Global decrease in population

[Colin Parkinson]

The one child created known issues, but from my reading, the missing population is the result of multiple layers of government each padding their population figures to gain funds, authority, etc. Seem like the village chief adds 1-2, district chief adds another 3-4, Canton adds few more, then the next level and next level....

There are roughly 600,000 villages in China

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The one child created known issues, but from my reading, the missing population is the result of multiple layers of government each padding their population figures to gain funds, authority, etc. Seem like the village chief adds 1-2, district chief adds another 3-4, Canton adds few more, then the next level and next level....

There are roughly 600,000 villages in China

That is what I read. It starts with village schools creating fake students (they are paid by the student) and continues all the way up as each district and so on up add padding to get their share of the loot.

 

[CBH99]

Or are they going to continue to slow our transition from manual labour to automation?

Slowing our transition to automation is a good thing. A very good thing. (Imo)

We have to find a balance between increasing productivity, which means increasing automation - and not automating ourselves out of jobs on mass

 

[daftandbarmy]

Slowing our transition to automation is a good thing. A very good thing. (Imo)

We have to find a balance between increasing productivity, which means increasing automation - and not automating ourselves out of jobs on mass

We'd better do something...

Canada’s productivity crisis just got worse with biggest plunge in three years​

Canada’s productivity crisis just got worse with biggest plunge in three years

Canada’s productivity crisis worsened in the second quarter, with labour productivity dropping by 1%, Statistics Canada said. Read on

financialpost.com

 

[ytz]

Our productivity is terrible because we rely on unproductive sectors like real estate. Something like a sixth of jobs in Canada are FIRE sectors (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate including construction). That's not good for productivity. It's just a circle jerk of selling each other ever inflating real estate.

The resource sector is actually plateauing on productivity. New mines and oilfields are more productive than older ones. And we ship a lot of unprocessed resources.

Then there's the lack of automation across a lot of everyday activities. For example, in stone grocery chains in Europe you get a handheld scanner as you enter. You tag and bag as you shop and then get your bill as you dock the scanner on the way out.

We do have some good innovations. Interac, for example, is substantially better than the mess of payment systems in the US.

 

[Czech_pivo]

China just discovered they are missing 400 million people that they thought they had, but appears to be corruption related population inflation.

Between the years of 2025 to 2028 India will add more people to their population than our entire country. Let that sink in.

My no longer having a plastic straw with my drink at the bar is really going to make a difference.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

OECD countries are probably irreversible at this point. Gerontocratic policies strongly favour seniors over children. And there's no outlook where that changes. We see this in Canada where child benefits phase out at ~$40k family income and OAS phases out at ~$90k individual income. Or look at more young people moving in to condos while those condos themselves are shrinking. Average condo/apartment size has shrunk 35% since the 60s, in Canada, as per housing expert Mike Moffat.

This was famously from Harper's economic advisor, Sean Speer. Lest anybody think this is lefty liberal nonsense:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/corridors/2021/05/19/the-politics-of-gerontocracy-in-canada-795394

Here's a simple way to look at it. What is the marginal cost of having a child? To do that, work out how much adding one more bedroom would cost. In most cities in Canada, that means $75-100k more. That's $400-550 on the mortgage. But then there's daycare, RESPs, food, clothes, healthcare, summer camp. $1500/mo of post-tax income is a conservative estimate. That's $25k before taxes. Basically, no couple can comfortably have a child without a six figure income. And probably need family incomes in the top 10% to have two kids.

My brother and I are doing our part! My brother has 2 kids with a 3rd on the way. I have a child and my wife and I want to have two more children.

None of my cousins and also almost none of my friends have any children. I have 5 cousins on my Father's side of our family, they are all women in their late 20s/mid 30s and none of them have kids. It actually makes my Aunts and Uncles a bit sad I believe at family gatherings as they have no grandchildren to see.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We'd better do something...

Canada’s productivity crisis just got worse with biggest plunge in three years​

View attachment 95991

Canada’s productivity crisis just got worse with biggest plunge in three years

Canada’s productivity crisis worsened in the second quarter, with labour productivity dropping by 1%, Statistics Canada said. Read on

financialpost.com

Tariff impacts? Alot of manufacturing has been working reduced hours in Q2 and Q3.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Between the years of 2025 to 2028 India will add more people to their population than our entire country. Let that sink in.

My no longer having a plastic straw with my drink at the bar is really going to make a difference.

 

[Kirkhill]

We don't need workers. Catch up.

We don't have sailors or workers for the same reason. We don't have kids.

