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Election 2015

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In the Globe and Mail's Economy Lab section regular contributor Mike Moffatt takes a first look at a statement Justin Trudeau made in the Toronto Star and in La Presse; Moffatt took a general look at the piece abd derived three policy proposals:

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/a-first-peek-at-justin-trudeaus-policy-positions/article4790699/
A first peek at Justin Trudeau's policy positions

MIKE MOFFATT
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Oct. 31 2012

Liberal Party leadership candidate Justin Trudeau has been largely silent on where he stands on major policy issues. Economy Lab's Mike Moffatt parses a recent article written by Mr. Trudeau for clues.

Introduction

In a Toronto Star opinion piece, Liberal leadership candidate Justin Trudeau identified stagnant middle class incomes as a significant problem that needs to be addressed by the federal government.  I would quibble with Mr. Trudeau’s characterization of this an escalating situation, as there was a massive jump in inequality during the 1990s with a levelling off in the last 10 years.  However, there is a great deal of data showing falling or stagnant wage income for the lowest three income quintiles since 1976, so it is not an unreasonable focus for public policy. 

True to Mr. Trudeau’s current style, the piece was maddeningly light on specifics on how he would address the situation.  Along with identifying the “continued need for a stable social safety net”, Mr. Trudeau indicated three struggles of the middle-class: mortgage debt from rising housing prices, access to post-secondary education and lack of access to foreign capital.  While Mr. Trudeau has given us little to work with, it is possible to analyze his proposals in general.

Foreign investment in Canada

Trudeau on foreign direct investment: "Because capital is mobile and our domestic market is small, we need foreign direct investment and export growth to support job creation here in Canada. So Canadians need a more coherent and strategic position on trade and foreign investment than the 'Keystone Kops' approach currently on display in Ottawa."

Analysis: A well-constructed and coherent FDI policy would increase inflows of capital into the country.  This would both increase economic activity and increase middle class wages, through higher demand for labour.  Our current policies are costing Canadians billions and need to be reformed.

Grade: A-.  Specifics are needed, as there is the potential for a replacement to the “net benefit test” to be poorly designed and counterproductive.  This idea, however, has A+ potential.

Housing

Trudeau on House Prices: "At the same time, the middle class is carrying unprecedented debt levels and facing an increasingly inaccessible housing market, especially in cities like Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver."

Analysis: There is arguably a generational inequality issue here, as first time house buyers struggle to afford houses while families who bought houses 30 years ago receive windfall profits.  Apart from changing the tax code to apply capital gains taxes on home sales (which is almost certainly a non-starter politically) I do not see how the federal government can “fix” this problem.

Grade: Incomplete. I am unsure how Trudeau will turn this problem into actionable policy.

Post-secondary education

Trudeau on Post-Secondary Education: "The solutions we propose will have to be affordable. We need a more inclusive approach to post-secondary education — universities, technical schools, colleges, trades, apprenticeships."

Analysis: A better educated work force is likely to be a more productive one, raising the overall standard of living. But does this help the middle class? By increasing the skilled labour pool, in the short run this will lower wages as firms have a larger pool of workers to select from.  Lowering overall tuition (and it is unclear Mr. Trudeau is proposing this) would lower costs for many young members of the middle class, along with lowering costs for students from higher income families as well.

Grade: C. I am tempted to give this a D or even an F, but there may be some way to salvage this and create useful policy. As it stands now, it appears to be counterproductive.


But, despite the pretty poor showing on policy it appears that many, many Canadians, a plurality, anyway, of those under 60, are so celebrity obsessed and so devoid of any rational interest in what their vote might mean, that they would be willing to give a Liberal Party led by M. Trudeau a shot at governing. Our national education system is, and has been for a generation, a shocking failure!
 
Rather than attack ads, maybe all that is needed is a constant barrage of "what do you mean by that?" questions. If he is inarticulate and unable to answer (and based on personal observation rather than controlled media hype, I suspect this will be the case), then he will be done like dinner
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And the Globe and Mail reports, with a headline suggesting that the CPC broke an election promise, that "New year-end numbers reveal the federal government quietly cut spending by $8-billion after Canadians handed the Conservatives a majority mandate ... [and] ... the government’s critics say the latest figures are another example of Parliament being kept in the dark when it comes to Conservative spending cuts."

Good on the government; the Good Grey Globe's reportorial biases are showing again.


