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Europe

Looking forward to strong and independent Europe that does not revert to spheres of influence of France and Germany.

Interesting. How do you see that developing of not France and Germany materially involved?
 
The UK has to make some hard choices about whether they want to realign with Europe or potentially find themselves a wallflower.
UK is trying hard, but nuclear deterrence is nowhere in their wheelhouse.

Next best thing…SOF…
 
Europe finally wakes up from its self-indulgent 30+ year post cold war snooze on the lido deck.

Looking forward to strong and independent Europe that does not revert to spheres of influence of France and Germany.
I too hope The Vikings put the band back together. As long as they don’t start touring.
 
Interesting. How do you see that developing of not France and Germany materially involved?
There's always a possibility that Europe backslides. All that's needed is dissatisfaction among the peasants and a ruling class mostly interested in perpetuating its privileges and powers. Right now it's obvious that some European countries are disinclined to satisfy their median voters.
 
There's always a possibility that Europe backslides. All that's needed is dissatisfaction among the peasants and a ruling class mostly interested in perpetuating its privileges and powers. Right now it's obvious that some European countries are disinclined to satisfy their median voters.
I wasn’t talking about a backslide, I was looking for your thoughts on ‘if not France and Germany, where do you see the root(s) of a “strong and independent” Europe?’
 
I wasn’t talking about a backslide, I was looking for your thoughts on ‘if not France and Germany, where do you see the root(s) of a “strong and independent” Europe?’
I don't see a strong and independent Europe any more than a strong and independent NA, SA, Africa, Asia, or any of the usual subdivisions of the above (eg. south Asia, or southeast Asia). Europe is fundamentally splintered and fractious. The only way I see for it to become less so is by formation of the smaller pieces into larger ones - including some potentially new ones - and that would be messy given the recent tendency of Europe to form more smaller pieces.
 
I agree on the whole, though I think they France is a central driver in that consolidation, for amongst other factors, that it is in very little way of any, if being beholden to American pressure.
 
In a world of precision and autonomy is nuclear weaponry necessary? Especially when even Vlad has found so little utility in his arsenal.
 
There's always a possibility that Europe backslides. All that's needed is dissatisfaction among the peasants and a ruling class mostly interested in perpetuating its privileges and powers. Right now it's obvious that some European countries are disinclined to satisfy their median voters.

Widukind's Saxons and Charlemagne's Franks remain two different people.
 
In a world of precision and autonomy is nuclear weaponry necessary? Especially when even Vlad has found so little utility in his arsenal.
I think the opposite. He has used the threat to keep all the rest of the world in line. To lapse into my childhood for a moment: "Open this door or I will huff and I will puff and I will blow your house up". Almost the perfect weapon.
 
I think the opposite. He has used the threat to keep all the rest of the world in line. To lapse into my childhood for a moment: "Open this door or I will huff and I will puff and I will blow your house up". Almost the perfect weapon.

Fair.

But under those circumstances does anybody actually need a working weapon? Or is a Schroedinger simulacrum sufficient?

Do you just have to cknvince peiple that you have the means to destroy the world?


....

On the practical side I just asked how big a hole that new printed Aussie missile would make on its own. No payload, just the vehicle on its own.

Mach 7
300 kg

Dry soil
8 to 10 meter diameter and 2 m deep

Rock
6 meter diameter
 
Fair.

But under those circumstances does anybody actually need a working weapon? Or is a Schroedinger simulacrum sufficient?

Do you just have to cknvince peiple that you have the means to destroy the world?


....

On the practical side I just asked how big a hole that new printed Aussie missile would make on its own. No payload, just the vehicle on its own.

Mach 7
300 kg

Dry soil
8 to 10 meter diameter and 2 m deep

Rock
6 meter diameter
If you can convince people without actually having it you would sure save a pile of money but someone in the know would get bought off so your advantage wouldn't last long. What is needed is to be able to convince people that you will use it. Jimmy Carter would never have done so regardless of the threat. Ronald Reagan was to my mind the ultimate in Walk Softly but carry a big stick. Putin wouldn't hesitate or at least he has convinced me.
 
Meanwhile, the UK Labour government might reverse Brexit...