And we have been told since 1972 that kids are bad for the planet and we believed t he bullshit and now we are here.

Deal with it.


“I can take you to factories [in China] now, where you’ll basically be alongside a big conveyor and the machines come out of the floor and begin to assemble parts,” he says.

“And you’re walking alongside this conveyor, and after about 800, 900 metres, a truck drives out. There are no people – everything is robotic.”

....

“We visited a dark factory producing some astronomical number of mobile phones,” recalls Greg Jackson, the boss of British energy supplier Octopus.

“The process was so heavily automated that there were no workers on the manufacturing side, just a small number who were there to ensure the plant was working.

....

Western executives who visit China are coming back terrified

Robotics has catapulted Beijing into a dominant position in many industries

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Brad Sallows]

I just told you that India is below TFR. What overregulation problem do they have?

India is notorious for its strangulatory regulatory regime.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Slowing our transition to automation is a good thing. A very good thing. (Imo)

It is a terrible thing.

We have to find a balance between increasing productivity, which means increasing automation - and not automating ourselves out of jobs on mass

Search a few results like "people living on farms" or "people working in agriculture" for 1800, 1900, 2000. Look at all those people who must be out of jobs. Where did they go?

Automation is a major part of how workers' time is shifted from lower-value uses to higher-value uses, which is essentially how wealth is created.

 

[Maxman1]

I thought you were killed by Polluticorn.

 

[ytz]

Slowing our transition to automation is a good thing. A very good thing. (Imo)

We have to find a balance between increasing productivity, which means increasing automation - and not automating ourselves out of jobs on mass

I don't think you understand economics if you believe this.

Why would anybody who is working on AI slow down? Do you understand the advantage that accrues to any person, corporation or country that gets a lead on AI?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It is a terrible thing.

Search a few results like "people living on farms" or "people working in agriculture" for 1800, 1900, 2000. Look at all those people who must be out of jobs. Where did they go?

Automation is a major part of how workers' time is shifted from lower-value uses to higher-value uses, which is essentially how wealth is created.

When there was new jobs being created at the same time, that did not require a 4 year course to get.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

New Zealand is not doing all that well either. I blame the gun laws......(Seriously any government that does what they did is likley really stupid on many levels)

https://www.news.com.au/travel/destinations/new-zealand/deeply-concerning-new-zealands-population-exodus/news-story/2395381bbe57f37ce66cea3515d21a46

 

[Dana381]

My brother and I are doing our part! My brother has 2 kids with a 3rd on the way. I have a child and my wife and I want to have two more children.

None of my cousins and also almost none of my friends have any children. I have 5 cousins on my Father's side of our family, they are all women in their late 20s/mid 30s and none of them have kids. It actually makes my Aunts and Uncles a bit sad I believe at family gatherings as they have no grandchildren to see.

Like you we did our part, My wife and I have 8 children. However our collective 4 siblings have 0. So 4 grandparents had 6 children who had 8 grandchildren. If you include my wife's birth family its flat at 8,8,8 Her two biological siblings have no children either.

We know many large families with 4 or more children. Most homeschool like we do, Most are also 1 income families like us. We don't live in poverty, We actually live better than either of us did as children. I am a self employed mobile diesel mechanic, many large families fathers we know are trades people or farmers.

Raising children is expensive but managing expectations is important. Peoples ideas of what is required to raise children has steadily increased over the years. Many people spend their best time at work letting someone else raise their children so they can provide them with cool stuff. Children really want quality time with you more than anything. By the time people get home from work they have no energy left to give their children.

When my wife and I were engaged we spoke to many people about family size including some with large families. No matter how poor they were while raising their children NOT ONE regretted having a large family, However many wished they had had more children.

 

[Brad Sallows]

When there was new jobs being created at the same time, that did not require a 4 year course to get.

Aaaaand....the Nobel Prize in Economics goes for work on "creative destruction".

 

[Kirkhill]

Aaaaand....the Nobel Prize in Economics goes for work on "creative destruction".

Those who cannot work, manage.

 

[Navy_Pete]

When there was new jobs being created at the same time, that did not require a 4 year course to get.

Sure, just a practical apprenticeship that started when they were kids. When you look at standard times for medieval trades they spent a really long time before they were journeymen, and it's really no different now, just formalized at schools instead of learning from your famliy.

Modern farming also has a ton of agricultural science behind it, and really nothing wrong about 2,3 or 4 year programs for people to get standardized learning along with advances in the field.

If you've ever had a shitty mentor there are a lot of downsides to all OJT as well, and it's a lot harder to unlearn bad habits or things that are just wrong than get it right the first time.