More on this, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/10/31/john-ivison-conservatives-battle-over-whether-spending-cuts-cost-votes/
Conservatives battle over whether spending cuts cost votes

John Ivison

Oct 31, 2012

Did you hear that the Conservatives underspent their budget by $8-billion last year? Or that the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency handed out 25% fewer grants in 2011/12?

Probably not. Both numbers were revealed in the Public Accounts this week but have not been trumpeted by any government ministers.

The Conservative government has been surprisingly reticent about touting its fiscal conservative credentials.

The reason given by some is that senior figures around the Prime Minister, including his chief of staff, Nigel Wright, believe that cuts cost votes.

Others inside the party insist that displaying common sense, transparency and efficiency with the public finances will win the Tories the next election.

The battle for the soul of the Conservative party is playing itself out on a daily basis — not only around the Cabinet table but anywhere conservatives are gathered together.

“We need to get a set of balls and convince people that efficiencies mean lower taxes and better services. It’s the last bastion and we have to do it early in our majority,” said one senior Conservative. He said that influential figures in the Prime Minister’s Office, such as Mr. Wright, are more cautious and worried that talk of cuts will backfire with voters.

But advocates of running the next election on a tough fiscal conservative platform point to an Abacus Data poll from earlier this year that suggested six in 10 Canadians supported cuts to the federal public service.

Tony Clement’s Treasury Board Secretariat has been at the forefront of moves to streamline government and “rein in entrenched entitlements.”

Some proposals, such as the moves to reduce the flow of senior bureaucrats who leave the public service only to return as consultants, have faced resistance from civil servants in the Privy Council Office. In the case of the bureaucracy’s revolving door, PCO was backed by the Prime Minister’s Office, which was concerned they would end up putting the spotlight on a problem they themselves created during seven years of lavish spending in departments like National Defence.

“Do No Harm” may not rival “Yes We Can” as an inspiring call to political arms, but it seems to embody the current mood in the Prime Minister’s Office

Last summer, Mr. Clement said he planned to amend government policy so that contracts with former public servants required ministerial approval before being signed. The clear implication was that approval would only be forthcoming on the rarest of occasions.

Yet Wednesday, Treasury Board unveiled a watered down plan that will merely require departments to publish on their websites those contracts over $10,000 that have been awarded to former public servants already receiving a government pension.

Andrew MacDougall, the prime minister’s director of communications, pointed out that the government has already identified $5.2-billion in annual savings and is committed to identifying and eliminating further duplication. “We’re not shy in saying that we want to get back to balanced budgets. That’s a huge political priority,” he said.

Even the Parliamentary Budget Officer, hardly the Conservative government’s BFF, noted in a report this week that a reduction in growth of the Canada Health Transfer beyond 2016/17, an increase in the age of eligibility for Old Age Security and a reduction in direct program expenses will have a major impact on the sustainability of the public finances going forward. Program expenses will be “essentially frozen” for six years — well below the historic average growth of 4.3%.

But as Mr. MacDougall pointed out, “every cut gets noticed.”

We need to get a set of balls and convince people that efficiencies mean lower taxes and better services

Stephen Taylor, a director at the National Citizens Coalition (the organization once headed up by Stephen Harper) said that the government has been sheepish about any cuts that it has made. “They’re not putting them in the front window and saying ‘we’re proud of that.’ That’s too bad to me,” he said. The goal of the NCC, he said, is to change the culture of Canada so that news like the $8-billion in spending cut last year is heralded by governments, not hushed up.

That many members of the federal government feel the same way is yet another indicator that there is a restlessness on the Conservative side of the House. There is a tangible feeling that time is running out and they’d better get on with whatever it is they wanted to achieve as MPs — be it abortion legislation or cutting the size of government — before they are someday booted from power by an irate electorate.

The strategists in the PMO would counter that the best way to ensure that does not happen is to ensure voters do not become irate. There is truth in Dalton Camp’s old maxim that governments are not defeated — rather “they grab themselves by their own lapels and hurl themselves from office.” By this logic, the Conservatives will win the next election, as long as they do nothing that might annoy voters unnecessarily.

“Do No Harm” may not rival “Yes We Can” as an inspiring call to political arms, but it seems to embody the current mood in the Prime Minister’s Office.

National Post


I can appreciate the PMO's dilemma: I am a pretty much bedrock small government Conservative, so I am, of course, very pleased with what the Harper/Flaherty team has achieved, but I'm part of a small minority and I have no place else to go. Prime Minister Harper and his party need the "undecided" voters who are timid and very, very conscious of their own entitlements; they are, very often, not persuaded that spending cuts help them.
 
