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CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

He was quite litterally in a meeting with the Premiers and appearing in a joint press conference this afternoon.
Well at least he’s doing something. I’m at work so news can be scarce unless it’s about crime
 
I happen to think, given the highly integrated nature of the pipeline and refining network in North America, that cutting off oil supplies to the US would have the effect of many Canadian markets also running out of refined product, because we import from US refineries.

We are potentially shooting ourselves.

Let the Americans scream bloody murder when the price of gas goes up dramatically next week. We had nothing to do with it. The refineries have to buy WCS in the near term, because they are tuned for it. There is no other reasonable source, other than maybe Venezuela.
 
I remember hearing a comment once on CGAI's Energy Security Cubed podcast that has stuck with me. The statement was something along the lines of "we don't export energy to the United States, we export jobs".

The oil and natural gas we export to the United States feeds American refineries which produce the fuels the US uses to feed its own economy as well as export to the rest of the World. Similarly, the electricity we export to the States powers their manufacturing industries and the raw materials we export allow them to build the products that drive their economy. The same argument can be made for the manufactured components we produce for their automotive and other industries.

To my mind this is the argument that we should be pushing with the incoming US administration as well as the Senators, members of Congress, State Governors, etc. of all the States who's industries we feed. At the same time we continue to address their security concerns (which we should be doing anyway for our own sakes).
 
I happen to think, given the highly integrated nature of the pipeline and refining network in North America, that cutting off oil supplies to the US would have the effect of many Canadian markets also running out of refined product, because we import from US refineries.

We are potentially shooting ourselves.

Let the Americans scream bloody murder when the price of gas goes up dramatically next week. We had nothing to do with it. The refineries have to buy WCS in the near term, because they are tuned for it. There is no other reasonable source, other than maybe Venezuela.
I believe you’re right.

In our own strategic interest, Energy East should have been pushed through. We let economy grow into vulnerability. Canadian oil and gas should be able to reach export terminals on either coast. Our dependence on American infrastructure to get around the Great Lakes is a vulnerability that we should have stopped risking our in Trump’s first term.

If America wants to buy our oil we should sell it to them. If that desire shrinks, we need to be able to get it to market elsewhere.
 
I believe you’re right.

In our own strategic interest, Energy East should have been pushed through. We let economy grow into vulnerability. Canadian oil and gas should be able to reach export terminals on either coast. Our dependence on American infrastructure to get around the Great Lakes is a vulnerability that we should have stopped risking our in Trump’s first term.

If America wants to buy our oil we should sell it to them. If that desire shrinks, we need to be able to get it to market elsewhere.
It comes down simply to options - the more options you have, the better choices you can make and ultimately the better off you are - clearly we have very very limited options in terms of our oil. Once again our Canadian 'cheapness' in doing something that requires as little effort/foresight/cost/vision/planning as possible has kneecapped us. If we had built more than one pipeline to the West Coast and one straight through the heart of the country to Quebec City and even possibly to the Halifax area back in the early/mid 1980s, we'd be in an entirely different situation than we currently are.
 
A good example of bad economic policies driving business out of Canada, which will make us even more vulnerable to any tariff action by the US.

This review is likely too little, too late, and focused on the wrong issues e.g., the high cost of doing business in a socialist and actively anti-private sector culture ;)

Province launches review of BC Timber Sales

New forests minister Ravi Parmar puts together panel of forest experts to conduct review

Province launches review of BC Timber Sales
 
I happen to think, given the highly integrated nature of the pipeline and refining network in North America, that cutting off oil supplies to the US would have the effect of many Canadian markets also running out of refined product, because we import from US refineries.

We are potentially shooting ourselves.

Let the Americans scream bloody murder when the price of gas goes up dramatically next week. We had nothing to do with it. The refineries have to buy WCS in the near term, because they are tuned for it. There is no other reasonable source, other than maybe Venezuela.
I agree. I see threats of cutting them off as an exercise in brinksmanship that no one wins.

But a "Strategic Product Export Tax" should 100% be on the table. There are certain products of ours that US demand will be pretty close to inelastic to in the short run- we absolutely cannot let DJT have his cake and eat it too if he tries to exempt them. We should even consider upping the ante and adding it on top of his tariffs if those products are not exempt. Flow the proceeds directly back to the provinces to support their own citizens and industries as they best see fit.
 
First of all this incompetent Liberal government should not be negotiating with Trump. Let alone, Parliament is prorogued, not functioning due to the Green Slush fund scandal, and wasting time electing a new Capt of the Titanic.
Canada's debt is now more the all the debt of all previous governments in Canada's history that included two world wars.

In one year Trudeau increased the deficit from a WAG of $40.1 Billion to $62 Billion.

