General Election: Oct 21, 2019

[garb811]

In light of the PM's announcement he would not be seeking to form a coalition government post election, the Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ?? thread has been established for discussions related to the new minority Liberal Government.

 

[PuckChaser]

Hence my point on % of vote by population densities. National Popular Vote is the political equivalent of +/- in hockey, it's a useless statistic.

+/- in hockey isn't useless, unless its used in isolation. Much like national popular vote, its an indicator you have to combine it with other metrics to make it useful in finding trends.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

+/- in hockey isn't useless, unless its used in isolation. Much like national popular vote, its an indicator you have to combine it with other metrics to make it useful in finding trends.

Which is exactly why +/- is mostly useless because almost no one ever combines it with more in depth statistical analysis taking in to account other factors like Shot %, Time on Ice, etc. 

Alexander Ovechkin had the worst +/- in the League in 2014, I don't think anyone says Alexander Ovechkin is a bad hockey player or they wouldn't want Alexander Ovechkin on their team because of his poor +/-.

It's the same with the continuous trumpeting of "Popular Vote" in our media and by certain political parties/pundits.  It's a useless statistic when framed in isolation, which 99.9% of the time, it is.

 

[Halifax Tar]

So why bring it up then? Or mention that it is interesting?  I don't think it's interesting at all and it literally has zero bearing on the election.

There is nothing wrong with our Electoral System, in fact, it is working exactly how it has been designed to work AKA "keep a loose Confederation of Independent States, with fundamentally different values, together." 

If anything, the Bloc Quebecois are a great example of how a small Regional Party can use the system we have to their advantage to push their agenda forward and derive maximum benefit.  They've even once formed the official opposition despite running candidates in ONE PROVINCE! 

The Green Party and NDP both waste boatloads of money, manpower & resources trying to campaign nationally when they have no real National support.  Real Green Party support is concentrated on Vancouver Island and in small cantons in the Maritimes.  I would make the argument that campaigning nationally wastes very precious dollars & resources for the Green Party.

If war is politics by other means, why not inverse that and say politics is war by other means?  With this in mind, apply military principles to the conduct of a political campaign, namely:

• Selection and maintenance of the aim;
• maintenance of morale;
• offensive action;
• surprise;
• security;
• concentration of force;
• economy of effort;
• flexibility;
• co-operation; and
• administration.

I've read that the NDP Electoral Machine is pretty well known for being a disorganized bag of hammers and I can't imagine the Green Party being much better, perhaps they need to fix that and work on applying some of these principles to make the system work for them and not the other way around?

Or they can continue to whinge about how unfair everything is and then they finally squeeze a few extra seats out of an "Improved" Proportional Representation system (which would do them no good because they still don't have widespread support and would still be a disorganized bags of hammers).  On the flip side, Mad Max would surely love Proportional Representation because he would also get some love in the HoC.  Just what we need, extremists from all ends coming to start their own political movements grabbing hold of that 1 or 2% of the vote they would be able to gather up. 

On the bright side, I wouldn't need to watch Youtube anymore to get my daily dose of Antifa vs Proud Boys, I could merely flip on CPAC!

We have fundamentally different opinions on how well our electoral systems is working and whether or not is being taken advantage of by region parties, aka the Bloc.

Either way when 7.7% of the vote gets that much representation and 15.9% get so little, something needs to change. 

Just for transparency I am a card carrying Conservative who sees this election as a minor victory for us.  But I believe in country before party allegiance and the country needs better representation.

 

[QV]

Which is exactly why +/- is mostly useless because almost no one ever combines it with more in depth statistical analysis taking in to account other factors like Shot %, Time on Ice, etc. 

Alexander Ovechkin had the worst +/- in the League in 2014, I don't think anyone says Alexander Ovechkin is a bad hockey player or they wouldn't want Alexander Ovechkin on their team because of his poor +/-.

It's the same with the continuous trumpeting of "Popular Vote" in our media and by certain political parties/pundits.  It's a useless statistic when framed in isolation, which 99.9% of the time, it is.

I think you are over complicating what the popular vote means, and +/- in hockey is a poor analogy, imo.  The raw vote is a useful metric in its isolation, it tells you more people voted for the CPC than the LCP for example.  Granted that's not how we elect our representatives, but it gives a clearer picture on a broader sentiment.  Seat count skews that. 

