Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Altair]

The other big change in 1996 was EI reform. EI reform affected all of Canada, not just QC. Changes in work force composition were observed in QC and elsewhere. The prudent explanation is that EI reform was the larger driver.

Yet when you narrow it down to female workplace participation, with Quebec and Ontario in lockstep for decades, and the only diverging factor being childcare being universal in Quebec from 1996 onwards, it stands to reason the Quebec and Ontario would have remained in lockstep after 1996 with EI reform, as opposed to women in Quebec having more children and having higher workplace participation than Ontario in the decades afterwards.

TLDR: it makes no sense that EI reform would effect Quebec women with young children more than Ontario women with young children.

 

[Good2Golf]

>The private sector doesn't care

^THIS.

Statistically, one of the truest statements on this forum.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There's not much point comparing QC to some of the other provinces. QC taxpayers, in aggregate, are willing to bear QC income tax rates. 2021:

$45,105 or less	15%
More than $45,105 but not more than $90,200	20%
More than $90,200 but not more than $109,755	24%
More than $109,755	25.75%

AB:

AB Tax Bracket 2021	Tax Rate 2021	AB Tax Bracket 2020	Tax Rate 2020
Up to $131,220	10%	Up to $131,220	10%
$131,221 to $157,464	12%	$131,221 to $157,464	12%
$157,465 to $209,952	13%	$157,465 to $209,952	13%
$209,953 to $314,928	14%	$209,953 to $314,928	14%
$314,929 and over	15%	$314,929 and over	15%

BC, 2021:

$0 to $42,184	5.06%
$42,184.01 to $84,369	7.70%
$84,369.01 to $96,866	10.50%
$96,866.01 to $117,623	12.29%
$117,623.01 to $159,483	14.70%
$159,483.01 to $222,420	16.80%
Over $222,420	20.5%

ON 2021:

• 5.05% on the first $45,142 of taxable income, plus…
• 9.15% on the next $45,142 up to $90,287, plus…
• 11.16% on the next $90,287 up to $150,000, plus…
• 12.16% on the next $150,000 up to $220,000, plus…
• 13.16 % on the amount over $220,000

I can see part of the reason people living in QC might be feeling a bit pinched.

 

[daftandbarmy]

If someone cannot afford childcare and are thus unable to work, then that seems pretty forced to me.

Less choice.

Affordable childcare would allow people, especially women, to re-enter the workforce earlier, and society would reap all the benefits associated with that.

I do like how the BQ like childcare, seeing as the system originated in Quebec, the NDP have been advocating for it for decades, since the 90s I believe, and the LPC are finally getting around to it, and there is one party in parliament that is opposed to it.

Now numbers in parliament don't make something right or wrong, but I do find it interesting that there is one party that is still not in keeping up with the other parties.

Same as with legal weed, same as with universal healthcare (I looked it up, guess who opposed it way back when?) same as with CCB, same as with gay marriage, same as with conversion therapy, etc.

I'll end this with saying that if the opinions presented here are largely shared within the CPC, as it seems like many here are CPC supporters, it doesn't shock me at all that the CPC didn't win a SINGLE seat in Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, and are losing ground in Edmonton and Calgary.

There are some downsides that people seem to be ignoring in the rush to fund child care.

e.g., want more criminals? Provide subsidized childcare... apparently:

Universal Child Care: A Bad Deal For Kids?​

Years of emotional and behavioral assessments collected on children who had attended child care after the launch of Quebec’s universal child care program indicated cause for concern. On average, 2- to 4-year-old children who had been in child care showed significant increases in anxiety, aggression, and hyperactivity, and experienced more hostile, inconsistent parenting and lower-quality parent-child relationships compared to children who had not attended. As children grew older, these negative outcomes did not dissipate: among 5- to 9-year-olds, the social-emotional problems not only persisted, but in some cases increased, particularly for boys with the most elevated behavioral problems.

