Cuba next? (split from Iran, other threads)

[Eaglelord17]

By seized, you mean stole, right? That is Ultimately what this is about. If there were no consequences for those actions, the US would be seen as toothless and everyone would be doing it

Nationalized, stole, who cares? The Cubans even offered to pay for it initially but the US refused due to it not being the way they wanted. I believe the term when a government seizes assets and offers compensation is expropriation which is legal everywhere.

There is also reasons why they nationalized it such as American companies being told what to do with the assets and refusing to work for the Cubans (such as the US oil companies refusing to refine Soviet oil).

I can tell you for a fact the States wouldn’t tolerate a foreign country telling their companies to actively work against America with assets in America, they would forcably nationalize or make American companies take over (see tik tok as a example, and even then they aren’t actively working against America).

Most of the American issue with Cuba is a very long temper tantrum that they didn’t get their way. It is more about them not being in control of the situation than anything else.

If the ‘stolen’ part is such a big deal maybe America should start repaying all the countries and people they have stolen from. Trillions owed to the natives, billions to the British, Hawaiians, etc. But wait that’s different right?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The US is still mad that their companies lost money from assets seized when the Communists took over from the brutal dictatorship that the US favoured. Any attempt to blame the blockade on ‘dictatorships’ is just a lie, the US has no issues with dictatorships, as long as they play ball in America’s favour. Look at Iran right now, they have been mad there for almost 50 years because the brutal monarch which favoured the US was replaced.

This has nothing to do with what is morally right, the US doesn’t care about that, they only care about their pocket books and who is playing ball with them. Cuba does not and as such is punished for it.

Yes, the US backed side were bastards, but the Communists were even bigger bastards and also sent their bastards all over the place to cause trouble and death. They also allowed the USSR to set up missiles there to threaten the US. There is no way the US will ever allow that to happen again. The type of communism that Cuba represents was responsible for the deaths of 50-120 million people in the 20th century. We should treat them the same as we do Nazi's.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Protestors in Cuba burn the Communist headquarters

 

[Eaglelord17]

Yes, the US backed side were bastards, but the Communists were even bigger bastards and also sent their bastards all over the place to cause trouble and death. They also allowed the USSR to set up missiles there to threaten the US. There is no way the US will ever allow that to happen again. The type of communism that Cuba represents was responsible for the deaths of 50-120 million people in the 20th century. We should treat them the same as we do Nazi's.

Why would the USSR want missiles there, was it maybe in direct response to the US setting up missiles in Turkey and threatening the USSR?

Either way that was a lifetime ago. Those belligerents on both sides are long gone. There is governments a lot worse than Cuba which the US does business with so this isn’t about morals.

If they were truly taking a stance against dealing with dictators, communists, etc. I would see the embargo as justified. Because they aren’t it is just hypocritical nonsense they throw out there to muddy the waters on their illegal blockade.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It takes time and effort to keep Cuba under check and there is no guarantee that the regime would not attempt to do anything stupid again. Good riddance to them.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035616702122377472

Cuba next up for Regime change

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I'll take "Only allowed staff jobs and not to lead soldiers for a $100" Alex.

How many times do I have to tell you people? It's KEN, KEN, KEN. I loved Alex, but he is gone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035616702122377472

Cuba next up for Regime change

I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

 

[ytz]

I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

Might need to do Cuba to distract from Iran. Lol.

 

[Remius]

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

Or Cuba could go the way Haiti has and turn into a mess with a massive brain drain that it will never recover from. Time will tell.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

Love of exiles/expats for the US is almost a given. Sentiment of Cubans in Cuba is harder to judge. Generally, though, peoples who got out from under tyranny over the decades have shown that they hated the tyrants more than outsiders the tyrants tried to blame for their troubles.

 

[ytz]

There are a lot of Cubans that love the US and risked a lot to get there. If the regime finally collapses, those Cubans will be the ones to finance the rebirth of the country.

I doubt it. Really depends on what regime emerges after. They can replace the commies with some corrupt dictatorship. Meets American goals. Won't do squat for the average Cuban and I doubt it attracts investment. If you're some wealthy Cuban-American why would you go invest where some warlord is just going to take your shit? Getting rid of a regime, doesn't necessarily guarantee the rule of law needed to secure investment.

There's a distinction between legal and illegal war and war crimes committed within that war.

Just wanted to say your whole post was fantastic. Thanks for the thought and nuance.

But honestly I think whether it is or isn't a war crime is probably less relevant than whether it helps win the war. Whatever winning is at this point...

Anyone in the region can hold the Gulf hostage. Makes them all equals, really.

Only one of them has enough of a suicidal disposition to hurt themselves while hurting others. And, unfortunately, that gives them escalation dominance.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Or Cuba could go the way Haiti has and turn into a mess with a massive brain drain that it will never recover from. Time will tell.

