General Election: Oct 21, 2019

[Halifax Tar]

Latest poll tracker has the CPC with the seat advantage for the first time.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

But with billions in cuts in their recently released platform can they keep their lead?

Which cuts do you mean ?

 

[Jarnhamar]

[quote author=Remius]

But with billions in cuts in their recently released platform can they keep their lead?
[/quote]

I read that in the voice of Morgan Freeman.

 

[PuckChaser]

But with billions in cuts in their recently released platform can they keep their lead?

You're right. He's cutting:

Taxes on income under $47K
Carbon Tax
GST on Home Heating
Gov income tax revenues due to Green Home/Green Transit/Volunteer/Child Fitness/Maternity Benefits/Children's Arts
Gov revenues from Small business tax changes/income sprinkling to spouses
Sewage dumping into lakes/rivers by municpalities
Fees to enter national museums
Ability of government to hide by Cabinet Confidence to block RCMP investigations
The cap on privately sponsored refugees
Spending at Asian Infrastructure Bank
Foreign aid to wealthy countries
Corporate bailouts

But I mean, don't let the actual platform: https://cpc-platform.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/CPC_Platform_8.5x11_FINAL_EN_OCT11_web.pdf and the full PBO costing: https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/epc-estimates

 

[Remius]

Which cuts do you mean ?

Highlights are here.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-conservative-platform-unveiled-1.5318850

I read that in the voice of Morgan Freeman.

I said it in his voice. 

 

[ballz]

Interesting that right now it's possible that whoever "wins" the election might have a minority so weak that it may need the support of not one but two other parties.

Right now 338Canada has the Libs/Cons at about 135-136 seats a piece. The Bloc/NDP are 30-32 each. So one major party propped up by a minor party may not be enough.

You very well could see a situation where government is formed by a major party (Lib/Cons) + a minor party (Bloc/NDP) + the rest (Greens/Max Bernier/independents).


This could be a very short-lived government....

 

[daftandbarmy]

Interesting that right now it's possible that whoever "wins" the election might have a minority so weak that it may need the support of not one but two other parties.

Right now 338Canada has the Libs/Cons at about 135-136 seats a piece. The Bloc/NDP are 30-32 each. So one major party propped up by a minor party may not be enough.

You very well could see a situation where government is formed by a major party (Lib/Cons) + a minor party (Bloc/NDP) + the rest (Greens/Max Bernier/independents).


This could be a very short-lived government....

You’ve just described BC. Sadly, the NDP-Green marriage of convenience still limps along after more than a year...

 

[ModlrMike]

I'm not sure I agree with your assessment. The NDP has pretty much ruled out working with anyone. Explicitly the Torries, but implicit in their demands they have also ruled out the Libs. The Bloc is poison to both CPC and Libs. I envision a minority government made up of the two larger parties rather than one including the Bloc or NDP. If the Liberals are foolish enough to court the NDP, then expect more runaway deficits to fund the pharmacare, student debt, etc.

 

[ballz]

I'm not sure I agree with your assessment. The NDP has pretty much ruled out working with anyone. Explicitly the Torries, but implicit in their demands they have also ruled out the Libs. The Bloc is poison to both CPC and Libs. I envision a minority government made up of the two larger parties rather than one including the Bloc or NDP. If the Liberals are foolish enough to court the NDP, then expect more runaway deficits to fund the pharmacare, student debt, etc.

I would expect anything but the Libs and Cons working together but I guess we'll see. In fact if they do, I might have to recuse myself from living in this country anymore. Trudeau is the biggest threat to basic democracy / individual rights I could have ever imagined 4 years ago, if their main opponent starts working with them for political expediency we're ****ed. It will confirm there's not a shred of principle left in Ottawa, and I know we say that all the time, but this is different.

I know the NDP said that, but the Cons and Libs are hardly different at this point, if the NDP can force the Cons to take a tighter approach on the environment the NDP can call it a major victory... and everyone will forget or stop caring within a week that Mr. Singh said he wouldn't work with the Cons.

 

[mariomike]

Individuals interested in retirement, pension and financial support for seniors may find this of interest,

Global News
October 12, 2019

Federal election 2019: What’s in it for seniors?
https://globalnews.ca/news/5989955/federal-election-2019-promises-seniors/
The average 65-year old today is expected to live to age 86, according to Statistics Canada.

That's pretty much on track with the Municipal Retirees Organization Ontario - MROO. ( MROO represents OMERS pensioners. )

 

[Jarnhamar]

[quote author=Remius]
Talking while you type is what actors do

 

[The Bread Guy]

A four-pager from the U.S. Congressional Research Service on the upcoming Canadian election attached - here's the bit on NORAD from "Potential Implications" ...

In 2017, Prime Minister Trudeau and President Trump agreed to modernize and broaden the binational NORAD command, charged with defending U.S. and Canadian airspace and monitoring potential aerospace and maritime threats to North America. The Liberal government also adopted a new defense policythat will increase nominal defense spending by 73% over the next decade to acquire new equipment and capabilities. Nevertheless, it has been slow to modernize Canada’s fleet of aging fighter aircraft, leading some analysts to question whether Canada will be able to meet its NORAD commitments. Conservative leader Scheer has pledged to strengthen U.S.-Canadian defense ties by seeking to join the U.S. ballistic missile defense program and ensuring fighters selected through a new procurement process are interoperable with those of the United States.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

A four-pager from the U.S. Congressional Research Service on the upcoming Canadian election attached - here's the bit on NORAD from "Potential Implications" ...