Follow-up studies conducted 20 years after the program’s inception further revealed that negative social-emotional outcomes associated with attending child care persisted through adolescence and into young adulthood. Among young people from ages 12 to 20, self-reported health and life satisfaction decreased significantly. The scale-up of universal child care in Quebec was also associated with a subsequent “sharp and contemporaneous increase in criminal behavior” across Quebec, as the rate of crime conviction jumped 22 percent. As the following figure indicates, though crime rates in Quebec are lower than the rest of Canada, there was a significant increase in crime accusation and conviction rates for cohorts exposed to the child care program.

Universal Child Care: A Bad Deal For Kids?

Emphasizing a “caregiving crisis” caused by inadequate access to affordable care for children under age five, the Biden campaign highlighted a universal child care plan that aims to “cultivate the potential of young children” through high-quality early learning, while enabling their mothers to...

ifstudies.org

 

[Brad Sallows]

and the only diverging factor being childcare being universal in Quebec from 1996 onwards, it stands to reason the Quebec and Ontario would have remained in lockstep after 1996 with EI reform

That's an invalid assumption. There are too many dissimilarities to assume the EI reforms had to affect the two provinces identically.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If someone cannot afford childcare and are thus unable to work, then that seems pretty forced to me.

Everything in life is "forced", then. Literally no-one can do every thing to which he might aspire.

 

[Altair]

That's an invalid assumption. There are too many dissimilarities to assume the EI reforms had to affect the two provinces identically.

It is not. A very small divergence, maybe. We are seeing huge divergences between Quebec and Ontario after decades of being largely identical before universal childcare came to be in Quebec.

 

[Altair]

Everything in life is "forced", then. Literally no-one can do every thing to which he might aspire.

Well, toss childcare in the category of things that Canadians now have more access to at affordable prices.

Put it alongside things like public healthcare, public education, public transit, public police forces, etc.

 

[Good2Golf]

As the following figure indicates, though crime rates in Quebec are lower than the rest of Canada, there was a significant increase in crime accusation and conviction rates for cohorts exposed to the child care program.

I think you accidentally misspelled ‘subjected’…

 

[mariomike]

Its 2021 by the way, not 1950.

Out there it is.

"Out there it's the 1990's, but in this house it's 1954."

 

[Brad Sallows]

QC and ON are not "largely identical". Their dominant cultures are different, their histories are different, their economies are different, their government finances are different. Even a small perturbation in non-linear dynamic systems can cause wildly diverging outcomes. There is simply no way of easily identifying one cause and one effect and saying "this caused that".

 

[Altair]

QC and ON are not "largely identical". Their dominant cultures are different, their histories are different, their economies are different, their government finances are different. Even a small perturbation in non-linear dynamic systems can cause wildly diverging outcomes. There is simply no way of easily identifying one cause and one effect and saying "this caused that".

lol....

Trying to square this circle is interesting to watch.

QC and ON are not largely identical, their dominant cultures are different, their histories are different, their economies are different, their government finances are different, yet before QC put in universal childcare their female workplace participation and fertility rates were largely identical...

And the childcare program, designed to increase fertility and female workplace participation, isn't the reason for largely increased female fertility and workplace participation in QC, no, it was because of EI...

Hahaha, I'm done. We have talked about this before the election, during the election, and now after the election, and 219 seats in parliament are held by parties which support universal childcare. I think the people of Canada have spoken. In the next few years the system will be cemented, funds flowing and provincial system in place, so I think the CPC will move on like they did with universal health care, gay marriage, the CCB, and legal weed.

Or not, and they can simply surrender the top 72 urban ridings to ABC voters and continue to be the party of rural discontent. Their choice.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Hahaha, I'm done.

Good. You go on bragging about QC, which seems to have all the things BC has, plus a generously financed child care program and an extra tithe - literally - of provincial income taxes. I'd be trying to get the fuck out of there.

 

[Altair]

Good. You go on bragging about QC, which seems to have all the things BC has, plus a generously financed child care program and an extra tithe - literally - of provincial income taxes. I'd be trying to get the fuck out of there.

