General Election: Oct 21, 2019

[Good2Golf]

Well the last one was 2 and a half years after harper stepped down.  But the CPC toyed with the idea of doing it in May 2016 which was 7 months.

It will likely be a minority (LPC I think), but depending on the narrowness of the margin, I think that a CPC reset ASAP will result in greater pressure on the new Government.  :2c:

Regards
G2G

 

[Remius]

So a quick side bar on polls.

I've been looking at Eric Grenier's poll tracker and mostly ignore individual polls.

Nanos seems to have the Liberals too far ahead but I would point to this:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/election/how-the-nanos-polls-stacked-up-against-the-final-election-results-1.2618950?cid=ps:localnewscampaign:searchad:ds:Ottawacrawl

I'll be curious to see how close they come this time.

 

[Remius]

It will likely be a minority (LPC I think), but depending on the narrowness of the margin, I think that a CPC reset ASAP will result in greater pressure on the new Government.  :2c:

Regards
G2G

Agreed.  I'm just not 100% sure they can get organised that quick.  I hope they do and it is what they will need to do.

 

[Remius]

Latest polltracker shows the LPC have lost their seat advantage as the Bloc keeps rising.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

This is one tight race to the bottom.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Whether the NDP might want to support a minority LPC government may be beside the point.  The magic number is 170.  Looking at Grenier's poll tracker on CBC just now, the projection for the two combined is only 164.  Add GRN and it's 168.

If the combined weight of NDP + GRN is insufficient and the government is a minority, then either the LPC or CPC allows the other to govern... or the governing party cuts deals with the Bloc, which I predict would be the kiss-of-death for the next election.

 

[brihard]

One disappointing ramifications of the Bloc’s climb is that it may sap the Conservative candidate in Beauce enough to give Bernier his seat. I’m really hoping to see him and his party shut out.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Conservative platform's out as of this afternoon (link to news release -- 103pg PDF of document here), with PBO-estimated program costs of interest around these parts attached.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Conservative platform's out as of this afternoon (link to news release -- 103pg PDF of document here), with PBO-estimated program costs of interest around these parts attached.

Any thoughts on how this might be different from Harper’s platform?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Any thoughts on how this might be different from Harper’s platform?

At the risk of copping out, comparing election-to-election platforms can be tricky because like many plans, platforms rarely fully survive contact with day-to-day politics, the economy, internal & outside events not factored into the platform when it was made, etc., no matter what team jersey's involved.  For example, ask the Ontario NDP about how "provincializing" auto insurance went on their watch.  I look at & share this stuff as just one tile (mixed with media statements, debate content, public statements & party policy/convention  papers) in the mosaic answering the question "what do you think they'll do if they take the wheel?"

One quick & dirty example:  vets.  In 2015, the Team Red book promised "re-establish lifelong pensions", and we've seen where that went - can't afford you right now, sorry.  In 2011, Team Blue's book bragged about passing "the Enhanced New Veterans Charter Act," and we saw where that went - litigation.

For anyone wanting to do a deeper dive, though, here's Team Blue's 2015 platform document, and here's their 2011 platform document.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Any thoughts on how this might be different from Harper’s platform?

Should it be ? 

 

[Retired AF Guy]

One disappointing ramifications of the Bloc’s climb is that it may sap the Conservative candidate in Beauce enough to give Bernier his seat. I’m really hoping to see him and his party shut out.

Interestingly, I was talking with one of my co-workers yesterday and she stated that she was thinking of voting for the PPC. Also stated that many of her friends are thinking about doing the same. And as an aside I'm seeing more PPC party signs here in Kingston than Green Party signs.

 

[ModlrMike]

The National Post, but not the CBC is carrying a story about CBC suing the CPC.

If there was no pubic perception of bias before, there certainly might be now.

*corrected now that the story is up on CBC.

Interesting that they're not allowing comments.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Should it be ?

Did the Liberals used the same cookie-cutter platform before and after 9-11?  Broad strokes and philosophy may not change much from election to election, but ground truth can change a lot between ballots.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The National Post, but not the CBC is carrying a story about CBC suing the CPC.

They are now (~30 minutes before this post) ...

The CBC is taking the Conservative Party of Canada to court for using the broadcaster's footage in an online advertisement.

In a legal application to the Federal Court of Canada, the CBC served notice it wants the Conservative Party of Canada and its executive director, Dustin Van Vugt, to acknowledge the party "engaged in the unauthorized use of copyright-protected material."

The court documents filed Thursday listed The National co-host Rosemary Barton and parliamentary bureau reporter John Paul Tasker as applicants in the filing, along with the CBC.

In a statement Saturday, CBC News General Manager and Editor-In-Chief Jennifer McGuire and General Director of Information Programming for Radio-Canada Luce Julien said the court filing would be amended to remove the names of the journalists as applicants.

"To be clear, CBC/Radio Canada was the driver of this process, not the journalists.  CBC/Radio Canada named and added the journalists to the application because their images and content were used inappropriately.  In order to avoid any confusion about the role of Rosemary Barton and John Paul Tasker we intend to file an amendment to remove their names as applicants when the court opens on Tuesday," the statement said.

CBC-Radio Canada named the journalists in the lawsuit, according to the statement, "because their images and journalism were misused for partisan purposes negatively impacting perceptions of their independence." ...

Statement of claim here (19 pages).
op:

 

[daftandbarmy]

They are now (~30 minutes before this post) ...Statement of claim here (19 pages).
op:

I'm glad they're using our tax dollars to sue a national political party  :sarcasm:

 

[Blackadder1916]

I'm glad they're using our tax dollars to sue a national political party  :sarcasm:

I'm glad they're using our tax dollars to sue a national political party who illegally used copyrighted material  [: no sarcasm]

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm glad they're using our tax dollars to sue a national political party who allegedly illegally used copyrighted material  [: no sarcasm]

TFTFY  [/no sarcasm]

 

[ballz]

Be a real shame if the ad was still circulating.........

https://twitter.com/HoCStaffer/status/1182822717650800645

 

[The Bread Guy]

Interesting case ...

If I was Team Blue's lawyer, I'd say, "since Elections Canada says, 'If a news clip is relatively short and is not a substantial part of the audiovisual work from which it was taken, the broadcast of the news clip in a political ad would not infringe the copyright of the owner of the audiovisual work and would not require the permission of that owner to be broadcast. Accordingly, during the election period, broadcasters are not entitled to refuse to broadcast a political ad containing a news clip that is not a substantial part of the original broadcast,', and the bits of video/audio come from a variety of programs, this doesn't constitute use of a substantial part of ANY original broadcast."

Then again, if the CBC lets its clips be used by Team Red against Team Blue or Team Orange, would they then be labelled the "anyone but Liberal" network (more than they already are)?  Other broadcast material from other outlets also seems to be used in the same video -- wonder if they're lawyering up now?

op:

 

[Remius]

Latest poll tracker has the CPC with the seat advantage for the first time.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

But with billions in cuts in their recently released platform can they keep their lead?