We pay more interest payments on the debt than we do on health services.

And this is the government is negotiating with Trump? Joly?

Smith has plan to stop feds from looting Alberta (AGAIN) to pay for tariff crisis

The headline says it all. Aberta doesn't trust Ottawa, especially this government.
First words out of the government:

Joly won't rule out cutting off energy exports

And Liberal government history PROVES what that means -Alberta oil. Without a doubt, this government would put tariffs on AB first, before Hydro from ON/PQ.

Alberta and Ottawa frequently clash over energy policy and this is just the latest spat. Older readers will remember when then-Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau asked the Western provinces to agree to a voluntary freeze on oil prices amid the 1973 Arab oil embargo. With the embargo driving international oil prices to record highs, and nine days after asking for the price freeze, Trudeau’s government imposed a 40-cent tax on every barrel of oil exported to the United States. Revenues were used to subsidize oil imports for Eastern Canadian refiners. Then-Alberta Premier Lougheed called the decision “the most discriminatory action taken by a federal government against a particular province in the entire history of Confederation.”

The same Liberal government in 1980 introduced the National Energy Program, or NEP. The NEP aimed to reduce the role of foreign companies in the Canadian oil patch, including increasing Canadian ownership of the industry, sharing revenue between the federal and provincial governments, and developing non-conventional sources.
 
30-35% of Alberta's exports in a given year are not oil. Fully half of all Albertan agricultural output goes to the states. 90% of the beef. The people and economy of Alberta stand to take it on the chin just like the rest of the country, even if oil was exempted from the tariff and we didn't impose an export tax. Alberta, just like the rest of Canada, is best served by collectively playing to win and stave off of tariffs all together.

But no politician ever lets a good tragedy go to waste, so the farmers and manufacturers can get bent while Smith stirs up division to suit her
agenda.

Yes Albertan oil is a big card in the fight
Yes Alberta is right to work to make sure that card is used in such a way that reflects their contribution
Yes Alberta is right to make sure that the whole country is doing their part and the load is shared
Yes Alberta is right to be suspicious of Ottawa

But none of that equals trying to take the card of the table and precipitate a unity crisis rather than quell it.
 
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x.com
@DanKnightMMA


Let’s take a moment to appreciate Justin Trudeau’s brilliant strategy for handling Trump’s latest stunt: tariffs. Trump, in true Trump fashion, threatens to slap a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, because apparently, Canada is responsible for all of America’s problems—from border security to fentanyl. And Trudeau’s response? A $150 billion countermeasure plan that includes the possibility of crippling Alberta’s energy sector. Genius! Except one small problem: Alberta said, ‘No thanks.’

Why wasn’t Alberta there? Because Premier Danielle Smith isn’t an idiot. Trudeau’s plan includes export levies on Canadian oil, a move that would essentially tell Alberta to torch its own economy to help Trudeau look tough on Trump. Alberta exports $13.3 billion of energy to the U.S. every month, making it the lifeblood of this country’s economy. But sure, let’s just gamble that away because Trudeau needs a distraction from his sinking legacy.

But Alberta’s refusal isn’t just about this plan. It’s about years—years—of Ottawa treating Alberta like the black sheep of Confederation. Remember the Northern Gateway Pipeline? Trudeau killed it. Energy East? Dead, too. Those projects could’ve given Alberta access to global markets. Instead, Trudeau left the province landlocked, dependent on the U.S., and completely vulnerable to economic extortion like this. And now, after all that sabotage, he expects Alberta to ‘unite’ behind his plan? Please.

And don’t even get me started on Bill C-69. They call it the ‘Impact Assessment Act,’ but Albertans know it as the ‘No More Pipelines Bill.’ This masterpiece of legislation basically made it impossible to build anything that moves oil. And just to twist the knife, Trudeau slapped on a carbon tax—because nothing says ‘we care about your economy’ like making it more expensive to run it.

And then there’s Quebec. Oh, Quebec. The province that’s spent years wagging its finger at Alberta, calling its oil sands ‘dirty energy’ and blocking pipeline projects that could’ve helped the whole country. Meanwhile, Quebec gleefully cashes billions in equalization payments, heavily subsidized by Alberta’s oil wealth. That’s right—the same people who call Alberta the bad guy are more than happy to take their money. And now Trudeau wants Alberta to step up and take one for the team? Give me a break.

Danielle Smith saw this nonsense for what it is: exploitation. She flatly refused to sign onto any plan that includes export levies or energy restrictions. And you know what? Good for her. She said, ‘Federal officials are floating the idea of cutting off energy supply to the U.S. and imposing tariffs on Alberta energy. Until these threats cease, Alberta cannot support the federal government’s plan.’ Translation: Alberta is done being Ottawa’s doormat.