Reeves says closer integration with EU is ‘biggest prize’ in Brexit shift

The chancellor’s LSE speech will raise hopes that the government could be persuaded to relook at issues like our relationship with the single market or customs union

Dr Mike Galsworthy, chair of the European Movement UK, said: “It is time now to state the obvious. Let's set a course to join the EU, listening to what the majority of this country's citizens want, to rip red tape away from our businesses, open mobility for talent, inspire our youth, secure our defence and reassert our British-European values.

“The majority of the British public now favour EU membership. The time to start that conversation is long overdue. Imagine what that would do for investment, for the energy of this county, for our sense of purpose. And now look again at how inadequate the concept of 'closer ties' is.”

Shadow chancellor, Sir Mel Stride said: "It's no secret that Reeves and Starmer have wanted to row back on Brexit since day one. "Labour are desperate to blame anyone but themselves for their economic failures. Under increasing pressure from their own soft-left colleagues following the Mandelson scandal, Starmer and Reeves would rather point the finger at Brexit than accept their poor choices have been a disaster for our economy."

 
France is not going to like this... moochers and meddlers are never welcome ;)


From umbrella to uncertainty: Europe and Canada's nuclear deterrence anxiety
Several allies are apparently elbowing each other to shelter under France's arsenal

Normally, it's considered a good thing when the world beats a path to your door.

Maybe not so much when we're talking about nuclear deterrence.

At the very least, it is an ominous sign of the times.

Although little has been said publicly, several Western allies are now apparently elbowing each other to shelter under France's nuclear arsenal.

While the sentiment is more prominent in Europe, it's clear Canada cannot be excluded from the slow-burning crisis of confidence among allies about whether the United States can still be relied upon to live up to its long-standing formal guarantees — through NATO — of nuclear protection.

There is no authoritative official count showing the specific countries that have formally requested a direct nuclear deterrence guarantee from France's nuclear arsenal.

What we do know is Poland and now Germany have quietly acknowledged they're talking with France on nuclear deterrence co-operation.

In a statement on Jan. 29, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged Berlin was in talks with Paris to explore deeper co-operation on deterrence, including the role of French nuclear forces in protecting European allies.

"These talks are in their very early stages," Merz said in Berlin in response to a question on the matter. "We know that we have to make some strategic and military-political decisions here, but again, the time is not yet ripe for that. We are holding strategic talks on this issue with the countries involved."

 
France is not going to like this... moochers and meddlers are never welcome ;)


From umbrella to uncertainty: Europe and Canada's nuclear deterrence anxiety
Several allies are apparently elbowing each other to shelter under France's arsenal

Normally, it's considered a good thing when the world beats a path to your door.

Maybe not so much when we're talking about nuclear deterrence.

At the very least, it is an ominous sign of the times.

Although little has been said publicly, several Western allies are now apparently elbowing each other to shelter under France's nuclear arsenal.

While the sentiment is more prominent in Europe, it's clear Canada cannot be excluded from the slow-burning crisis of confidence among allies about whether the United States can still be relied upon to live up to its long-standing formal guarantees — through NATO — of nuclear protection.

There is no authoritative official count showing the specific countries that have formally requested a direct nuclear deterrence guarantee from France's nuclear arsenal.

What we do know is Poland and now Germany have quietly acknowledged they're talking with France on nuclear deterrence co-operation.

In a statement on Jan. 29, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged Berlin was in talks with Paris to explore deeper co-operation on deterrence, including the role of French nuclear forces in protecting European allies.

"These talks are in their very early stages," Merz said in Berlin in response to a question on the matter. "We know that we have to make some strategic and military-political decisions here, but again, the time is not yet ripe for that. We are holding strategic talks on this issue with the countries involved."

When they are talking about it publicly, then “early stages” are a dot in the rear view mirror.
 
If Rubio and his team are high-fiving great success on their way home from Munich, they are likely to find reason in the months to come to think, “Ahhhh, those belligerent Europeans. How dare they…”

Actually Rubio and his team are off visiting the Slovak Republic and Hungary; both have very pro-Trump leaders and both have been a thorn the EUs and NATOs side due to their pro-Putin/anti-Ukraine positions.
 
Wesley Wark has an interesting piece on UK PM Starmer's speech during the Munich Security Conference and how it contrasts to Carney's Davos speech.

Interesting indeed. A family member living in the UK uses another British leaders name when referring to Starmer and it’s not Churchill…still begins with Ch….
 
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