Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[YZT580]

This is actually the scope of ambition being looked at. It's a genuine, "How would we fight for years?" Question.

And as we go through this there's a realization government wide (not just CAF) of how daunting the task is.

It's all the way from basics (getting the CAL DAL right) to how would we manage strategic comms to mobilize society in the age of AI fakes, to how do we manage the mismatch between weeks to mobilize PRes to months to mobilize Strat/Mob Res to years to mobilize industry. All of this kinda stuff is actually being staff checked with outputs on everything from legislative changes proposed to procurement to changing force design to changing mandates of agencies. CCG moving to DND, for example, is just the first step in looking at underwater infrastructure protection. There's discussions, for example, on what legislative changes might be needed to enable more reserve service as part of creating that mobilization reserve and growing PRes substantially.

But it's like eating an elephant. This is easily a decade long project.

perhaps they need to reconsider their gun laws if they really want to establish an effective militia. The Swiss and the Israelis are two that I know of that keep military weapons in the front closet and carry them on the bus (Israel). Kinda dumb to confiscate an effective weapon on one hand and then ask the owner to join with defending his country on the other.

 

[FJAG]

There's discussions, for example, on what legislative changes might be needed to enable more reserve service as part of creating that mobilization reserve and growing PRes substantially.

But it's like eating an elephant. This is easily a decade long project.

I'm glad to hear that it may finally be happening. The quote I made above about the "great host" was made in 2005 by the panel doing a ten year review of the progress on the reserve restructure that was put forward in 1995. Ten years of nothing followed by 20 years of nothing. You'll need to excuse me if I'm not excited yet. I started in this game in '65 and have been excited and then disappointed so many times that I've lost count and my cynicism has grown exponentially.

I tend to agree it will take DND a decade to sort things through. And that's the problem. Do you know how you speed up eating an elephant? Rather than one bite at a time, you have thousands of people all eating at the same time. Gunners have several buzz words/phrases - one is "concurrent activity." But that needs a firm vision and a great plan with a massive Gantt chart with a clearly defined critical path and a robust public information program to make sure the nation knows that you are moving the yardsticks. I honestly don't think we have a decade of committee meetings.

Honestly, those mandate question examples you gave above should have all been asked and answered and put into the "plan" Belzile said the forces didn't have in 2005 At the very latest they should have started to plan seriously in 2014 and again exactly four years ago on February 24, 2022 when the Russians crossed the start line.

Incidentally, the legislative changes needed to make an effective reserve force are easy and few. The regulatory, directive and policy changes, however, are significant. More important, the RegF will to change the reserves into an effective "reserve" force rather than an "augmenting RegF office overload" is critical. That will has been noticeably absent for over a half a century (and lets stop blaming honourary colonels for that)

 

[ytz]

I'm glad to hear that it may finally be happening. The quote I made above about the "great host" was made in 2005 by the panel doing a ten year review of the progress on the reserve restructure that was put forward in 1995. Ten years of nothing followed by 20 years of nothing. You'll need to excuse me if I'm not excited yet. I started in this game in '65 and have been excited and then disappointed so many times that I've lost count and my cynicism has grown exponentially.

Fully understand. And honestly, I'm a little skeptical at the numbers I hear thrown around. I can't imagine what pay and benefits have to be to hit the numbers being talked about. But I do think it's a worthy goal and if we'll even get to 50% that will be an exponential improvement in what we have today.

I tend to agree it will take DND a decade to sort things through. And that's the problem. Do you know how you speed up eating an elephant? Rather than one bite at a time, you have thousands of people all eating at the same time. Gunners have several buzz words/phrases - one is "concurrent activity." But that needs a firm vision and a great plan with a massive Gantt chart with a clearly defined critical path and a robust public information program to make sure the nation knows that you are moving the yardsticks. I honestly don't think we have a decade of committee meetings.

I personally don't think we can do it all. I think at some point, the government will have to prioritize what it wants done.

Incidentally, the legislative changes needed to make an effective reserve force are easy and few. The regulatory, directive and policy changes, however, are significant. More important, the RegF will to change the reserves into an effective "reserve" force rather than an "augmenting RegF office overload" is critical. That will has been noticeably absent for over a half a century (and lets stop blaming honourary colonels for that)

The one thing that the reserves have going for them this time is jobs. Construction, maintenance and support contracts all over the country. And the more the Reserves grow the more generous those contracts. And of course, those reservists are basically local stimulus.

 

[ytz]

My one question at work always is, "when are we getting a new defence policy?"

ONSAF was written before Carney and this ambition. And now we're basically operating off script. Reading ONSAF it seems quaint now. 1.76% in 29/30.

If we're really going to 5% including resiliency, we're looking at a whole different world with very different options. Even a world where we hit 3% is different. This is a world where we could envision carriers or amphibs, where we build substantial defence infrastructure in the Arctic. Maybe a third navy MOB. Or even some real offensive space capabilities (my favourite). So I really want to know what the government wants to do.

A world where we hit 5% and aren't paying for a nuke deterrent is a world where we basically have like 70% of conventional UK capabilities given that maintenance of their deterrent costs them 1% of GDP per year.

I'd really like some small wins from Uncle Mark. Like can we just grow existing orders? Exercise the options for the two P-8s. And maybe buy a few more. Make the truck order for the CA bigger. Order a third or even a fourth AOR for the RCN. New tools. New vehicles to every maintenance shop. Make CAF IT 2026 relevant. Etc. All things we can do while sorting out the big stuff.