You do you mon ami.

Meanwhile I'll be happy for all the parents using the universal healthcare system in the next few years as the program gets rolling. I never got it, but I'm going to be happy for those that will.

I'm guessing we shall be butting heads next election, whenever that is, about universal pharma care. I look forward to that.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

You do you mon ami.

Meanwhile I'll be happy for all the parents using the universal healthcare system in the next few years as the program gets rolling. I never got it, but I'm going to be happy for those that will.

I'm guessing we shall be butting heads next election, whenever that is, about universal pharma care. I look forward to that.

But you went and hid this time when your man was behind,....you only came out when it was gloat time.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I'm guessing we shall be butting heads next election, whenever that is, about universal pharma care. I look forward to that.

Sure. But given my age, I benefit either way.

 

[Altair]

But you went and hid this time when your man was behind,....you only came out when it was gloat time.

I left after @Jarnhamar insinuated that Trudeau was pleased at the protestors dogging his campaign, like that level of political discourse was acceptable in Canada.

I said I would be back after the election. I think Trudeau was "behind" before that happened. I didn't return even after it became clear he was rebounding.

Why? Because I was very likely to say something that would get me banned. I would rather not get banned (Again) and I didn't want to drag the discourse here down any more than it already was.

As for gloating, you have not seen me gloating. If I was gloating you would know it.

 

[Altair]

Sure. But given my age, I benefit either way.

Ah, so social programs are okay when YOU benefit.

Seen.

 

[ballz]

Ah yes, lets us all go back to the 1950s shall we?

You the people that fought and won two World Wars and didn't sit around feeling sorry for themselves afterwards? Yes, let's do that.

you have seen Alberta sending patients outside the province and the military coming in to help? Because they wanted to be left the eff alone and take personal responsibility during a pandemic, Welcome to confederation indeed. The bad stuff and the good stuff.

Yep. Alberta's population overwhelmingly supported stronger measures and the government didn't act. You know what they're going to do? Vote out a gov't that had one of the strongest majorities ever. Alberta's not going to sit around and feel sorry for themselves, they're not going to blame the Federal government.

That's without addressing the fact that 1. Alberta will be paying for those patients care from other provinces 2. Alberta has been feeding money into Confederation since it began, and hasn't received an equalization payment in over 50 years 3. Alberta was sending ventilators without being asked to other provinces out of goodwill when they were in trouble 4. It's still nowhere near the problems Ontario and Quebec faced in the first wave..... yet we're the bad guys and they're just going to get more support from the Feds for it.

And yet the rest of the country is just sitting there salivating at every misfortune Alberta has, asking for more and more when they won't even try to help themselves, it's disgusting.

Welcome to confederation, enjoy your stay.

Quebec will do what Quebec will do.

lol, put in a sales tax and balance the books in alberta, or don't and stop complaining about how the province is suffering from the oil crash.

If Alberta did away with income tax and then complained to the rest of the provinces that it couldn't balance the books, do you think that would be looked on favorably? Probably not.

Why don't you worry about working within your own means instead of chastising Alberta who's still got the best finances in the country? Don't bite the hand that feeds you buds, we'll take no tips from the guy that can't even sort out his own personal finances.

I don't see how a sales tax put in place in Alberta would benefit anyone outside of Alberta. So sales taxes get sent elsewhere? I'm curious. I know Alberta doesn't have a lot of experience with the concept but I don't think that's how sales taxes work.

Sales tax revenues goes to Alberta coffers, Alberta coffers to go to Federal coffers, Federal coffers go to Quebec. Like I said, while you want to ignore the sources of revenue, that's your own stupidity / desire to be a spoiled brat.

Okay, well, if you let me know what other metric I should use I'll use that. But poo pooing GDP and not presenting an alternative isn't very productive now is it?