I might suggest: "Better to under promise and over deliver" as a theme.

It might make some folks happy to bellow to the herd that they are being driven.  But often that only results in an unproductive stampede.

Better by far to keep nudging the cattle to water at their own pace and then be able to crow a bit once they are there.

Tell folks that in 4 years time they will have 32 BCAD taken out of their pockets and they will stampede.

Tell folks in 4 years time that they have saved 32 BCAD and they will ask for more of the same management.
 
Trying to explain the 60/40 split in the electorate, the past tem years in Ontario, the US election, the Quebec election and a host of local issues to myself, it occurred to me that the answer had already been discovered in the past:

In the end more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free.

-- Edward Gibbon,
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Actually, I think the Tories can, very broadly, concede most of young (18-35 year old) vote to the left ~ it's not going Conservative anyway so why waste resources chasing a political mirage?

Social conservatism is an advantage in bigger, more 'electorally lucrative' niches: Asian immigrants, for example, where even 20 somethings are more conservative than their Euro-Canadian confreres. Thus I don't think Prime Minister Harper needs to "ditch" his social conservative members at all - just direct them towards audiences where they can do the most good/least harm. The Liberals are, actively, giving the boot to their social conservatives and I suspect a pro-life or anti-same sex marriage view will get short shrift from Thomas Mulcair, too, so the Tories have that niche to themselves. The best course open is to downplay it in late 2014 and throughout 2015, except in a few ridings, including several in suburban Toronto.


In some immediate post election analyses pundits are suggesting that I'm wrong and that the "youth" vote can be mobilized and can be decisive. If that's the case then I may have to rethink some of my ingrained assumptions.
 
Although this is an American article, I think it outlines one of the fundimental issues Western civilization as a whole is faceing. We are being offered (at best) incrimental changes, but the entire civilizational structure is basically in need of a rebuild from the bottom up. That includes everything from practical changes to institutions to ensure positive outcomes (i.e. schools that actually educate students) to cultural attitudes ("entitled to my entitlements"). While many of the threads where I posted about this topic in the past seem to have gone into limbo; readers who are interested should be looking up Walter Russel Mead's "American Interest" blog, where he has posted many observations about how the "Blue model" (i.e. the Progressive model) is unwinding now that most of the basic assumptions underlying Progressiveism are no longer in play.

Getting to Post Progressive society is going to be a very wrenching process, and the observations about the razor thin electoral victory in the US election also apply to here. Being able to mobilize a few more people to come out on election day is not a mandate by any party for change, and the inverse appears to be true as well; parties and governments who know they have no real mandate for change will not make changes even as they see disaster approaching. (Look at how the EU and PIIG nations and governments are doing, or the US approaching the Fiscal Cliff, or Ontario under the McGuinty government).

http://downgradediary.blogspot.ca/2012/11/waiting-for-return-of-old-gods.html

Waiting for the Return of the Old Gods

A great article in Der Spiegel, hinging on this prediction for the U.S. of  "the debt drama of the next few months, the showdown and duel between Democrats and Republicans over which party can blame the other one for a national bankruptcy."

Plus:

In fact, [the political-economic system] is in the midst of a massive transformation process, a deep-seated change to our critical and debt-ridden system, which is suited to making us poor and destroying our prosperity, social security and democracy, and in the midst of an upheaval taking place behind the backs of those in charge.

A great bet is underway, a poker game with stakes in the trillions, between those who are buying time with central bank money and believe that they can continue as before, and the others, who are afraid of the biggest credit bubble in history and are searching for ways out of capitalism based on borrowed money.

Great. Yet it just says what we all know when we dare to think about it.

We're broke. Europe is broke. China is broke. The system will end.

I'd suggest this isn't just a financial system, but, as the above article suggests, a transformation of the world civilization. It's not like the Great Depression, it's more like the Renaissance or Reformation or the Industrial Revolution: one civilization is dying, another will take its place.

That's the real message of the election: There is no electoral majority of any significance either for either stimulus economics or cutback economics. Obama has no mandate; he merely was better in rousing his base for one day. Romney, even if he had squeaked out a "victory," would have had no backing for trying to reverse our headlong plunge toward the abyss.

We don't have the vision and/or guts to make the choices that could save us; so the crash will come
.

