General Election: Oct 21, 2019

[Blackadder1916]

What would happen, do you suppose, if the Conservatives nominated her for Speaker? The numbers are there for her to be elected (even without the Liberals) and she would be in Trudeau's face, every day.

No, the Speaker should be (usually is) a seasoned parliamentarian who has no personal political agenda (or opinion, or profile) so public that it detracts from carrying out his duties in the chair - the ultimate gray man (John Bercow is an aberration, an entertaining and effective one to be sure, but still an aberration).  In the current Canadian political climate finding someone who has nothing more to offer his party, or no longer has an accepting audience wanting to hear his/her different vision for Canada, but still wants the perks of being at the centre of parliament would be difficult.  Following the sometimes practise of minority governments installing someone from the opposition, the obvious choice would a man with experience - Andrew Sheer.

 

[Remius]

No, the Speaker should be (usually is) a seasoned parliamentarian who has no personal political agenda (or opinion, or profile) so public that it detracts from carrying out his duties in the chair - the ultimate gray man (John Bercow is an aberration, an entertaining and effective one to be sure, but still an aberration).  In the current Canadian political climate finding someone who has nothing more to offer his party, or no longer has an accepting audience wanting to hear his/her different vision for Canada, but still wants the perks of being at the centre of parliament would be difficult.  Following the sometimes practise of minority governments installing someone from the opposition, the obvious choice would a man with experience - Andrew Sheer.

After being the leader of a party and running for PM that is the last person who should be considered.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Things I found noteworthy:

1) Poll aggregation predictions were pretty good.

1a) LPC overperformed and CPC underperformed slightly (relative to polls); NDP badly underperformed.

2) LPC vote efficiency is confirmed. 

2a) People who favour election reform are foolish to believe any LPC promise except one that ends with a proposal designed to retain LPC advantage (eg. ranked voting).

3) "Handmaiden-to-Liberals" strategies are losers for the NDP (Mulcair, Singh). 

3a) Without someone like Jack Layton who understands that the path to NDP government necessarily means crushing the LPC between the NDP and CPC, the NDP will never govern Canada.

4) Scheer isn't good enough, and the CPC platform was too weak.  (Customary wisdom was borne out - an opposition generally can not coast to victory on the scandals and mistakes of the governing party; it must offer something substantial.)

5) PPC didn't have much effect, and hopefully is dead.

6) I expect the Democrats to do their best to trash-talk the US economy into a recession over the next year to weaken the Republicans; if so, Canada will likely be affected; if so, the LPC+NDP get their wish from 2008: to run an economic recovery and apply progressive principles and policies for a change.

 

[stellarpanther]

I heard two people at work today say they had planned to vote CPC but once they got to the polls changed their mind as they didn't trust Scheer. Part of it was that they felt it would be a return to Harper policies.

 

[OldSolduer]

I heard two people at work today say they had planned to vote CPC but once they got to the polls changed their mind as they didn't trust Scheer. Part of it was that they felt it would be a return to Harper policies.

Here in lies the problem: Who was JT running against? A memory of Stephen Harper and not the current leader of the Conservatives.

And in my estimation Harper was a good PM.

 

[Jarnhamar]

[quote author=mariomike]
2019 Canadian federal election

In the popular vote, polls show both parties virtually tied at about 32%.
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/2019-canadian-federal-election-live-updates-and-analysis-on-the-vote/
[/quote]
But if even 1 more person voted for Scheer than Trudeau he won the popular vote and should prime minister, right?

 

[mariomike]

But if even 1 more person voted for Scheer than Trudeau he won the popular vote and should prime minister, right?

I don't think Canadian Politics is the place to argue American politics.

The point I made in American Politics was that 2.9 million votes represents a considerable margin.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

I don't think Canadian Politics is the place to argue American politics.

The point I made in American Politics was that 2.9 million votes represents a considerable margin.

Wow.....only when it suits my purpose

 

[mariomike]

Wow.....only when it suits my purpose

When it's almost 3 million votes ( 2016 ), and ten million ( 2018 ) it's pretty hard to ignore.

2019 Canadian federal election

In the popular vote, polls show both parties virtually tied at about 32%.
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/2019-canadian-federal-election-live-updates-and-analysis-on-the-vote/

But, if you and Jarnhamar want to argue American Politics, perhaps American Politics might be a better forum.