I did.

aerospace, electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, printed goods, software engineering, telecommunications, textile and apparel manufacturing, tourism and transportation, civil, mechanical and process engineering, finance, higher education, and research and development.

Well, until it can be proven otherwise.

Okay, let's take your head out of the sand for a second:

"Calgary posted the highest net exports, while Toronto had the highest net imports."

The Daily — Study: Trade in goods by exporter and importer characteristics, by census metropolitan area

In 2018, the five major census metropolitan areas in terms of trade—Toronto, Calgary, Montréal, Vancouver and Windsor—contributed to nearly 60% of Canada's total international merchandise trade. Calgary posted the highest net exports, while Toronto had the highest net imports.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

So in other words, in 2018 Calgary was increasing the wealth in the country, and Toronto was decreasing it.

Now stick your head back in the sand.

Right, so what do we do in the meantime? hmmm.

We leave it the fuck alone, and stop giving people reasons to stay in unsustainable situations, and let them make the choice to be poor in their current situation or move to places that actually contribute.

You talk about choices. In what scenario is having a person stuck at home raising a child when they want to be in the workforce considered more choices than giving someone the option to have access to affordable childcare freeing them up to work if they choose or stay home if they so desire?

The scenario where they were a willing participant is making children, the way most children are made.

You asked about what me and my partner would do... like I said, that's our business, but I'll tell you what we won't do. We won't do it flippantly and put ourselves in a situation that we can't afford the things we want most. That may include taking a hit on income, it may include moving to a different part of the country, it might include having kids later in life, it might include many things, it might even include not having everything we want but knowing we're not entitled to everything, we won't make a plan that relies on the government to do it all for us.

Present your alternative.

There is no "single" measure of an economy. It has to be viewed as a whole.... although net exports is probably the best place to start, as I presented and you ignored.

Unless you want the federal government to start dictating provincial budgets, leave provincial debt out of the equation. Because even if the federal government gets it house in order and provinces do not, the cumulative debt levels would still rise and you would still complain.

As has been shown, unsustainable municipal debt becomes the province's problem (which is fine, since provinces own the municipalities), unsustainable provincial debt becomes a federal problem.... no, I don't want the feds to dictate provincial budgets, I want the feds to practice "peace, order, and good governance" by making provinces sleep in the bed they make so that it doesn't become a national problem.

Except we have been printing money like mad and the currency is stable. Because everyone is printing money like mad, which means it doesn't effect the Canadian currency in any particular way. It would have been interesting if Canada didn't print money, because then you might get the case where the currency shot up in value making exports more expensive and suffering a shock to the system in that way.

Really? Last I read we were experiencing the highest inflation we've ever experienced? How did that work out for you and your savings for a house? What could have bought you a house, no longer can... the literal definition of inflation.

It's astounding that you are a victim of this poor strategy and can't see it.

 

[Altair]

You the people that fought and won two World Wars and didn't sit around feeling sorry for themselves afterwards? Yes, let's do that.

Yup, and women back to the kitchen, pushing out babies, forget work as that is not the role of the woman, gays persecuted, back to the 1950s we go!

Why don't you worry about working within your own means instead of chastising Alberta who's still got the best finances in the country? Don't bite the hand that feeds you buds, we'll take no tips from the guy that can't even sort out his own personal finances.

Alberta was running deficits in the years before the pandemic and Quebec was posting surpluses...So you're right, I may listen to those with the best finances, but I don't think that's who you think it is.

Sales tax revenues goes to Alberta coffers, Alberta coffers to go to Federal coffers, Federal coffers go to Quebec. Like I said, while you want to ignore the sources of revenue, that's your own stupidity / desire to be a spoiled brat.

So not only do you not understand how sales tax works, you do not understand how equalization works.

I would explain it to you but I don't think you care to learn, so I wont waste my time all knowing ballz.

I did.

Not really.

Okay, let's take your head out of the sand for a second:

"Calgary posted the highest net exports, while Toronto had the highest net imports."