Let’s not forget why Alberta is even in this mess. For nine years, Trudeau’s government has treated Alberta like its personal piggy bank, siphoning billions through equalization payments while doing absolutely nothing—zero—to support its economy. When oil prices collapsed and families were struggling, what did Alberta get? Crickets. Trudeau was too busy virtue-signaling to his globalist pals to care. And now, with Trump threatening a 25% tariff that could cripple Alberta’s economy, Trudeau has the audacity to turn around and ask Alberta to make the ultimate sacrifice. You can’t make this stuff up.

And then Danielle Smith does what any rational leader would do—she heads to Mar-a-Lago to defend her province’s interests. And what does Trudeau’s cabinet do? They lose their minds, clutch their pearls, and call her ‘unpatriotic.’ Unpatriotic? Are you kidding me? This is coming from the same government that has spent nearly a decade treating Alberta like the annoying little sibling of Confederation—good enough to bankroll Quebec’s luxurious equalization payments, but not important enough to actually listen to. And now, after years of kicking Alberta to the curb, they expect Smith to roll over, play nice, and ‘work together’? Please.

Doug Ford says, ‘United we stand, divided we fall.’ Great soundbite, Doug. But unity doesn’t mean asking one province to carry the load while others reap the rewards. Quebec Premier François Legault says, ‘Nothing’s off the table.’ Of course not—Quebec isn’t paying the price. This isn’t unity; it’s a shakedown.

Here’s the reality: Alberta isn’t at the table because Ottawa hasn’t earned the right to ask them to be. You don’t treat a province like an ATM for nearly a decade and then expect them to roll over when you need a favor. Danielle Smith stood up and said, ‘Enough.’ And frankly, good for her.

So here’s the real question: how long does Ottawa think it can keep exploiting Alberta before the province decides it’s had enough? Because let me tell you, when Alberta’s done, it’s not just the energy sector that’s going to feel it—it’s the entire country.

Add this to the comment that we are too cheap re pipelines. Who do you think stopped these projects and the reasons why?

Mackenzie Gas Project 1999 NWT to AB, 1200km - Dead 2017
Northern Gateway 2006AB to BC, 1177km - Dead 2016
Keystone XL 2008 AB to USA, 1897km - Dead 2021
Energy East 2013AB to NB, 4600km - Dead 2017
 
I happen to think, given the highly integrated nature of the pipeline and refining network in North America, that cutting off oil supplies to the US would have the effect of many Canadian markets also running out of refined product, because we import from US refineries.
Cherry Point, WA, for example.
We are potentially shooting ourselves.

Let the Americans scream bloody murder when the price of gas goes up dramatically next week. We had nothing to do with it. The refineries have to buy WCS in the near term, because they are tuned for it. There is no other reasonable source, other than maybe Venezuela.
Yes. Keep calm, ignore the ranting from the politicians and activists who always seem to be ready to pick or escalate fights with someone else's money and general welfare, and give whatever Trump does some time to affect Americans before jumping to the most egregious retaliatory options.
 
x.com
@DanKnightMMA


Let’s take a moment to appreciate Justin Trudeau’s brilliant strategy for handling Trump’s latest stunt: tariffs. Trump, in true Trump fashion, threatens to slap a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, because apparently, Canada is responsible for all of America’s problems—from border security to fentanyl. And Trudeau’s response? A $150 billion countermeasure plan that includes the possibility of crippling Alberta’s energy sector. Genius! Except one small problem: Alberta said, ‘No thanks.’

Why wasn’t Alberta there? Because Premier Danielle Smith isn’t an idiot. Trudeau’s plan includes export levies on Canadian oil, a move that would essentially tell Alberta to torch its own economy to help Trudeau look tough on Trump. Alberta exports $13.3 billion of energy to the U.S. every month, making it the lifeblood of this country’s economy. But sure, let’s just gamble that away because Trudeau needs a distraction from his sinking legacy.

But Alberta’s refusal isn’t just about this plan. It’s about years—years—of Ottawa treating Alberta like the black sheep of Confederation. Remember the Northern Gateway Pipeline? Trudeau killed it. Energy East? Dead, too. Those projects could’ve given Alberta access to global markets. Instead, Trudeau left the province landlocked, dependent on the U.S., and completely vulnerable to economic extortion like this. And now, after all that sabotage, he expects Alberta to ‘unite’ behind his plan? Please.

And don’t even get me started on Bill C-69. They call it the ‘Impact Assessment Act,’ but Albertans know it as the ‘No More Pipelines Bill.’ This masterpiece of legislation basically made it impossible to build anything that moves oil. And just to twist the knife, Trudeau slapped on a carbon tax—because nothing says ‘we care about your economy’ like making it more expensive to run it.