The biggest problem we have with our system is unequal representation.  When the Atlantic region has the same number of seats as Prairie region with only half the population - we have a big problem.  And it's not just Atlantic.   

 

[PPCLI Guy]

‘Conservatives’, for whatever those are these days, are doomed until a more moderate ‘fiscally conservative, socially progressive’ tone is championed.

G2G

Makes you miss the Martin (and Chretien) Liberals.....

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I think you are over complicating what the popular vote means, and +/- in hockey is a poor analogy, imo.  The raw vote is a useful metric in its isolation, it tells you more people voted for the CPC than the LCP for example.  Granted that's not how we elect our representatives, but it gives a clearer picture on a broader sentiment.  Seat count skews that. 

The biggest problem we have with our system is unequal representation.  When the Atlantic region has the same number of seats as Prairie region with only half the population - we have a big problem.  And it's not just Atlantic. 

I am really not overcomplicating anything.  I am merely pointing out the Popular Vote is a useless metric in a Nation as geographically large as Canada because it is used as a way to pretend that certain political parties have national appeal when the reality is they don't.  And besides the Big 2, none of the other parties have any sort of widespread appeal outside of very small areas.  Our political system is an acknowledgement that we are a Country of Regions with vastly different values and interests.  The party at the Federal level that will be most successful is the party that achieves broadest consensus across groups of people with radically different values.  The Liberals have been the Party that has most consistently done that.

Our political system is a strength, not a weakness.  It protects us from extremists and fringe groups having outsized voices.  When I look at Politicians like Elizabeth May and Maxime Bernier, I see individuals that would probably be better suited to Municipal and Provincial Politics.  They are the literal embodiment of "All Politics is Local" and are totally out of their depth at the Federal level.  Try and picture either one of them conducting high level statecraft with other World Leaders and it is absolutely laughable.

Makes you miss the Martin (and Chretien) Liberals.....

Paul Martin was a very good Finance Minister and had an unfortunate time as Prime Minister.  I feel like we really didn't get the best he had to offer, due to events that were largely not his doing.

 

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Either way when 7.7% of the vote gets that much representation and 15.9% get so little, something needs to change. 

FFS.  Can we please bury the "Bloc got so many seats for so little national share of popular vote blah blah blah" bullshit.  The only meaningful way to measure a party's vote efficiency is to measure its vote count where it runs candidates.

The NDP's problem isn't that it doesn't get enough seats for the vote share it manages to capture; the NDP's problem is that it doesn't provide a philosophy of governance appealing to more than 1/6th to 1/5th of Canadians AND that most of the party establishment is too chickenshit to fight the Liberals ruthlessly enough to become the left-side alternative to the Conservatives.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

>Either way when 7.7% of the vote gets that much representation and 15.9% get so little, something needs to change. 

FFS.  Can we please bury the "Bloc got so many seats for so little national share of popular vote blah blah blah" bullshit.  The only meaningful way to measure a party's vote efficiency is to measure its vote count where it runs candidates.

The NDP's problem isn't that it doesn't get enough seats for the vote share it manages to capture; the NDP's problem is that it doesn't provide a philosophy of governance appealing to more than 1/6th to 1/5th of Canadians AND that most of the party establishment is too chickenshit to fight the Liberals ruthlessly enough to become the left-side alternative to the Conservatives.

Exactly what I said above.  That 1/5 to 1/6 is also densely concentrated in a very small geographic area.  Again, they have no National appeal.

The Bloc are a very clever solution to give Quebec an outsized voice in the HoC.  It's also using the FPTP system to its maximum advantage. If only other parts of Canada were as organized and creative as Quebecers are. The West is finally starting to get how to play the game with #Wexit. 

 

[stellarpanther]

I know there is a lot of analyses going on as to why the CPC lost and some of it may be true however, I think pure and simlple that they were too negative and a lot of people don't like that.  My dad told me earlier today that him and 2 of my uncles voted independent for the first time ever even though they have all been voting Conservative most of their lives but this time just couldn't bring themselves to vote CPC because they couldn't stand how negative they were.  He also told me that they're even more comfortable after listening to Scheer speak after losing.  In my dad's riding the Liberals only won by a small margin.

