Conservative minority government
- Thread starter Docherty
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 35
- Points
- 560
1. Harper will concentrate on a few key issues on a point by point basis in Parliament.
2. Parties are exhausted and impoverished by the election; most won't have the stomach for another fight. Most voters will be unimpressed as well.
3. The Liberals will have to do a leadership review and rebuild. If we are lucky, there will be a lot of self destructive infighting over the next few years, limiting their effectiveness.
4. If I were Harper, I would launch wide ranging investigations on Government finances as part of the accountability pledge. There are a decade + worth of scandals we KNOW about; what else will be discovered. Done correctly, this could drive a stake through the Liberal Party's heart for a generation or more. A two party parliament (Conservatives and NDP) with a sprinkling of independents and minor parties is something I could live with.
2. Parties are exhausted and impoverished by the election; most won't have the stomach for another fight. Most voters will be unimpressed as well.
3. The Liberals will have to do a leadership review and rebuild. If we are lucky, there will be a lot of self destructive infighting over the next few years, limiting their effectiveness.
4. If I were Harper, I would launch wide ranging investigations on Government finances as part of the accountability pledge. There are a decade + worth of scandals we KNOW about; what else will be discovered. Done correctly, this could drive a stake through the Liberal Party's heart for a generation or more. A two party parliament (Conservatives and NDP) with a sprinkling of independents and minor parties is something I could live with.
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 410
"Laurie Hawn"
What's hIS riding?
What's hIS riding?
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 260
Tories swept Alberta.
Well, lets see if he holds up his promises to inject some cash into the military....
Well, lets see if he holds up his promises to inject some cash into the military....
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
After seeing the election results, my first thoughts on the CF was...you're screwed! The liberals will probably do whatever they can to derail the conservative agenda. That CF transformation was a liberal priority as well might be conveniently forgotten should it become politically expedient to do so. Martin's quitting as the leader of the liberal party will hopefully give the conservatives some time to act on their promises before the next election. My greatest fear was that Martin would stay on as PM and form a coalition gov't with Layton and the NDP. 
Buz
Buz
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 410
Bobbyoreo said:
I guess you didn't look at the final numbers, the tories are a MINORITY. The tories are going to have work well with all three parties, as even with the entire NDP caucus supporting them and the one independant that only equals 154 Seats, which is exactly HALF of Parliament. So the NDP certainly got enough seats to hold a considerable balance of power.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 410
The liberals and conservatives combined hold a majority of the seats correct?
While many of us dislike the liberals, they're not lightyears from the tories, they're certainly closer in terms of political ideology compared to the NDP or the Bloc. There's no reason they can't work together, that certainly seems to be what they're saying right now, and working on the assumption they're not complete idiots and children (a stretch maybe) perhaps they'll realise through a series of compromises and non-partisan politics that they can actually improve Canada somewhat.......and then marshmallows will rain from the skies and everyone will join hands and sing songs about flowers..and stickers.
While many of us dislike the liberals, they're not lightyears from the tories, they're certainly closer in terms of political ideology compared to the NDP or the Bloc. There's no reason they can't work together, that certainly seems to be what they're saying right now, and working on the assumption they're not complete idiots and children (a stretch maybe) perhaps they'll realise through a series of compromises and non-partisan politics that they can actually improve Canada somewhat.......and then marshmallows will rain from the skies and everyone will join hands and sing songs about flowers..and stickers.
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 410
Che said:
;D Hahahaha, I wish I had your optimism even if it is a bit sarcastic.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
I think if the liberals see Harpers numbers dropping in Quebec that they might try to recall a new election in 18 months just to screw with the Conservatives if for no other reason. Quebec i feel will be a big player in the upcoming months, if Harper continues to keep his support there, or even drum up more of it, they wont want to call him out and risk giving him a majority, especially if in the time leading up to an election, he has done good by all those who didn't vote for him.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 410
Well, the way I see it is the first thing that will happen is a budget will be put forward which includes the GST cut. Next will be the government accountability act. If either of those two lose a confidence vote, we'll be back to the polls and the Conservatives will come out with a majority and smelling like roses since the two promises they made were shot down by the rest of parliament. Then they can say "look, we tried to clean up government/cut the GST as we promised but we weren't allowed to by the other parties". Bingo bango, Conservative majority.