And then there’s Quebec. Oh, Quebec. The province that’s spent years wagging its finger at Alberta, calling its oil sands ‘dirty energy’ and blocking pipeline projects that could’ve helped the whole country. Meanwhile, Quebec gleefully cashes billions in equalization payments, heavily subsidized by Alberta’s oil wealth. That’s right—the same people who call Alberta the bad guy are more than happy to take their money. And now Trudeau wants Alberta to step up and take one for the team? Give me a break.

Danielle Smith saw this nonsense for what it is: exploitation. She flatly refused to sign onto any plan that includes export levies or energy restrictions. And you know what? Good for her. She said, ‘Federal officials are floating the idea of cutting off energy supply to the U.S. and imposing tariffs on Alberta energy. Until these threats cease, Alberta cannot support the federal government’s plan.’ Translation: Alberta is done being Ottawa’s doormat.

Let’s not forget why Alberta is even in this mess. For nine years, Trudeau’s government has treated Alberta like its personal piggy bank, siphoning billions through equalization payments while doing absolutely nothing—zero—to support its economy. When oil prices collapsed and families were struggling, what did Alberta get? Crickets. Trudeau was too busy virtue-signaling to his globalist pals to care. And now, with Trump threatening a 25% tariff that could cripple Alberta’s economy, Trudeau has the audacity to turn around and ask Alberta to make the ultimate sacrifice. You can’t make this stuff up.

And then Danielle Smith does what any rational leader would do—she heads to Mar-a-Lago to defend her province’s interests. And what does Trudeau’s cabinet do? They lose their minds, clutch their pearls, and call her ‘unpatriotic.’ Unpatriotic? Are you kidding me? This is coming from the same government that has spent nearly a decade treating Alberta like the annoying little sibling of Confederation—good enough to bankroll Quebec’s luxurious equalization payments, but not important enough to actually listen to. And now, after years of kicking Alberta to the curb, they expect Smith to roll over, play nice, and ‘work together’? Please.

Doug Ford says, ‘United we stand, divided we fall.’ Great soundbite, Doug. But unity doesn’t mean asking one province to carry the load while others reap the rewards. Quebec Premier François Legault says, ‘Nothing’s off the table.’ Of course not—Quebec isn’t paying the price. This isn’t unity; it’s a shakedown.

Here’s the reality: Alberta isn’t at the table because Ottawa hasn’t earned the right to ask them to be. You don’t treat a province like an ATM for nearly a decade and then expect them to roll over when you need a favor. Danielle Smith stood up and said, ‘Enough.’ And frankly, good for her.

So here’s the real question: how long does Ottawa think it can keep exploiting Alberta before the province decides it’s had enough? Because let me tell you, when Alberta’s done, it’s not just the energy sector that’s going to feel it—it’s the entire country.

Add this to the comment that we are too cheap re pipelines. Who do you think stopped these projects and the reasons why?

Mackenzie Gas Project 1999 NWT to AB, 1200km - Dead 2017
Northern Gateway 2006AB to BC, 1177km - Dead 2016
Keystone XL 2008 AB to USA, 1897km - Dead 2021
Energy East 2013AB to NB, 4600km - Dead 2017

Excellent post.

But it's confirmation bias for myself.
 
First of all this incompetent Liberal government should not be negotiating with Trump. Let alone, Parliament is prorogued, not functioning due to the Green Slush fund scandal, and wasting time electing a new Capt of the Titanic.
Canada's debt is now more the all the debt of all previous governments in Canada's history that included two world wars.

In one year Trudeau increased the deficit from a WAG of $40.1 Billion to $62 Billion.

We pay more interest payments on the debt than we do on health services.

And this is the government is negotiating with Trump? Joly?


The headline says it all. Aberta doesn't trust Ottawa, especially this government.
First words out of the government:

And Liberal government history PROVES what that means -Alberta oil. Without a doubt, this government would put tariffs on AB first, before Hydro from ON/PQ.
Parliament is not the government. You’re getting legislative and executive branches mixed up.

Trump takes his seat in a few days. Canada only has one government at a time and the government of the day is the only one that can negotiate. Until an election concludes and a new party takes power and forms a new government, what we’ve got is what we’ve got. We aren’t obligated to like it, but it’s an objective reality.
 
"Business Leaders" they got Arlene Dickinson for name brand recognition... Looks like an LPC high five committee...

Tom Cruise Goose GIF by Top Gun
 
And Liberal government history PROVES what that means -Alberta oil. Without a doubt, this government would put tariffs on AB first, before Hydro from ON/PQ.
Knock-on effects from increased oil/gas prices are much easier to deal with politically than electricity's much more immediate "pensioner freezing to death because the bill went up" potential outcomes.
 
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