Maybe there isn't a way. Maybe we've gone too far; maybe as has been said democracy ends when 50.1 percent of the voters realize they can plunder the rich and the public treasury. Maybe the mass delusion that we can magically create wealth is too widespread.

My main consolation is that the change will uproot many of the delusions that have sprouted up. My main fear is that history shows this is never, ever, a peaceful process.

We believe we can wish wealth into being; we believe we can wish into being the moral rules we would prefer to have.

In either case it's as if we could by our regulations and slogans end the law of gravity, and fly wherever we wish.

We can't. So we will have to pay the price. Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) likes to quote a Kipling poem that, I predict, will be as prophetic of the 21st century as "The Second Coming" was of the murderous 20th:

AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

I have some optimism that will indeed be purged of our insanities and will come out better. Alas, I am probably too old to have much hope of seeing that day.
 
I don't put much stock in polls until we are just a few weeks from an election, but the Nanos leadership results may tell us something useful according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/opposition-doesnt-get-it-muckraking-only-briefly-sways-voters/article5547376/
Opposition doesn’t get it: Muckraking only briefly sways voters

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Nov. 22 2012

Stephen Harper, having paid the political price for the controversies that dogged his government last spring, appears to have been forgiven. In that forgiveness lies a fascinating insight into the relationship between the Prime Minister and the Canadian voter.

Canadians may not warm to Mr. Harper, but unless the headlines are screaming scandal, they trust him more than other politicians. And even though those headlines may temporarily shake that trust, as soon as the story moves off page one, the trust returns.

A Nanos Research Survey released Tuesday shows that the hit the Prime Minister took to his credibility in the wake of the omnibus bill, the furor over alleged electoral fraud and the controversies surrounding the F-35 fighter contract has dissipated.

The Nanos Leadership Index – a compendium of scores based on responses to questions about which federal political leader voters believe is most trustworthy and competent and has the best vision of the country – shows voter trust in Mr. Harper has returned to its traditional level of around 100.

To be precise, Mr. Harper earned a score of 104.2 in a poll conducted between Nov. 9 and Nov. 15. He has scored at or around 100 more often than not since the beginning of 2008.

Last July, as omnibusgate, robogate and F-35gate roiled the political waters, Mr. Harper’s trust index plummeted to an all-time low of 72.7. But since then that score has steadily improved.

For pollster Nik Nanos, the numbers demonstrate that voters are more interested in the overall ability of a government to govern – regardless of how they view the government leader personally – than in any particular kerfuffle..

“We shouldn’t confuse likeability with being able to govern,” Mr. Nanos said in an interview. “None of the opposition parties looks like a government in waiting. That just makes Stephen Harper look taller.”

Mr. Nanos observed that, unless one of the other political parties and its leader are able to present themselves as that elusive government-in-waiting, any controversy-du-jour eventually becomes “political wallpaper … part of the noise in Ottawa,” with voters defaulting to their traditional level of trust in the Conservative government.

In this respect, the poll for NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is particularly disheartening. With a leadership index of 43.6, less than half that of the Prime Minister, he has clearly not convinced Canadians that he and his team are ready and able to lead the country.

His predecessor, Jack Layton, typically scored in the same range, except for the tremendous spike in Spring 2011 that resulted in the NDP forming the official opposition.

The message for NDP and Liberal political strategists is stark: While there is short-term political gain to be had by hammering the government over defence procurement, dodgy election tactics or other alleged sins, those attacks have a limited shelf life.

Unless the news of Conservative malfeasance can be sustained, the voters are inclined to eventually discount them.

To defeat the Conservatives, in this environment, the opposition must do more than simply rake muck; they must fundamentally shake voter confidence in the ability of the Conservatives to mind the store, while boosting voter confidence in their own team.

This – through three elections, with an endless litany of contretemps between votes – they have failed to achieve. All the opposition has managed to accomplish has been to convert the Conservative minority government into a majority.

Sometimes it must be hard to get out of bed in the morning at Stornaway.

The Nanos poll also shows the Conservatives holding on to a modest lead in overall public support. If an election were held today, 34 per cent say they would vote Conservative, 29 per cent would vote Liberal – a considerable improvement on the 19 per cent the party obtained in the last election – while 27 per cent would support the NDP.

Nanos conducted a telephone survey of 1,004 Canadians, with the results considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


I think there is a lesson for the opposition here: "they must fundamentally shake voter confidence in the ability of the Conservatives to mind the store, while boosting voter confidence in their own team." It is, then, a "two front war," the hardest kind, even harder when, for both the Liberals and NDP, one must fight two enemies, the Conservatives and the other opposition party, on the "second front."
 
