Canadian foreign policy & the public view of the Afghanistan mission

[McG]

Canadians want to ensure foreign policy is developed with Canadian values
Joanne Laucius , with files from Norma Greenaway, CanWest News Service; Ottawa Citizen
Published: Friday, August 04, 2006

OTTAWA - Public support for Canada's military involvement in Afghanistan will be affected by a complex interplay of issues, from events in Lebanon to how Canadians feel about Prime Minister Stephen Harper, say pollsters.

Bruce Anderson of Decima Research said the challenges the government is facing are broader than Afghanistan.

Foreign policy has emerged as a more significant set of risks for this government, he said. At first, Canadians liked the idea of participating in the war on terror. Since then, many Canadians have lost faith in the way the United States has proceeded, including the war in Iraq.

"They approach the idea with a foot on the gas and a foot on the brake," said Anderson. There is also increasing pressure to illustrate that there has been progress in the mission in Afghanistan and it has been hard to assess those achievements.

"As casualties mount, people look to the government for greater and greater clarity," said Anderson.

Meanwhile, the war in Lebanon has resulted in a heightened sense of anxiety, and increasing concern that Canada is aligned with the U.S.

"The challenge for the government is not to convince people that it's doing the right thing, but that policy is developed with Canadian values," said Anderson. "Canadians are signalling a questioning of where we're going in this region."

Support for military involvement in Afghanistan will likely decline, but not support for the government, said Conrad Winn, president of the polling firm COMPAS.

"The paradox is that people who live in a democracy hate killing and war," said Winn. "But they'll also say, 'Let's not cut and run.'"

Whether the loss of four more Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan Thursday affects the Conservatives' popularity depends on public perception, he said.

"If the public concludes that the Conservatives are belligerent and love war, they will lose. If they conclude that the Liberals got us into this and didn't provide the protections that good governments provide for their soldiers, then they'll win."

A poll by COMPAS released Thursday concluded that an overwhelming majority of Canadians 82 per cent are concerned about a terrorist attack on Canadians soil.

Meanwhile, the poll also found Harper has a high proportion of "passionate supporters" for his Middle East policy. Sixty per cent said Harper has earned a good performance score, higher than three-quarters of the performance scores earned by Jean Chretien and Paul Martin's Liberal governments, according to the poll of 502 Canadians interviewed between July 27 and Aug. 1. The poll is deemed accurate to within 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Polls are very misleading, he said. In some ways, they are a lagging indicator. "People lose their confidence long before it shows up on a poll."

In the end, support for Canada's mission in Afghanistan will depend on how to government responds.

"People don't turn against a government on single events. It's all in the interpretation," said Winn. "'Do we want to lose soldiers?' is a different question than whether we want to cut and run. Policy has 25 choices.

''Polls are better at voter intentions than policy. A ballot only asks one question."

Ultimately, factors other than Canadian losses in Afghanistan will decide whether the Conservatives win the next election, said Winn. "Voters are like retailers. It's just-in-time voting.''

Military analyst David Rudner said the latest bloodshed ups the pressure on Harper to justify the Afghan mission to Canadians.

"The question is, is war the worst alternative? And the answer is no, the worst alternative here would be a Taliban victory in Afghanistan," said the Carleton University professor.

He said Harper has no time to waste to make his case to Canadians that they are engaged in a new form of warfare, and that this is no time to pick up and run.

Rudner said Thursday's deaths do not mean the NATO forces will be unsuccessful in bringing the Taliban to heel.

"Nobody enjoys the costs of war," he said. "But this is a new form of warfare against an enemy who, if they should be allowed to win in Afghanistan, would be catastrophic firstly for the Afghans, but secondly would put Canadian interests, and the interests of the democracies, in grave danger."

 

[McG]

Sadly, it seems some politicians & media want to use this mission to score points for or analyses the next election.

Bombs rock Canadian convoy as questions raised over mission
Last Updated Fri, 04 Aug 2006 10:33:32 EDT
CBC News

...

The deaths prompted Liberal defence critic Ujjal Dosanjh to accuse Prime Minister Stephen Harper of distorting and changing the scope of the mission in Afghanistan.

"I think Canadians believed that the focus of this mission is different than what it appears to be today — today it appears to be solely combat," he said Thursday.

Dosanjh said the mission his party supported was one based on reconstructing a country destroyed by the Taliban. He said the mission's original mandate was development, diplomacy and defence.

"Combat is important but winning the battle in hearts and minds equally important," he said.

Harper insisted it's only through combat missions that Afghanistan will eventually be at peace, and continued to pledge his support for the military campaign.