- Reaction score
- 7,949
- Points
- 1,160
One group of potential supporters that Harper has a better shot at keeping on side than the Liberals did - The Council of First Ministers. If he can square the circle with them ( in the House he would likely have the support of the Bloc as well when dealing with issues that concern the provinces) then he would have a very powerful group of allies to counter the Liberals and NDPers with their centralizing tendencies and may even be able to get something done on Senate reform. That alone has the potential of reducing regional alienation.
One thing I would point out when analyzing this election - the scale of the map necessary for the Recce keeps getting smaller. Libs, NDP and Tories now all have representation from coast to coast and this is a good thing. The "islands" of concentration of support are now not characterized by region, or by province so much as by community. There is less opportunity to pit one Canadian against another in the hope of electoral advantage.
One thing I would point out when analyzing this election - the scale of the map necessary for the Recce keeps getting smaller. Libs, NDP and Tories now all have representation from coast to coast and this is a good thing. The "islands" of concentration of support are now not characterized by region, or by province so much as by community. There is less opportunity to pit one Canadian against another in the hope of electoral advantage.
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 430
TCBF said:
There is a good chance the next liberal leader will not be from Quebec, as there is no one there who is a "Big name' for lack of better words, who would they pick there, Pettigrew or Coderre, about the only name might be Dion. whereas you have Michael Ignatieff a man like that wont sit in the back benches by choice, Belinda Stronach or even Scott Brinson, would that not be poetic Justice, the Liberal party led by a turncoat.
What I think you are going to see is a Liberal party that cleans house. They are very much aware that they lost this one based on scandal and the perception of corruption, not on the issues themselves (Harper was smart enough to downplay some of the extreme views held by certain Reformers and not make this an issues-based campaign) The Conservative support, at least at this stage, is very soft in many circles, with a lot of Conservative voters "holding their nose and voting" because they wanted to send a message to the Grits.
Harper's challenge will be to win over these "temporary" conservatives. The Grits will need to win them back. They can do that by cleaning out all the vestiges of the (percieved to be) corrupt Old Guard and starting fresh - and with Martin already stepping down as leader, that process has already started.
In order to really capture these small "c" conservatives, he is going to have to play a much more centrist position than he could get away with if he had a majority. He is going to have to prove that, no, he doesn't really drink his own blood and keep a dragon in his shed - because the second he starts edging towards an extreme right, the more the Grits are going to pound him with it.
Plus he really doesn't have many friends to work with. The Grits and the NDP are natural allies, and working with the Bloc is political suicide. He's really kinda out there on his own, which means he's going to have to play nice with (at least) the Grits if he wants to get anything done.
I think the Accountability Act will go through in some form, because the Grits can't possibly be seen to be arguing against accountability. But I don't think we'll see any big investigations of past malfesence, because the Grits won't want to see all their durty laundry come to light, and will promise to fight EVERYTHING the Reformers want if they go down that road.
I also think the Gun Registry is dead. That was a huge white elephant that I think many (most?) Liberals wanted to see killed off, but couldn't because of the loss of face. This is an easy Reform win, and I don't think the Grits will fight it at all.
Senate Reform and the GST cut.... I don't think either will happen. The Grits have too much power invested in the Senate as it sits so I think they'll fight this tooth and nail. The NDP and the Bloc might ally with Reform on this (as it offers a way for them into the Senate) but I just don't think the Reformers have the ability to carry this. The GST cut I don't think will go through because we simply need the tax revenue to keep paying down the National Debt - and that is THE most important task for ANY Canadian government. See http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget05/bp/bpa2e.htm I expect the Grits to take a hard line on this, and Harper, not being an idiot (he may want to put a laser on the moon to carve his initials into Greenland, but he's a pretty smart guy) will probably see the wisdom of this once he can see into the books.
Similarily, I don't expect Harper to open the issue of either Abortion or Same-Sex Marriage, because these are drink-you-own-blood issues that chase off his newest supporters. If he tries, we have an instant vote of non-confidence and we go back to the polls.