In addition to fighting a "two front war," both opposition parties must present discrete store-minding plans and policies that are a) credible to discerning voters and b) at least resonate with the remaining sheeple majority of voters.

So far, both the NDP and Liberals seem a little light on specifics.
 
They also need to provide platforms that are substantially different from one another. Enough so that voters have a clear choice. Currently the NDP and Lib policy books read very much alike. Further, there's a narrow band of voters that move on either side of the center, so the ground actually looks like this:

Liberals need to attract the swing voter, NDP voter and Bloc voter;
NDP needs to attract the swing voter, Liberal voter and Bloc voter; and
Conservatives need to attract the swing voter. It's unlikely they will gain voters from the Liberal or NDP camps.

The Bloc will likely play a larger role in the next election after buyer remorse kicks in.
 
I think last night's by-election results strengthen Prime Minister Harper's hand: the big win by moderate Erin O'Toole (in Durham) and the strong challenge posed to Wild Rose favourite Joan Crockatt by the "progressives" (in Calgary Centre) suggest, to me, that "Stephen Harper's Canada" is more Conservative, but not in the way that satisfies e.g. the religious right or frightens the "moderate centre." In other words he has dragged his party from the right to the right of centre, centre-right and centre, elbowing the Liberals out of the centre-right area and jamming them against the "right wing" of the NDP. It is not that Canada has changed very much, although it has changed some, it is that the Tories have changed a lot in ways that get approving nods  :nod: from many Canadians.
 
I agree. The confidence numbers for Harper vs all the others is a telling tale. He is doing a good job and people see it.
 
I believe that the Good Grey Globe's John Ibbitson has correctly analyzed the recent Calgary by-election in his column in one sentence:

"Economic conservatives can win elections, but social conservatism is a ticket to defeat."

I believe Stephen Harper has grasped this vital truth, but I suspect that a significant minority of CPC members are determined to hand power over to either the Liberals or NDP as soon as possible because they, the Tory so-cons, want to impose their fundamentally illberal and anti-democratic "values" on others.
 
Lord Black lays out a series of areas where our politicians should be focusing on. While you may not agree with all of his proposals (I don't), the fact that he is willing to go and put a lot of sacred cows on the barbeque is a good way to spark discussion. Sadly, I don't see the political establishment or the legacy media really engaging on thee topics, focusing on "gotchas" or otherwise trying to ignore the problems and hope they go away:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/12/01/conrad-black-of-warplanes-the-homeless-teachers-unions-oil-drugs-immigration-and-monetary-policy/

Conrad Black: Of warplanes, the homeless, teachers’ unions, oil, drugs, immigration and monetary policy

Conrad Black | Dec 1, 2012 12:01 AM ET | Last Updated: Dec 1, 2012 12:02 AM ET
More from Conrad Black

Thanks to readers for their responses to my suggestions for a new range of federal policies appropriate to Canada’s enhanced stature in a world altered by the retreat of Europe and the United States — which will remain my theme for this week’s column. This includes Robert Sciuk, whose letter was published here on Wednesday, who urged that Bombardier be incentivized to produce a better warplane than the F-35. Such a move may be late and uneconomic, but Bombardier could be incentivized to join an international syndicate, presumably with Europeans (if the Spanish and Swedes can do it, Canada can) to build the next generation of advanced fighter plane.

All serious countries need some proprietary position in the advanced aviation and automobile industries. In 1979, prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s talented chief of staff, Jim Coutts, and I were the only people I knew of who advocated Canada taking over Chrysler Corporation, when it could be had for almost nothing. (Lee Iacocca subsequently brought it back to life with government loans he repaid ahead of schedule.)

Canada has thoroughly outgrown the branch-plant status it necessarily had for most of its history. As our percentage of GDP represented by trade with the United States has declined from 43% to about 34%, where market forces and the national interest intersect, a similar trend should be encouraged in critical industries, without reminding anyone of the Foreign Investment Review Act of the Trudeau years.

It is scandalous that there really are homeless people in a rich country such as this. While many panhandlers may be charlatans, and medical problems may be at the root of much of what is real, it is disturbing to see people living in tents on each side of Toronto’s Don Valley Parkway as winter approaches.

