for Canada is that it's not just that it doesn't meet, it's at the very bottom. Secondly, Canada's contribution (or lack of) directly impacts defence of North America which is of prime concern for the US. So the issues created by Canada are far more compounded for the US than other NATO countries.

We should know by now that Trump will wield any stick (trade issues etc) he can to achieve the outcomes (defence spending, access etc) he's looking for.

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…

BBC has good coverage of the tariff issues today.


Lots of European focus today of course, but very importantly, earlier today Lutnick was commenting about what’s on the table and what’s not:



Steel, aluminum, and probably cars- we’re in this for the long haul, and Trump may ride those tariffs all the way to and through certain industries crashing.

Trump also spoke further on Canada in the past hour:
Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need 😉).
 
I also estimate that Carney will be the one most likely to negotiate a closer CAN/USA relationship. He favored the EU over BREXIT, I could see him leading the charge to make "NAU" happen.
 
Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…


Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need 😉).
10's of billions is probably not enough to Trump. He wants to see 100's. That kind of scale up.
 
I can be in favour of certain aspects of this. Such as, a Schegen like agreement on standards of individuals being granted the privilege to enter into North America, a 'commonality approach' between us. I could be potentially in favour of allowing citizens (not certain if I'm on board with 'landed immigrants, green card holders, individuals on student visa or international recognised refugees or alyssum seekers and of course undocumented individuals) to freely cross the border.
I also estimate that Carney will be the one most likely to negotiate a closer CAN/USA relationship. He favored the EU over BREXIT, I could see him leading the charge to make "NAU" happen.
 
Over the life of the programs it will be 100s of billions, but at this rate, I’d trust the Europeans more not to screw us over, so I’d gladly transition from USD to EUR…

Again, saying we'll spend XX now but over 40 years it will be XXX might not be enough.

And I wouldn't get your hopes up trusting the EU more than the US, it doesn't look too shit hot over there. The Americans are and will remain our closest and most trusted ally despite the temporary orange wrecking ball.

Our biggest challenge is to obtain a credible military for a G7 in the shortest amount of time. One of the ways to raise the funds for that is through our resources. And will includes supplying one of the world's largest economies - the US.
 
Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…
But 1.34% for FY25 is still nowhere near 2%, and Canada is absolutely nowhere near the 20% of DND Budget for Capital Equipment purchases.

While I do not agree with P47's Tariff approach, Canada is a Defense Freeloader, and has been for decades.

Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need 😉).
Who needs power after all ;)
 
But 1.34% for FY25 is still nowhere near 2%, and Canada is absolutely nowhere near the 20% of DND Budget for Capital Equipment purchases.

While I do not agree with P47's Tariff approach, Canada is a Defense Freeloader, and has been for decades.
How would you deal with the decades of freeloading? Considering the history of platitudes and now all of the things going on (Russia, massive debt for US, etc), what would you do to compel a big jump in defence spending of your allies?
 
Over the life of the programs it will be 100s of billions, but at this rate, I’d trust the Europeans more not to screw us over, so I’d gladly transition from USD to EUR…
The goal should not be to transition from US to European kit but rather to switch to Canadian-produced kit where possible - either domestic industry or joint ventures with other countries (US, European, South Korean, Aussie, Japan, etc.).

Ideally we want a level of control over the production and use of our military gear. Everyone is in panic mode over the possibility of the US limiting our ability to use their kit, but do you recall in the earlier stages of the Ukraine War the European countries refusing to export certain weapons?

Let's not just trade one master for another but rather take this opportunity to gain as much independence as we can.
 
But 1.34% for FY25 is still nowhere near 2%, and Canada is absolutely nowhere near the 20% of DND Budget for Capital Equipment purchases.

While I do not agree with P47's Tariff approach, Canada is a Defense Freeloader, and has been for decades.
How would you deal with the decades of freeloading? Considering the history of platitudes and now all of the things going on (Russia, massive debt for US, etc), what would you do to compel a big jump in defence spending of your allies?
Freeloading? On what scale? 158 lives lost being one of the very first responders to USA after 9/11?

Canada paying in blood many, many, many times along side, or to support America aside, if the freeloading was so egregious then why didn’t America do anything substantial about it earlier…including POTUS 45…whose only action was to sign USMCA…so… 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
Freeloading? On what scale? 158 lives lost being one of the very first responders to USA after 9/11?

Canada paying in blood many, many, many times along side, or to support America aside, if the freeloading was so egregious then why didn’t America do anything substantial about it earlier…including POTUS 45…whose only action was to sign USMCA…so… 🤷🏻‍♂️

We weren’t able to arrange a medical exemption.
 