"What the men and women in harm's way want and need to know at moments like this is that the government and Canadians stand behind their mission," Harper said.

"Through good times and bad, this government will honour their sacrifice. We will stand behind their mission and we are proud of the work that they are doing."

"They are in a leadership role … in the toughest part of that country facing the terrorist threat directly and helping Afghans rebuild their lives and communities."

Harper pledges renewed support for military in wake of Afghan casualties
Canadian Press
Posted on Canada.com
Published: Friday, August 04, 2006

CORNWALL, Ont. (CP) - Prime Minister Stephen Harper offered his condolences to the families of Canadian troops killed and injured in Afghanistan today and said the government stands solidly behind the mission.

Harper said Canadian troops need to know that their country supports them and he pledged to honour their sacrifices.

With the Conservatives slumping in the polls, Harper used his speech at a party caucus retreat to blast the Liberals and boast of his government's accomplishments.

He said the Liberals don't know what they believe in, while Conservatives have clear policies on issues such as the Middle East.

The prime minister has been under fire for coming out firmly in support of Israel in its battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Polls suggest a majority of Canadians don't support his position.

The latest poll suggests the Conservatives are in a dead heat with the Liberals, and the Liberals have pulled ahead in Quebec for the first time since the last election.

I hope someone tells Ujjal Dosanjh to stop crediting the Conservatives for the committing to the current scope of the mission.  It was a Liberal government that made the decision (the right decision by the way) and the Conservatives have only stayed the course.

 

[buzgo]

There was a good bit about this on Ontario Today on CBC Radio 1 at lunch. Sally Armstrong (author of: Veiled Threat: The Hidden Power of the Women of Afghanistan) was on and said exactly what you referred to MCG. That the mission is progressing as it was planned and that it wasn't the Conservatives that planned it this way. There should be a podcast on the CBC site at some point.

I'm somewhat disgusted by Ujjal Dosanjh, he either has NO CLUE what he is talking about or has his fingers crossed behind his back while he spouts these ridiculous lies.

 

[McG]

Ujjal Dosanjh's comments are looked at specifically here: http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/48374.0.html

 

[Stirling N6123]

What makes me laugh more than anything, is that the mission has not chnaged for Militray in Afgh. The liberals sent them over in the first place, and now that we have regrettably lost some of our outstanding troops, the Liberal Money Flushers are crying foul over the Harper governments stance regarding the

Sit down Doshanji and shut yer mouth. You liberals make me wanna vomit!!

 

[Kirkhill]

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/editorialsletters/story.html?id=8b878b1f-b01e-4523-a8d0-2de4634fc9e8
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1154728213590&call_pageid=968256290204&col=968350116795
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060805.EDOSA15/TPStory/Opinion/editorials

:
Some really interesting editorials - The Globe and Mail is the most scathing

Dosanjh has it wrong about the Afghan task
Liberal defence critic Ujjal Dosanjh says Canada's mission in Afghanistan should be refocused. "This has become almost totally a combat mission, and that was not the intention," he said Thursday after four Canadians were killed.

That is an astonishing thing for a leading member of the Liberal Party to say. It was, after all, a former Liberal government -- his government -- that decided to send Canadian troops on their dangerous mission in southern Afghanistan in the first place. ....

.... The Liberals' interim leader Bill Graham seems to understand that. He says that "we knew this was going to be a very tough mission." Why doesn't his defence critic understand it?

Although even the Toronto Star "gets it":

.....In the meantime, Canadians should bear in mind that this battle is not ours alone. There are 40,000 American and NATO troops from three dozen nations in Afghanistan, under a United Nations mandate. More than 400 have died since 2001, including 323 Americans and now 23 Canadians, as well as one of our diplomats.

Those troops are fighting to prevent a return of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and his ilk, who befriended Osama bin Laden before 9/11 and who have turned their fury on 100 schools in recent months, killing children. They blew shoppers to pieces at a bazaar this week, in a scene of indescribable carnage. They bombed mourners as they emerged from a funeral service at a mosque. They murder teachers and aid workers......

We've been hard enough on the press when we thought if warranted it.  Maybe it's appropriate to give credit when it is due.

 

[Scoobie Newbie]

You are correct.  In this case the papers above are using common sense.

 

[paracowboy]

I'll be damned. The Red Star caught on?

 

[Canadian.Trucker]

Well I'll be a monkey's uncle.  I must be dreaming, no wait, I'm not because hell hasn't frozen over and Jessica Alba isn't sitting beside me in a bikini.  Good to see that the papers aren't always right out of it though.  Cudos.