Traditional methods of taxing peoples’ incomes and cycling the proceeds through the horribly expensive governmental apparatus to fund over-staffed assistance programs cannot get us any further toward the elimination of poverty. This should be the objective of welfare policy. Our society should not be in the business of leveling the outcomes in peoples’ lives, only ameliorating very bad outcomes. Thus, my suggestion of a self-eliminating wealth-tax as an extension of the regime accorded charitable contributions.

While education is not a federal matter, it receives a great deal of federal assistance, which should be conditionalized on countering the negative influence of teachers’ unions. Teachers cannot expect to be accepted indefinitely as a learned profession while intermittently behaving like an aggressive industrial union.

I accept that the labour market requires, and the importance of their work justifies, that teachers be well-paid. But people in public service must not strike, and teachers should be compensated in some reference to the performance of their students, who have to be tested disinterestedly, and not in a self-serving re-enactment of a children’s sports-day, whereby everybody wins to make the teachers look better than they are.

I think the outspoken financier Wolfie Shaw was correct when he wrote me that some civilized measure of corporal punishment could be reintroduced in schools and the penal system; and that parents shouldn’t fear police raids and being dragged into court for lightly smacking the rear of a bratty child. Obviously, this must not become a license to give a child a hematoma whenever a parent or teacher is in a bad mood. There was too much of it in the piping days when the rod was not spared, and much of that was deviant, but an absolute prohibition is excessive.

Now that the U.S. administration has killed the Keystone XL pipeline (at least for now), the smart move is not squabbling with the B.C. eco-militants and native peoples, but to ship the tar sands oil east and thereby eliminate the importation of foreign oil in eastern Canada. As American production increases and its oil imports decline, world oil prices are almost certain to fall; and Toronto and Montreal are better and more accessible markets than China. Anything that reduces oil revenue to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and their fanatical protégés, is a commendable geopolitical move.

Drugs cannot really be defeated by the criminal justice system, and should be legalized. Hard-drug users would have to register and submit to some treatment. Education and treatment will cure many users; criminal penalties only generate ruined lives and more ancillary crime.

On a loosely related note, Canada must accept private medicine. Patients and doctors who wish to opt out of public medical-care plans should be free to do so. If this does not shorten waiting lists, then starting doctors should, to be fully licensed, be required to contribute up to six months to emergency clinics and medical care to the disadvantaged. They will make it back later.

The objective is to assure a baseline of adequate and affordable care for everyone, not an absolute equality of standards of medical care for everyone regardless of means. The present system has shrunk hospital capacity and denied care to the public and every adult in the country knows that the country needs some measure of private medicine.

Canada needs more people, and large numbers could be attracted now from Europe and even, I suspect, the United States, partially reversing the tremendous drain from Canada to that country of bygone years.

As this influx of non-Francophones will further aggravate the antediluvian sensibilities of French Quebec, which wishes to have the collapsed birthrate of its post-Catholic hedonistic nirvana while still having the demographic numbers to blackmail the country, it would, again, be sensible to develop a special developmental status with Haiti, to apply particular attention to improving the lot of that benighted country, and to admit increasing numbers of people, without draining Haiti of its productive population.

Thus would French-speakers (albeit none of them likely candidates for the presidency of the Alliance Française or Société du Bon Parler) be enlarged with people not overly concerned with Quebec’s constitutional tractations, but who would reduce Quebec’s paranoia in regard to language and non-French immigration to English-speaking Canada.

Having provided Britain with its first foreign governor of the Bank of England, we should have stand-by authority to raise taxes on elective spending, and eliminate taxes on the proceeds of saving and investment as a first line of defence against inflation, rather than simply following other countries in inducing a bone-cracking recession by raising interest rates every time inflation impends, which is itself inflationary. And, as one of the world’s few remaining hard-currency countries, we should bring back a standard of measurement for currencies; I suggest one-third gold, one-third oil and one-third the basket of consumer indices, but these currencies have to be valued against something other than each other or ultimately, none of them will be worth anything.

I can’t get into the terribly difficult issues involving native people here, but they need fresh thinking more desperately than anyone.

Canada can show the way out of the cul-de-sac of the traditional armed camp of opposing reflex liberals and traditionalists, who between them over-imprison, wear the blinders of universality and monetary inflexibility, and resist original thinking. Why, other than a lack of imagination, are we waiting?
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Sun, is an interesting and sobering, for Conservatives, assessment of Justin Trudeau's threat to the current governing party by occasional Army.ca contributor David Akin:

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/12/01/justin-trudeau-could-win-on-popularity-and-political-street-smarts
Justin Trudeau could win on popularity and political street smarts

BY DAVID AKIN, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU CHIEF

FIRST POSTED: SATURDAY, DECEMBER 01, 2012

ALFRED, ONT. - After following Justin Trudeau's Liberal leadership campaign tour around eastern Ontario Friday, two things stood out.