Pretty good analysis I must say.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I wanted to feel old so I checked out Reddits Canadian politics forums.Pretty interesting to read about how they see Conservatives.

Lots of the posters, I'd say majority, seem to think the Conservatives are going to ban gay marriage, make abortions illegal, cut spending to school and education (with a number thinking post secondary education should be free), ban immigrants from coming into Canada, force the catholic church on everyone and on and on.

It seems like they're so terrified of this image of what the conservatives would do that they would vote for a pineapple to keep the conservatives out.

 

[BeyondTheNow]

I wanted to feel old so I checked out Reddits Canadian politics forums.Pretty interesting to read about how they see Conservatives.

Lots of the posters, I'd say majority, seem to think the Conservatives are going to ban gay marriage, make abortions illegal, cut spending to school and education (with a number thinking post secondary education should be free), ban immigrants from coming into Canada, force the catholic church on everyone and on and on.

It seems like they're so terrified of this image of what the conservatives would do that they would vote for a pineapple to keep the conservatives out.

Wonder where they could possibly be getting such an outrageous idea... :

 

[Jarnhamar]

Do you think the Conservatives plan to ban gay marriage and make abortion illegal?

 

[Haggis]

Do you think the Conservatives plan to ban gay marriage and make abortion illegal?

The short answer is "no".  Scheer has already come out (see what I did there) to state that he will respect the existing laws of the land and will vote against any motions by his MPs to reopen the abortion debate.  He did not, however, explicitly state that he will not allow any Conservative MPs to table motions to reopen the abortion debate or change the legality of gay marriages.

Hardcore Christian fundamentalist "conservatives" in the US have made significant headway in banning gay marriage and making abortion illegal.  Once again the left draws convenient parallels between Canadian and US politics.

Conversely, I'm surprised that the other parties, notably those who are pro-choice,  have not reminded Canadians about the now-defunct Canada Summer Jobs program abortion rights requirement.

 

[BeyondTheNow]

Do you think the Conservatives plan to ban gay marriage and make abortion illegal?

Their “plans” as a collective party don’t really matter in the eyes of some younger voters. Instead, what they see, hear and read from individual candidates is what forms their idea of what direction the party is likely to (try and) take the nation.

If a candidate is openly vocal in a multitude of private and public settings about topics they view as rights and/or privileges for all CDN citizens, and their respective party seemingly supports/upholds their viewpoints without question or condemnation of any kind, then those same voters are essentially automatically going to assume that the party as a whole will be directly in line with the opinions expressed. (And, btw, the same goes for the Liberals et. al.)

Ultimately, many young voters (and some old voters too) aren’t interested in doing thorough and lengthy research on their own. They will form their opinions based solely on the most easily accessible excerpts of information flashed in front of them. And unfortunately, when candidates choose to blur the lines between their personal beliefs vs their party’s ideology and what is in the best interests of all Canadians, then everyone loses.

 

[mariomike]

For what it is worth to the discussion, this Ipsos report of voting intentions caught my eye. 4 October 2019.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Significant-Gender-Gap-in-Voting-Intentions-Among-Younger-Canadians

Females age 18-34:
CPC 24%

Males age 18-34:
CPC 31%

May not determine who gets in.

But, it seems to indicate the CPC has a rather significant gender gap among young Canadian voters.

 

[PuckChaser]

Their “plans” as a collective party don’t really matter in the eyes of some younger voters. Instead, what they see, hear and read from individual candidates is what forms their idea of what direction the party is likely to (try and) take the nation.

If a candidate is openly vocal in a multitude of private and public settings about topics they view as rights and/or privileges for all CDN citizens, and their respective party seemingly supports/upholds their viewpoints without question or condemnation of any kind, then those same voters are essentially automatically going to assume that the party as a whole will be directly in line with the opinions expressed. (And, btw, the same goes for the Liberals et. al.)

Ultimately, many young voters (and some old voters too) aren’t interested in doing thorough and lengthy research on their own. They will form their opinions based solely on the most easily accessible excerpts of information flashed in front of them. And unfortunately, when candidates choose to blur the lines between their personal beliefs vs their party’s ideology and what is in the best interests of all Canadians, then everyone loses.

Or when all you hear in the media is a full court press of evil Conservatives wanting to turn Canada into a Theocracy, then young people believe it.

Fortunately, that theory doesn't hold water when you realize the boogeyman Stephen Harper was in power for 9 years, (2 majorities) and had a Conservative Senate and yet not a single restriction in gay marriage, abortion or forced religion on anyone.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Their “plans” as a collective party don’t really matter in the eyes of some younger voters. Instead, what they see, hear and read from individual candidates is what forms their idea of what direction the party is likely to (try and) take the nation.

Ever insightful, miss Now

Mostly agree with you. No one researches enough anymore, if at all. We collectively read something, believe it, and launch an outraged tirade about it.

When it comes to young voters they seem extremely susceptible to group think and peer pressure these days. Seem to lack critical thinking. Reading it on Facebook or Twitter is a viable source.  I'm not sure how to articulate it very well but there's a zombie like behavior of following 'whats in'. Someone snorts a condom up their nose and guess what, it's trending. Video tape yourself getting out of a moving car and dancing on the road. Stuff like that. All kinds of stupid shit. It's like an overwhelming desire to be noticed or have some kind of impact or affect. The attention span seems to be pretty low and they move on to the next trending thing pretty quick.

The stuff being regurgitated as fact on reddit is crazy, but I guess mission accomplished for whoever is pushing the disinformation.