The Daily — Study: Trade in goods by exporter and importer characteristics, by census metropolitan area

In 2018, the five major census metropolitan areas in terms of trade—Toronto, Calgary, Montréal, Vancouver and Windsor—contributed to nearly 60% of Canada's total international merchandise trade. Calgary posted the highest net exports, while Toronto had the highest net imports.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

So in other words, in 2018 Calgary was increasing the wealth in the country, and Toronto was decreasing it.

Now stick your head back in the sand.

Of course, Toronto is importing more than the 54 percent it contributes to the Ontario economy. Of course.

Back in reality.

Measuring the economy, region by region

On January 27, 2017, Statistics Canada released economic data on Canadian cities. Canadians now have access to data on gross domestic product (GDP) for 33 census metropolitan areas (CMAs), as well as 9 non-CMA regions within the country. Going forward,......

www.statcan.gc.ca

How important are cities to the country's economic health? According to the recent GDP release, Canada's 33 CMAs generated more than 70% of Canada's national GDP in 2013. That's a big piece of the economic pie. An even closer look reveals that nearly one-fifth of the country's entire economic output comes from Toronto alone. Clearly, Canada's cities play an important role in the country's economy and warrant specific attention.

You can keep pushing the fallacy that cities are not the economic drivers of the Canadian economy but I don't think the facts agree with you.

We leave it the fuck alone, and stop giving people reasons to stay in unsustainable situations, and let them make the choice to be poor in their current situation or move to places that actually contribute.

You can choose that.

The people of Canada put in 219 MPs who are of a differing opinion. And considering that even the CPC had a plan to address the housing issue (it was just a bad one) which would have subsidized it to a lesser extent, then if you look at it that way, Canadians sent 338 MPs of a differing opinion.

Democracy is a wonderful thing.

The scenario where they were a willing participant is making children, the way most children are made.

You asked about what me and my partner would do... like I said, that's our business, but I'll tell you what we won't do. We won't do it flippantly and put ourselves in a situation that we can't afford the things we want most. That may include taking a hit on income, it may include moving to a different part of the country, it might include having kids later in life, it might include many things, it might even include not having everything we want but knowing we're not entitled to everything, we won't make a plan that relies on the government to do it all for us.

Funny that these are some of the same arguments made in the USA when people say that they shouldn't pay for universal healthcare.

Don't put yourself in a situation where you cannot afford it. Ha.

Again, as I said to Brad, I'll enjoy watching the childcare programs become cemented in Canadian society. You may pout.

There is no "single" measure of an economy. It has to be viewed as a whole.... although net exports is probably the best place to start, as I presented and you ignored.

How to calculate the export value of tourism and the financial sector I wonder...

As has been shown, unsustainable municipal debt becomes the province's problem (which is fine, since provinces own the municipalities), unsustainable provincial debt becomes a federal problem.... no, I don't want the feds to dictate provincial budgets, I want the feds to practice "peace, order, and good governance" by making provinces sleep in the bed they make so that it doesn't become a national problem.

Well, there have been no bailouts of the provinces to date so I guess you're a happy individual. Until such a time comes, provincial debt=/= federal debt.

Really? Last I read we were experiencing the highest inflation we've ever experienced? How did that work out for you and your savings for a house? What could have bought you a house, no longer can... the literal definition of inflation.

Lol, no. No where near record amounts of inflation. 21.60 percent in June of 1920 was the record all knowing Ballz.

Also, housing prices are not calculated in inflation rates, so that also doesn't compute Mr you know better than me.

Why inflation numbers fail to capture Canada’s red-hot housing market

As bidding wars and six-figure price increases become the norm, it’s tough to find much of an impact on the consumer price index

www.theglobeandmail.com

Why don’t rising house prices count towards inflation?

Property values have increased much faster than other costs of living

www.economist.com

It's astounding that you are a victim of this poor strategy and can't see it.

Well, considering that housing and inflation are calculated separately, I doubt this is the case.