First, Trudeau's supporters really like to touch him. Their relationship with their candidate is a tactile one. They grab his arm. They hug him. He is the Liberal plush toy.

Second, Trudeau considers the long gun registry to be a dead issue. Should he win the Liberal leadership and should he lead a government he will not be reviving the long gun registry.

That first observation may not come as much of a surprise. His popularity has been taken as a given in this race but the depth or intensity of the enthusiasm Trudeau can command really has to be seen to be believed. It is an unqualified political asset.

Here in Alfred, a tiny Franco-Ontarion community that is just about halfway between Ottawa and Montreal, one woman in her 60s arrived 30 minutes early for a lunchtime chat with Trudeau and promptly announced she couldn't wait to jump up and kiss him.

But that second observation, about Trudeau's comments on the gun registry, says something about the political smarts many of his opponents refuse to acknowledge.

Trudeau was speaking about the registry because he was challenged on it by one of the blue-collar, punch-the-clock guys who works at the helicopter parts factory that Trudeau toured Friday.

Trudeau meandered a bit in his response but he did answer. Though he voted in Parliament to keep the long gun registry, he will not resurrect it. Instead, Trudeau wants to use the gun registry debate to make a point about how the Harper Conservatives used the issue to divide Canadians who, he said, are united in their concern to protect traditional ways of living and reduce gun crime.

His answer is crafted to simultaneously win over the "law-abiding duck hunters" the Conservatives all but own politically as well as the inner-city urban single moms worried about gun crime, a demographic that makes up a healthy portion of Trudeau's own working-class riding of Papineau in Montreal. It might be naïve to think you can win both but at least he's making an intelligent pitch for them.

Trudeau's political opponents dismiss him as all fluff and no substance. After the factory tour in Hawkesbury, a 15-minute drive east of here, Trudeau went to a senior citizens home where a supporter asked what he and his team were going to do to counter attacks that he's a political airhead.

The short answer from Trudeau: Not a thing.

"It's a question I haven't spent a lot of time worrying about," Trudeau replied.

And why should he? He doesn't have to prove he can win. Consider this: In 2007, he won a hard-fought battle to win the Liberal nomination in Papineau. The Liberal establishment was cool, at best, and hostile, at worst, to the idea of Trudeau becoming an MP.

Having secured the nomination, Trudeau then proceeded to knock off a popular incumbent Bloc Quebecois in the 2008 general election. Then, in 2011, when the Orange Wave was sweeping Quebec, the blue-collar, slightly sovereignist Papineau riding should have been the first to jump on Jack Layton's bandwagon. Instead, Trudeau increased his margin of victory while many other Liberals were swamped and defeated.

Notably, Marc Garneau, seen as the best hope to prevent Trudeau from becoming leader, lost in the 2006 general election to a BQ candidate in a suburban Montreal riding that should have been much easier to win than the one Trudeau picked.

After 2006, Garneau inherited Westmount-Ville Marie, a downtown Montreal riding that has been Liberal for just about forever. And he only took that inheritance - unopposed - after threatening to walk out on the Liberals unless they gave him that safe seat.

In the next general election, the Liberals will have to scrap and fight for every seat they can get. There is nothing in the otherwise impressive resume of Garneau to show he can win a tough political fight. But look past the hairdo and the flashy smile, and you'll see a successful political street fighter in Justin Trudeau.


David Akin is neither the first nor the only observer to suggest that M. Trudeau is, for Totes, truly a "wolf in sheep's clothing" capable of outflanking the CPC.

I think Stephen Harper is one of the smartest politicians to have sat in Canada's house of commons for a half century ~ smarter, I hope than the "eye on the prize" teams surrounding both Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau. So, with about 33 months left until Canadians really pay attention to politics and policy what does a rally smart guy do about the potential opposing candidates?