I don't get that vibe from them. Haiti is some weird 7th level of Dantes Hell. Yet the Dominican Republic on the same Island can basically keep the crap together. I don't think the Cubans will go full Capitalist, but will form some sort of democratic socialism with a health layer of free market to pay most of the bills. I expect a lot of countries would step up to help them transition and likley a good role for Canada to get involved in as we have a good rep with them. A promise of aid tied to political reform.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I think the US may soon discover that, as much as they hate their government system, Cubans don't look at Americans as liberators after the US made ordinary Cubans suffer so much in the last 70 years, and even more lately.

That is most of the places the U.S. seeks influence.

 

[ytz]

I don't get that vibe from them. Haiti is some weird 7th level of Dantes Hell. Yet the Dominican Republic on the same Island can basically keep the crap together. I don't think the Cubans will go full Capitalist, but will form some sort of democratic socialism with a health layer of free market to pay most of the bills. I expect a lot of countries would step up to help them transition and likley a good role for Canada to get involved in as we have a good rep with them. A promise of aid tied to political reform.

I'm not sure we can say with any certainty what would emerge. Look at Iraq. The Americans thought purging everybody with the slightest ties to the regime was a good idea. In reality, de-Baathification massively fueled the insurgency there when a whole bunch of fighting age men who just got Baath party memberships to get government were now threatened with permanent unemployment.

I hope Cuba doesn't go that way. And I hope you're right. And I do hope we help. A stable Cuba would be great for us too. But it's a gamble, nevertheless.

Unlike Ukraine, the majority of Iranians despise their government. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

It's more complex.

They hate the regime. They also resent the sanctions. And fear balkanization, possibly even more than anything else.

Don't take my word for it. Just look at how even the diaspora reacts to the idea of arming the Kurds or attacks on infrastructure. The exiled Shah is calling on Trump not to attack infrastructure right now.

Saying they hate the regime is incredibly one note and ignores the nuance of what Iranians actually think about their situation. And unfortunately not understanding that might lead to decisions that actually don't cause them to rebel. Floating the idea of arming the Kurds, for example.

 

[FJAG]

I don't get that vibe from them. Haiti is some weird 7th level of Dantes Hell. Yet the Dominican Republic on the same Island can basically keep the crap together. I don't think the Cubans will go full Capitalist, but will form some sort of democratic socialism with a health layer of free market to pay most of the bills. I expect a lot of countries would step up to help them transition and likley a good role for Canada to get involved in as we have a good rep with them. A promise of aid tied to political reform.

This is going off thread a bit, but some of us remember a briefly softer socialist Cuba which became a pariah because it had to align with the USSR to resist American aggression. That caused it to foment and support, as a proxy for the USSR, revolutionary ideology and action in South and Central America and Africa.

While the country appears as a nice tourist haven, the countries most supportive of Cuba at this time are Russia and China (and formerly, Venezuela). In the absence of a thorough dive into whatever intelligence there is on Cuban influence operations in the Western hemisphere I'd approach any overtures to them with great caution.

That said, I don't think much of Trump's current approach. The US approach to that country is complex and greatly influenced by past anti-communist prejudices and the Cuban ex-pat community. There have been decades of missed opportunities to bring Cuba into the fold. If anything, the current US actions will drive it away.

 

[Lumber]

This is going off thread a bit, but some of us remember a briefly softer socialist Cuba which became a pariah because it had to align with the USSR to resist American aggression. That caused it to foment and support, as a proxy for the USSR, revolutionary ideology and action in South and Central America and Africa.

While the country appears as a nice tourist haven, the countries most supportive of Cuba at this time are Russia and China (and formerly, Venezuela). In the absence of a thorough dive into whatever intelligence there is on Cuban influence operations in the Western hemisphere I'd approach any overtures to them with great caution.

That said, I don't think much of Trump's current approach. The US approach to that country is complex and greatly influenced by past anti-communist prejudices and the Cuban ex-pat community. There have been decades of missed opportunities to bring Cuba into the fold. If anything, the current US actions will drive it away.

Is the American approach complex? Seems like it's nothing more than "choke them until they pass out and/or roll over".

 

[ytz]

Curious to see how much influence the Cuban refugees have after this administration gets burned by a distorted picture from Iranian exiles.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Curious to see how much influence the Cuban refugees have after this administration gets burned by a distorted picture from Iranian exiles.

Cuban exiles have a fairly strong influence in florida which is why the US Administration acts the way it does. As for "distorted Iranian exiles" I have 50,000 living near me and they have a very good idea of what is going on in Iran , now and before as there was a constant flow of people and money to and from Iran. There is a tiny number of pro-regime Iranians here, but they generally keep a low profile.

 

[RangerRay]

Someone remind me what, in the year 2026, is the purported justification for a continued U.S. economic sanctions regime and oil blockade on Cuba?

communist dictatorship?

China and Vietnam enter the chat.

 

[Genetk44]

China and Vietnam enter the chat.

This!!!! If the US had been treating with Cuba in the same way they have been treating with Vietnam for the past 40 years there is a very good chance that Cuba would be a much more capitalist oriented, social-democratic country today. To the point its authoritarian government would soon be a complete democracy a la Scandinavia just by a sort of osmosis.