Canadian Public Opinion Polls on Afghanistan

[The Bread Guy]

To be entirely fair, I think there would be serious consequences for polling company telling the phone pollsters what the "right" answer is, or having them not include the results or hang up if they don't get it. 

Are the questions "crafted" in accordance with the needs of the client?  Hell yes - fair game to pile on there.

Sadly, I wish we could move on, but we have to remember:
1)  politicial types look at these numbers (albeit as only one piece of information in a very complicated info environment, but they're not ignored); and
2)  based on limited experience, I think any polling done by the government itself is done by companies similar to the one doing the media's polling, using the same techniques.

 

[paracowboy]

title is inaccurate:
Support for Afghan mission continues to decline...Amongst Canadian Media

 

[Journeyman]

I guess I just I have a more jaded view of media & politics. I suspect that most politicians have their minds already made up, and use polls to support their views - - views which are based overwhelmingly on what will get them re-elected.

Because I also believe that a large percentage of the media leans to the left, their views therefore inform the politicians, not the "masses." In this case, pro-Afghan mission comments get left on the editor's floor. Just look at the coverage of "anti-war protests" versus "wear red days" - - not hard to see which stories the media wanted out there, by their distorted coverage of the protests.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Paracowboy:  How's this for an alternative headline?

"Support Declines Among Approximately 1,000 Canadians Who Didn't Hang Up on Pollsters Calling Around Supper Time at Home; Group Alleged to Represent an Accurate Mix of Canada's 32,623,490 Citizens"

:

 

[rmacqueen]

I notice that the story does not contain a link to the actual poll or the wording of the questions.  So much depends on what the actual questions were.  For example, if Ipso-reid asked "Do you support Canadian troops being used for combat?", you would get a different answer than "Do you think Canadian troops need to be used for combat?"  So much depends on the phraseology of the poll, phraseology the media likes to keep hidden.  Just take a look at the difference in opinion at http://www.timeoutcanada.org/ when the question is straight forward.

Take all polls with a grain of salt

"Support Declines Among Approximately 1,000 Canadians Who Didn't Hang Up on Pollsters Calling Around Supper Time at Home; Group Alleged to Represent an Accurate Mix of Canada's 32,623,490 Citizens"

That is a very valid point since polling companies are having more and more trouble getting people to answer the questions.  It is estimated that only 20% of people called actually answer.  Of those, the majority tend to be stay at home and/or unemployed.  The majority of working people do not have the time or desire to put up with pollsters.

 

[ProPatria Mike]

I was at the  YMCA earlier this morning, did a little canvas of my own in the sauna after the workout. Bout eight guys of varying age and a couple of women. Naturally, they all supported the troops. Doesn't every Canadian, at least when you ask them? But once the I shifted the conversation to the mission... I hate to say it, but those poll numbers were wrong.

And not in a good way.

I have a pool tournament later this afternoon, once again, I will bring up the subject, well, cause frankly, I was disappointed with the results.

How bout you guys doing the same thing and we can compare notes then judge them against the poll?  Nothing complicated, just ask them if they think this is a winnable situation and let the conversation go from there. 

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

To be entirely fair, I think there would be serious consequences for polling company telling the phone pollsters what the "right" answer is, or having them not include the results or hang up if they don't get it. 

Well we have had 3 members of this site get the 'hang-up' when they answered the first question with "Yes, I support...."  Thats just 3 members, who have come forward, from this site alone.

 

[ProPatria Mike]

I find that you have to go with only those polls that are reputable and are concerned about their reputation. The poll cited, BTW, happens to be one of these... Of course, it could be politically motivated, as I suspect the hangups were.

 

[The Bread Guy]

First I've heard of the hang-ups (not reading closely enough around here, I guess).  Were the hang-ups on reputable polling firms, or did the caller even identify themselves?

If that's the case, I wonder why MSM isn't asking around - oh, wait, that would be giving both sides, wouldn't it?  Silly me, expecting that...