Freeloading? On what scale? 158 lives lost being one of the very first responders to USA after 9/11?

Canada paying in blood many, many, many times along side, or to support America aside, if the freeloading was so egregious then why didn’t America do anything substantial about it earlier…including POTUS 45…whose only action was to sign USMCA…so… 🤷🏻‍♂️

Bottom line Canada is not living up to it's commitments or it's potential. Are you saying there should have been something more substantial done to Canada sooner? Well that is kind of a dumb statement. The fact is something substantial is being done now and we need to react (we shouldn't be in a position to have to react, but here we are.)

Is our response to correct course or in a fit of emotion and ego bite back, take our ball, and go find another friend? I don't think the latter will work out like everyone thinks it will.
 
Bottom line Canada is not living up to it's commitments or it's potential. Are you saying there should have been something more substantial done to Canada sooner? Well that is kind of a dumb statement. The fact is something substantial is being done now and we need to react (we shouldn't be in a position to have to react, but here we are.)

Is our response to correct course or in a fit of emotion and ego bite back, take our ball, and go find another friend? I don't think the latter will work out like everyone thinks it will.


To make a case to go from no substantive action to stating an intention to financially force annexation is by no means a reasonable escalation.

Are you saying it is?
 
To make a case to go from no substantive action to stating an intention to financially force annexation is by no means a reasonable escalation.

Are you saying it is?

Of course not. But was anyone expecting anything less than a wrecking ball from Trump 2.0? And we know that is temporary. Why position ourselves for further harm? We can weather this and come out far better than before.
 
Actu
Freeloading? On what scale? 158 lives lost being one of the very first responders to USA after 9/11?

Canada paying in blood many, many, many times along side, or to support America aside, if the freeloading was so egregious then why didn’t America do anything substantial about it earlier…including POTUS 45…whose only action was to sign USMCA…so… 🤷🏻‍♂️
Actually the Americans have been trying for years to point this out for years but we've been joyfully ignoring them...... and reality.
 
Accuracy is important in these discussions, Canada's spending is 6th from the bottom in terms of percentage of GDP ahead of Iceland, Spain, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Belgium and is 6th in total spending behind the USA, Germany, the UK, France and Italy.

Obviously not good and we desperately need that moolah but it isn't true that we're at the bottom.

Let's amplify on that: Here are, in order, the GDP of all NATO members whose GDP exceed a trillion dollars: (1) USA, 29.2T (2) Ger 4.7T (3) UK 3.65T (4) FR 3.2T (5) ITA 2.4T (6) CAN 2.25T (7) SPA 1.72T (8) NED 1.25T and (9) TURK 1.2T.

Funny enough, we are both the sixth highest GDP and the 6th biggest spender even with what we currently spend. I would call that normal.

Also, I am getting sick and tired of people constantly saying we are freeloading, especially off the Americans. The Americans didn't go into NATO to defend Canada, they did it because it was in their defense interest. They didn't enter into NORAD agreement because they wanted to defend Canada, they did it because it was in their defense interest. And we are not freeloading on that one: name me a single time where we did not fulfill our obligations as negotiated from time to time with the US as regards NORAD. The US did not "join" the Permanent Joint Defense Board and resulting joint defense approach to North America to defend Canada (Ok, maybe a little on that one since the premise was FDR's speech sating the US would never accept another country's attack on Canada and would move to defend Canada - and the reciprocal undertaking by Canada to "do all in our power so that no other country would ever use Canadian territory to attack the USA"), but again they did it because it is in their own national defense interest.

Are we so badly defended then? IIRC the last time someone tried to invade us was in 1812-1814 - and it was the Americans! Other than that, we did participate in wars in foreign lands beside allies on a frequent basis and, after a fashion to get up to speed, in a more than satisfactory way. So again, what is wrong with the way we deal with national Defense?

So, we spend a little over 1.2% of our GDP on defense, while the US spends 3.4%. But here's a little secret: The US spends it all on the defense of its own defense interests, every last penny. The US decided after WWII that it would be unchallenged militarily by any other country, or even group of countries, and that is their approach to defense spending.

Here is another little secret - of US internal politics, this one - Trump will never reach his own new bright line of 5% of GDP spent on defense. That would require the USA to almost double its current pending on defense, already the single largest expenditure, with a right wing congress that will absolutely refuse to raise taxes and US annual deficits already considered by many congressmen / senators to be out of control.
 
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