 

[QV]

When it's almost 3 million votes ( 2016 ), and ten million ( 2018 ) it's pretty hard to ignore.

But, if you and Jarnhamar want to argue American Politics, perhaps American Politics might be a better forum.

. 

The CPC received about 250,000 more votes than the LPC... The US is about 10x bigger, so if you factor that number by 10, it is a similar margin.  So not insignificant, as you are alluding

 

[Jarnhamar]

The CPC received about 250,000 more votes than the LPC

Holy macaroni. 250'000 in a country of 37.5 million [where only 62%(?) voted].

I thought maybe they won by 1 or 2 votes.

Sure bet Trudeau is glad he went back on his promise about electoral reform  :nod:

 

[The Bread Guy]

Sure bet Trudeau is glad he went back on his promise about electoral reform  :nod:

That was guaranteed once someone explained to him how much in decreases the odds of any party, including his own, ever getting a majority ever again.

 

[AbdullahD]

We tried and tried already the Reform party was created to bring Western values on the East and we were rejected they made fun of us and belittled us Harper made it for awhile but now any sign of the Conservatives that is influenced by the West is again rejected by the East we’ve done all we can do it’s time to move forward the West East political difference isn’t going to break ever.
Western populism is now for independence and we’ll succeed.

Politics in Canada, Conservatives (Harper) governs for a term or two, then Liberals (Trudeau) govern for a term or two. It goes back and forth a lot. When the CPC are in liberals whine and cry, and vice versa.

Maybe you should take a look at the percentages of people who voted for which parties as a starting point. Then Assume conservatives are the only ones crying about separation, but even then only some conservatives are.

The CPC lost, because we presented an underwhelming leader to the nation. He was not able to mobilize people to vote for him, because he was to blasé. I think politics in Canada are not anywhere near as polarized as you think they are and that 90% of western Canadian's, do not care anywhere near as much as you appear to care. But if I am bored later maybe I'll look at the issue deeper, I just can't see traction for it, to me it just feels like pouting kids.

Abdullah

 

[Altair]

Holy macaroni. 250'000 in a country of 37.5 million [where only 62%(?) voted].

I thought maybe they won by 1 or 2 votes.

Sure bet Trudeau is glad he went back on his promise about electoral reform  :nod:

I don't see how the CPC ever has a path to government again in a proportional representation scenario.

I would imagine the CPC is the most thankful for this.

 

[The Bread Guy]

What would happen, do you suppose, if the Conservatives nominated her for Speaker?

Gold, Jerry - GOLD!  May be one of the few things most folks would agree on, especially with a secret ballot vote.

Stealing that for a meme, bud  ;D

 

[mariomike]

If we are going to argue about the Popular Vote margin in Canadian versus American elections,

2019 Canadian federal election

Popular vote margin

LPC: 33.10% 

CPC: 34.44% 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election

2018 United States elections

Popular vote margin

Democratic +8.6%

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-charts/2018-house-popular-vote-tracker

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Harper was a good leader and PM, but his PMO basically muzzled and denutted his MP, causing them not to respond well to issues in their own ridings. The legislation they wrote was sloppy and poor executed. Far to much control form a small element of the party.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Here in lies the problem: Who was JT running against? A memory of Stephen Harper and not the current leader of the Conservatives.

And in my estimation Harper was a good PM.

Harper was the right PM at the right time.  The World was in severe financial turmoil and we needed a technocrat to steer the chip and keep the bank drafts safe.

Now things are all sunny, unemployment is at a record low, Canadians don't want a party pooper like Harper spoiling all the fun.

 

[brihard]

A couple points are coming to mind.

While the Americans would love our resources, I'm not sure they want to expand to include parts of Canada.  I also don't think the majority of people in those provinces would want to become American.

My other point is that Scheer is just plain negative and filled with hate when he talks.  I'm listening to Jason Kenney speak right now and Lisa Raitt earlier and they both sound like leaders when they talk.  Even Scheers concession speech was negative.  If the CPC ever want to have a chance they need to replace him fast.

Scheer, and specifically his hard social conservative streak, is a large part of why I flinched in the waning hours of the election and ended up not voting conservative. I want him gone. We deserve much better than either of our major parties have given us.

 

[Stoker]

I would say expect to have a leadership review sometime in 2020 with Rosa Ambrose or Peter Mackay becoming leader.