 

[mainerjohnthomas]

Why is it that the Canadian public and Canadian media are under the illusion that polling companies are without bias?  Neither polling companies, nor advertising companies are independent neutral parties, but mercenaries hired by parties with vested interests for specific purposes.  Some polls are not for public consumption, and are to determine how the public feels about a subject for the purposes of determining policy stances.  Other polls are done for the purposes of demonstrating a public mandate to pursue the course of action that the paying party already supports.  IE the NRA does not pay pollsters to determine that there is support for disarming the American public, nor does the NDP commission polls to determine that the Canadian public supports armed intervention in Afghanistan.  The poll questions are slanted to guarantee the results desired by the pollsters.  An example from a poll I was given over the phone last year about the Afghan mission (a poll commissioned by the NDP) "Did I support further Canadian casualties in Afghanistan?  Strongly opposed to further casualties, moderately opposed to more casualties, moderately in favour of more casualties, or strongly in favour of more casualties?"
    This poll was then released to show declining support for the mission.  Does anyone see that in the question asked?  The question asked was not released to the media, only the sample size, percentage, and error rate; giving the implication that this was in some sense an impartial scientific research, not a public relations ploy.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

The polling company's are basically the worst kind of advertising shysters as they hide behind a veneer of "nuetrality" when they are anything but.........would make a nice news exposé.
Bet any of the news outlets would touch it?  Every ratings poll from than on in would probably have them dead last for the advertising buy rates.

 

[GMan87]

The polling company's are basically the worst kind of advertising shysters as they hide behind a veneer of "nuetrality" when they are anything but.........would make a nice news exposé..

Here's a little something to think about, from Penn and Teller's Bullshit, an exchange between a leading US pollster and some guy walking on the street (seems like a normal guy, not an idiot or anything):

Does the federal government spend too much or too little on social programs for illegal immigrants in this country? I think they spend too much on illegal programs for immigrants

Would you deny emergency room care to an illegal immigrant?  No I wouldn't.

Would you deny the children of illegal immigrants the ability to attend a public school here ?   No I woudln't

So you'd spend money on education for them, you'd spend money on health care for them, but you think we're spending too much money on them?  Yes I do

So really using those similar questions, the pollster could easily either say the man supports social programs for illegal immigrants or does not support them.

 

[career_radio-checker]

Owww PLEASE!!! I'll say anything !!! I can't take anymore schtick!!!
Seriously, it really hurts my fragile head trying to read those questions.

 

[Teflon]

Here's a site for numerous CBC Polls on Afghanistan:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/afghanistan/afghanistan-survey2006.html

Green content is my additions

1. Generally speaking, would you say that your opinion of the Canadian Armed Forces is
Very favourable 34
Somewhat favourable 39
Not very fabourable 14
Not at all favourable 10
Don't know/No answer 3

2. Do you feel more proud, less proud, or about the same pride, in the Canadian Forces today as you did five years ago?
More proud 38
Less proud 13
About the same pride 46
Don't know/No answer 3


3. When it comes to Canada's role in the world, some people say that Canada should focus on a peace-building role in the world. Others say that Canada should focus on active combat roles with our allied countries. Which view is closer to your own? 
Peace-building roles 80
Active combat roles with allied countries 16
Don't know/No answer 4

4. I would like to know how you feel about Canada's involvements around the world in the last several decades. Please tell me if you are proud or not proud of each of the following: a) Canada's involvement in United Nations peace-building operations around the world since World War Two?
Proud 92
Not proud 6
Don't know/No answer 2

4. b) Canada's non-participation in the U.S.-led war in Iraq?
Proud 78
Not proud 20
Don't know/No answer 2

4. c) Canada's recent involvement in Afghanistan?
Proud 55
Not proud 42
Don't know/No answer 3


5. As you may know, Canadian troops are now active in Afghanistan. Why do you think Canadian troops are there? What is the reason or reasons? 
Support U.S. troops / U.S. foreign policy / help George Bush 22
Support NATO/support United Nations 5
Restore peace 13
Defeat Taliban / warlords / insurgents 9
Help create democracy 8
War on terror / defeat world terrorism/defeat Al-Qaeda 8
Peacekeeping 24
Humanitarian assistance/reconstruction 18
Negative U.S. influence / pressure 2
Stabilize Afghanistan 2
Sent by Canadian government 2
Other SPECIFY 6
DK/NA=0 11