 

[Furniture]

I know there is a lot of analyses going on as to why the CPC lost and some of it may be true however, I think pure and simlple that they were too negative and a lot of people don't like that.  My dad told me earlier today that him and 2 of my uncles voted independent for the first time ever even though they have all been voting Conservative most of their lives but this time just couldn't bring themselves to vote CPC because they couldn't stand how negative they were.  He also told me that they're even more comfortable after listening to Scheer speak after losing.  In my dad's riding the Liberals only won by a small margin.

This is one of the three following scenarios.

1) This is a made up story.

2) Your father and his brothers paid no attention to anything the LPC did that was negative, because they are "dyed in the wool" Liberals and ignored that the LPC went negative prior to the writ being dropped.

3) Your father and his brothers were in comas throughout the entire campaign.

 

[Jarnhamar]

This is one of the three following scenarios.

1) This is a made up story.

Yea I kinda got that impression too.

I heard two people at work today say they had planned to vote CPC but once they got to the polls changed their mind as they didn't trust Scheer.

My other point is that Scheer is just plain negative and filled with hate when he talks.

I think pure and simlple that they were too negative and a lot of people don't like that.  My dad told me earlier today that him and 2 of my uncles voted independent for the first time ever even though they have all been voting Conservative most of their lives but this time just couldn't bring themselves to vote CPC because they couldn't stand how negative they were.

:

 

[ballz]

I'm pretty sure stellarpanther is the Master Troll and is just having a laugh at all of our expense.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

So one thing that I find interesting about the push for proportional representation.  Does the Green Party or NDP actually aspire to govern?  Or do they merely wish to remain "special interest" parties.  It's fairly clear that while proportional representation would give both a bigger voice than they presently have, it's tough to imagine them ever actually forming a Government in those conditions. The NDP were very close a few years ago but as was already said, they are too chickenshit to really challenge the Liberals.

I also feel that the Party that would benefit the least from such a system would be the Liberal Party of Canada.  In a proportional representation system, I could see that political party splintering and the Conservatives growing a lot stronger.  People crave stability, it's only natural, and the party that offers the most stability is the Conservative Party of Canada.

 

[PuckChaser]

I also feel that the Party that would benefit the least from such a system would be the Liberal Party of Canada.  In a proportional representation system, I could see that political party splintering and the Conservatives growing a lot stronger.  People crave stability, it's only natural, and the party that offers the most stability is the Conservative Party of Canada.

Liberals are going to steer well clear of electoral reform now as FPTP is the reason they're still in power even if that power is held on by a thread.

Only thing that a change to PR or Ranked Ballots does is force us into perpetual minority governments.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I'm pretty sure stellarpanther is the Master Troll and is just having a laugh at all of our expense.

It is clear that the poster is speaking of his opinion, and that of others.  Having an opinion different than yours does not a troll make.  The negative response from other posters does however seem to confirm his opinion of conservatives....

 

[mariomike]

I'm pretty sure stellarpanther is the Master Troll and is just having a laugh at all of our expense.

Having an opinion different than yours does not a troll make.

For reference,

• Trolling: Making a deliberately offensive or provocative post, where the primary aim is upsetting someone or eliciting an emotional response from them.

 

[Remius]

It is clear that the poster is speaking of his opinion, and that of others.  Having an opinion different than yours does not a troll make.  The negative response from other posters does however seem to confirm his opinion of conservatives....

Concur.  I didn’t see any trolling.  The anecdotes are actually similar to some of mine.  Some people were conflicted and I fail to see how anyone can not understand why some voters chose to vote the way they did.  Some protest voted other voted for the best riding rep in their opinion.  My father in his riding voted CPC.  Not because he likes them, quite the opposite but he really likes the MP. 

Plenty of people I work with in the PS chose not to vote CPC at the 11th hour because  of their platform plan for the PS.  Reading between the lines it was obviously DRAP 2.0.  This from the group of people who brought us Phoenix, SSC and DRAP 1.0.

Stellar panther was just imparting his/her experience.  If people don’t like that then maybe they should listen a bit more and maybe they can win the next time.

 

[CountDC]

I don't see a reason to doubt his posts.  I didn't decide until I was looking down at the ballot with pencil in hand who to vote for even though I had expected to vote conservative.  When the time came though, I thought about it and just couldn't cast that vote so went instead with plan b.  It just didn't feel right when I held the pencil over the conservative spot. 

 

[Jarnhamar]

[quote author=Remius] .  If people don’t like that then maybe they should listen a bit more and maybe they can win the next time.
[/quote]

Paraphrasing- if Conservatives were better listeners they would have won the election?