The one thing that really has me worried though is the military angle. Harper has military advisors who seem to go back to the bad old days of wimpy CF leadership circaf Somalia, and who appear to have a SERIOUS hate-on for Hillier. I'm worried that Gen Hillier is going to get cut off at the knees and marginalized, that we will go back to "peacekeeping" missions where we aren't expected to fight back, and that equipment procurement will go back to extended boondoggles designed to put cash in the pockets of Canadian defense firms, instead of putting the best kit possible in the hands of the troops. I'm equally afraid that we will knuckle in to every single demand the Yanks make,no matter how stupid or bad for Canada. NOTHING would make me happier than to be proven dead wrong on this.
DG
Harper's challenge will be to win over these "temporary" conservatives. The Grits will need to win them back. They can do that by cleaning out all the vestiges of the (percieved to be) corrupt Old Guard and starting fresh - and with Martin already stepping down as leader, that process has already started.
In order to really capture these small "c" conservatives, he is going to have to play a much more centrist position than he could get away with if he had a majority. He is going to have to prove that, no, he doesn't really drink his own blood and keep a dragon in his shed - because the second he starts edging towards an extreme right, the more the Grits are going to pound him with it.
Plus he really doesn't have many friends to work with. The Grits and the NDP are natural allies, and working with the Bloc is political suicide. He's really kinda out there on his own, which means he's going to have to play nice with (at least) the Grits if he wants to get anything done.
I think the Accountability Act will go through in some form, because the Grits can't possibly be seen to be arguing against accountability. But I don't think we'll see any big investigations of past malfesence, because the Grits won't want to see all their durty laundry come to light, and will promise to fight EVERYTHING the Reformers want if they go down that road.
I also think the Gun Registry is dead. That was a huge white elephant that I think many (most?) Liberals wanted to see killed off, but couldn't because of the loss of face. This is an easy Reform win, and I don't think the Grits will fight it at all.
Senate Reform and the GST cut.... I don't think either will happen. The Grits have too much power invested in the Senate as it sits so I think they'll fight this tooth and nail. The NDP and the Bloc might ally with Reform on this (as it offers a way for them into the Senate) but I just don't think the Reformers have the ability to carry this. The GST cut I don't think will go through because we simply need the tax revenue to keep paying down the National Debt - and that is THE most important task for ANY Canadian government. See http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget05/bp/bpa2e.htm I expect the Grits to take a hard line on this, and Harper, not being an idiot (he may want to put a laser on the moon to carve his initials into Greenland, but he's a pretty smart guy) will probably see the wisdom of this once he can see into the books.
Similarily, I don't expect Harper to open the issue of either Abortion or Same-Sex Marriage, because these are drink-you-own-blood issues that chase off his newest supporters. If he tries, we have an instant vote of non-confidence and we go back to the polls.
The one thing that really has me worried though is the military angle. Harper has military advisors who seem to go back to the bad old days of wimpy CF leadership circaf Somalia, and who appear to have a SERIOUS hate-on for Hillier. I'm worried that Gen Hillier is going to get cut off at the knees and marginalized, that we will go back to "peacekeeping" missions where we aren't expected to fight back, and that equipment procurement will go back to extended boondoggles designed to put cash in the pockets of Canadian defense firms, instead of putting the best kit possible in the hands of the troops. I'm equally afraid that we will knuckle in to every single demand the Yanks make,no matter how stupid or bad for Canada. NOTHING would make me happier than to be proven dead wrong on this.
DG
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 410
I hope your wrong about the military aspect. I think Harper is one of our biggest supports (so it seems). Hopefully he visits this board.
D
dutchie
Guest
Re: Liberal succesor. I believe Ignatief lost his bid, so unless he's going to replace a liberal who won last night, he's out. Manley, IIRC, is a Chretien cronie. I'm not sure if I would want him as leader (wait a second, maybe I do 
). McKenna is a real possibility, especially if he is fired by Harper. And this may sound odd, but Stronach may make a run. I'd love it if she won. Talk about taking candy away from a baby.
). McKenna is a real possibility, especially if he is fired by Harper. And this may sound odd, but Stronach may make a run. I'd love it if she won. Talk about taking candy away from a baby.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 60
i know i do not have the right to say since i did not vote...but i truly feel we will be at the voting booths in 18 months again...i did not vote since i do not understand much about politics and i wanted to vote from my opinion and not someone elses...i have made far too many mistakes in my life from following others choices and not my own...at least i can say, hey i did not vote, so i did not contribute to stephen harpers win....
....