6. Regarding Canada's military involvement in Afghanistan, do you... Nov 2006
Strongly approve 19
Somewhat approve 31
Somewhat disapprove 18
Strongly disapprove 30

7. As far as you know, is the Canadian mission in Afghanistan part of a U.S.-led coalition or part of a United Nations approved NATO mission?
U.S. led coalition? 35
UN approved NATO mission? 53
Don't know/No answer 12

8. In your opinion, should Canadian Forces
Stay in Afghanistan past the year 2009 10
Stay in Afghanistan until 2009 and then return to Canada, or 23
Return from Afghanistan before 2009?  59
Depends  –
Don't know/No answer 8

9. Do you think in the end the Canadian mission in Afghanistan is likely to be successful or not successful?
Successful 34
Not successful 58
Don't know/No answer 7

10. Here are some reasons why Canadian Forces might stay in or might leave Afghanistan a) Some experts say that if Canadian Forces left Afghanistan, it would undermine international efforts to help that country and the Taliban might return to power there. In your opinion is this
A good reason to stay in Afghanistan, or 58
Not a good reason to stay in Afghanistan? 38
Don't know/No answer 4

10. b) Some experts say that the Canadian mission in Afghanistan has increased Canada's image and influence in world affairs. In your opinion is this
A good reason to stay in Afghanistan, or 32
Not a good reason to stay in Afghanistan? 64
Don't know/No answer 4

10. c) So far 42 Canadian soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan. In your opinion is this
A good reason to leave Afghanistan, or 41
Not a good reason to leave Afghanistan? 56
Don't know/No answer 3

10. d) Some experts say that Canada's mission in Afghanistan will increase the chances of Canada becoming a target of terrorist attacks. In your opinion is this
A good reason to leave Afghanistan, or 44
Not a good reason to leave Afghanistan? 53
Don't know/No answer 3

Well with the exception of the polling publics apparent confusion on Question 5 and their opinion on Question 9 it seems to gather a different picture then the lefts "The vast majority of Canadians want us out of Afghanistan" slant.....

 

[FredDaHead]

I think in Question 5, "Restoring Peace" and "Peacekeeping" probably divided up the people who don't really know the difference.  Same for the whole Defeat Talibans/Defeat Al Qaeda/Stabilise Afghanistan... looks like they could be bunched up under some "Kill bad guys"-type answer.

I think Question 9 should have defined what "successful" means. Does it mean purging the country of all Taliban and insurgents or giving them a viable country with a police force that can control the bad elements? One is almost impossible, while the other is likely if we have the political will to keep at it.

 

[Trinity]

I think the fact that 35% of Canadians think this is a US led war
makes a huge difference on their opinion of it.

Although everyone here has run into it, only last week did I get someone
who I know throw in my face we are there because of Bush and Bush only.
My response... so why are the other 32 countries there supporting us?

No answer...

Supporting NATO is much easier than supporting Bush.  So how do
we disseminate this info.. other than us doing it person by person?

 

[ProPatria Mike]

I think the government needs to do more to define the mission in terms Canadians can understand. Judging by the respondents numbers, i cannot help but think a lot of Canadians are confused.

 

[Korus]

Weren't we only part of the US led coalition (under OEF) for Op Archer Roto 0? Then switched back to NATO for Roto 1?

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think the government needs to do more to define the mission in terms Canadians can understand. Judging by the respondents numbers, i cannot help but think a lot of Canadians are confused.

Send them here: http://ruxted.ca/index.php?/archives/24-The-Afghanistan-Debate.html and here: http://ruxted.ca/index.php?/archives/25-More-Free-Advice-for-Prime-Minister-Harper-Its-Time-to-Communicate.html and even here: http://ruxted.ca/index.php?/archives/10-Why-We-Are-In-Afghanistan-Joining-The-Dots.html

 

[Teflon]

Task Force Orion was under Operation Enduring Freedom till 1 Aug 06 when command was handed over to ISAF

I personally didn't find the transition difficult but I was departing shortly after (21 Aug)