First: get rid of "losers." It's an old card playing strategy. "Losers" for a prime minister consist of both people and policies, and policies involve projects. A 'loser' might be someone like Rob Anders who is popular in his own riding (Calgary West) but who is "offside" on the various directions the PM appears to want to take. Another 'loser' might be a controversial major capital project, like the F-35;

Second: emphasize "proven leadership." Prime Minister Harper has one HUGE strength: Canadians, who don't much "like" him, understand that he is a good manager and that counts for a lot. (Nearly) balancing the budget by 2015 will emphasize that advantage - and we can expect DND to "pay" part of the price ; and

Third: campaign, Campaign, CAMPAIGN! Conservatives appear to understand the madness of the media - its insatiable "need" for something with which to fill the belly of the 24/7 TV news beast. It is better to feed the media monster than to allow it to prowl and eat what it finds. The entire government has to have been in campaign mode ever since 3 May 2011 and the campaign will have to be accelerated in 2013, 2014 and, especially in 2015. Campaigning need not be terribly subtle, the Tories need to focus on defined slices of voters, often in specific regions, who can be pried away from both the Liberals and the NDP on very specific issues.

That's what M. Trudeau is doing TO the Conservatives by supporting the CNOOC/Nexen deal, agreeing on the long gun registry and opposing the Norther Gateway pipeline: all are problematic for specific groups of the Conservative and NDP supporters.
 
This could also go into the Liberal leadership campaign thread, but it is a useful reminder that the CPC (and to a lesser extent the NDP) have all kinds of ammunition at hand to remind voters why voting Liberal isn't a great choice for taxpayers. Deborah Coyne has got that "natural ruling party" thing down to a tee...

http://paulsrants-paulsstuff.blogspot.ca/2012/12/former-liberal-government-hid-more-than.html

" The former Liberal government hid more than $60 million in unexpected costs from Parliament
left no written record of important decisions taken by officials, and may have broken numerous contracting rules in its handling of the controversial gun registry, Auditor General Sheila Fraser has found"

And despite a scathing 2008 REPORT from former AG Sheila Fraser, Liberal leadership candidate Deborah Coyne says no Liberal has to “apologize” for the federal long-gun registry, a political quagmire for the party for more than a decade. Justin Trudeau was right, it was a "failure" Where Trudeau looks the fool is his easily found comments supporting the long-gun registry.

You know, this Liberal leadership race is gonna be tons of fun. Already JT is flip-flopping on long held Liberal ideology, and now Coyne states Liberals have no reason to apologize for missing money, broken rules, and hiding spending from Parliament and by extension all Canadians.

It would appear the LPC needs another drubbing in 2015 in order to finally learn that they need to have actual policies and offer real reasons for Canadians to vote "for" them. Apologies for misspent monies would also be nice to see as well.
 
In the "Never Saw This One Coming" department, apparently at least two senators who are long-time residents of Ottawa have now declared second residences as their primary residences.  Oddly enough, their newfound primary residences are more than 100km from Ottawa, meaning they can now receive thousands of dollars in living expenses for staying in their own homes.

Fortunately, their peers on the Senate board of internal economy have approved this.  As well, it's a good sign of bi-partisan activity, as well-known Liberal Mac Harb and notable Tory Mike Duffy are both now claiming their primary residences are in Pembroke and Charlottetown, respectively.

I'm certain that both a registered to vote at their declared primary residences, and that Senator Duffy has declared PEI as his primary residence for the purposes of income tax.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Senator+Mike+Duffy+claims+living+allowances+despite+being+Ottawa+resident+since+1970s/7648888/story.html

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Senator+Harb+claims+additional+living+expenses+despite+living/7650984/story.html
 
Following on from this rosy prediction about the USA we have more good news for Stephen Harper from an article in the National Post which reports on RBC's view of 2013 and 2014:

"The Royal Bank’s latest quarterly outlook predicts growth will accelerate to 2.4% next year and continue to expand to 2.8% in 2014, following a year that saw the weakest growth since the recession and a virtual stall in the third quarter."

Assuming that Prime Minister Harper can contain the fallout from the F-35 - and see David Bercuson's comment about Canadians not caring about defence spening (beyond, generally, opposing it) - and avoid any real scandals, then a growing economy is the best news he can possibly have.
 
The upside to the F35 issue is that the Torries never actually spent any money on it, so there's little to beat them over the head with when it's done and gone.
 
But the media loves the F-35. It represents a crack in the Conservative veneer of good management. Even the broadly pro Tory media like the National Post take some delight in watching the government twist in the wind on the F-35 issue. The very small handful of journalists - opinion makers in Canada - who don't actively dislike Stephen Harper are focused on Peter MacKay or Chris Alexander, both of whom are thought to be too "moderate" for the tooth and claw conservative right, whatever that is.
 
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