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Hybrid Electric Vehicles

I replace major appliances roughly every 30 to 40 years. What is the lifetime of a solar panel in Canada?

You must not have purchased any appliances in the last 15 - 20 years. Sales staff openly say they don't expect most appliances to last more than 7-10 years. Ironically, PV panels are virtually guaranteed to last longer than any appliance in your home.
 
But hydrogen isn’t part of the future, right?

It is part of the future. Just not for personal transportation. The market has spoken on that one. A huge part of the reason Japanese automakers are struggling is because their government pushed their auto sector to bet on hydrogen and it never panned out. Unfortunately for them, nobody really got behind building the infrastructure to really distribute hydrogen. Meanwhile, you can charge an EV off a 110V outlet. It'll be slow and take all night to cover your commute. But it can be done. This makes charging an EV infinitely easier than filling up a hydrogen vehicle.

Hydrogen will probably end up being used by rail, long haul trucking, shipping, etc. Sectors where infrastructure investment is minimized by requiring far fewer fueling stations.
 
It is part of the future. Just not for personal transportation. The market has spoken on that one. A huge part of the reason Japanese automakers are struggling is because their government pushed their auto sector to bet on hydrogen and it never panned out. Unfortunately for them, nobody really got behind building the infrastructure to really distribute hydrogen. Meanwhile, you can charge an EV off a 110V outlet. It'll be slow and take all night to cover your commute. But it can be done. This makes charging an EV infinitely easier than filling up a hydrogen vehicle.

Hydrogen will probably end up being used by rail, long haul trucking, shipping, etc. Sectors where infrastructure investment is minimized by requiring far fewer fueling stations.
hydrogen certainly looks like a big loser right now transportation wise
 
Most reputable panel suppliers warranty their product for a period of 25 years, which means they will still produce 80% of the initial capacity in year 25. They don't need to be scrapped after that, it then just becomes a game of diminishing returns.
some are becoming net storage batteries
 

The electricity RRO commodity is currently 21 to 22 times more expensive than natural gas in Alberta!​


Based on the Utilities Consumer Advocate (UCA) 12-month average, from October 2023 to September 2024, the cost of electricity was 21 to 22 times more expensive than natural gas in Alberta: the average Regulated Rate for natural gas was $1.94/GJ or 0.70ȼ/kWh and the average Regulated Rate for electricity was 15.34ȼ/kWh.


1736984037184.png

Electrical Power Output: 1 kW, 60 Hz, 120 vAC

Thermal Output: 6.5 kW (22,178 BTU)

Fuel Type: Natural Gas, Propane

Fuel Consumption: 26 cubic feet/hour (natural gas)

Overall Efficiency: 95%

On-Grid power generation

Microgen Stirling Engine Lifetime
: 50,000 hours

...

Now talk to me about E-Bikes and Go-Karts along with my gasoline powered Jeep.
 




View attachment 90510

Electrical Power Output: 1 kW, 60 Hz, 120 vAC

Thermal Output: 6.5 kW (22,178 BTU)

Fuel Type: Natural Gas, Propane

Fuel Consumption: 26 cubic feet/hour (natural gas)

Overall Efficiency: 95%

On-Grid power generation

Microgen Stirling Engine Lifetime
: 50,000 hours

...

Now talk to me about E-Bikes and Go-Karts along with my gasoline powered Jeep.
That's a 5 year lifespan running 24/7
 
It is part of the future. Just not for personal transportation. The market has spoken on that one.

The future 10-15+ year market has spoken? I missed that, my Tardis was down for repairs.

A huge part of the reason Japanese automakers are struggling is because their government pushed their auto sector to bet on hydrogen and it never panned out. Unfortunately for them, nobody really got behind building the infrastructure to really distribute hydrogen.

But government mandating EV while ignoring electrical infrastructure is a winning proposition?

Meanwhile, you can charge an EV off a 110V outlet. It'll be slow and take all night to cover your commute. But it can be done. This makes charging an EV infinitely easier than filling up a hydrogen vehicle.

Yeah, this lady sure had a challenge filling her H2 car.

Hydrogen will probably end up being used by rail, long haul trucking, shipping, etc. Sectors where infrastructure investment is minimized by requiring far fewer fueling stations.

Haven’t seen anyone ever tally up a cost for all the Fast DC chargers across the world…

hydrogen certainly looks like a big loser right now transportation wise
Are you able to translate that from Trump-ese to English for us? How big is big? What are the key performance indicators for loss?

Interesting to see folks tear into existing ICE and say that EV is the way of the future, but so quick to tear into post-EV future technology on the basis that existing chemical storage EV technology will be the be all to end all for personal transportation. Chemical-storage EVs will be the future’s ICE-like pariah.
 
The future 10-15+ year market has spoken? I missed that, my Tardis was down for repairs.



But government mandating EV while ignoring electrical infrastructure is a winning proposition?



Yeah, this lady sure had a challenge filling her H2 car.



Haven’t seen anyone ever tally up a cost for all the Fast DC chargers across the world…


Are you able to translate that from Trump-ese to English for us? How big is big? What are the key performance indicators for loss?

Interesting to see folks tear into existing ICE and say that EV is the way of the future, but so quick to tear into post-EV future technology on the basis that existing chemical storage EV technology will be the be all to end all for personal transportation. Chemical-storage EVs will be the future’s ICE-like pariah.
how many hydrogen powered cars on the market today? How many were on the market 5 years ago? How many are planned for 5 yrs from now?
Doesnt seem that controversial a statement to say that battery powered vehicles look to be more successful right now than hydrogen of course they were in this position once before
 
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how many hydrogen powered cars on the market today? How many were on the market 5 years ago? How many are planned for 5 yrs from now?
Doesnt seem that controversial a statement to say that battery powered vehicles look to be more successful right now than hydrogen of course they were in this position once before

Is that your definition of a “big loser?”
 
its a big loser right now it was a big loser for Toyota IMO.

Maybe in 50 yrs we'll all be driving hydrogen cars?
The difference is that 50 years ago, EVs sucked compared to ICE vehicles…sucked a lot!

IMG_5579.jpegIMG_5578.jpeg


Today, HEVs/FCEVs look the same and have the same performance as BEVs/PHEVs. The infrastructure will come a lot sooner than 50 years.
1736991559069.jpeg1736991526604.jpeg
 
The tech is developing. Adoption is growing. The rates will fluctuate. But the direction is clear. And companies that can't innovate on this front won't survive. Look at Nissan and Honda merging. This is in no small part because of their loss of market share in China to EVs. And now the threat those same EVs displace them in other markets. There will be many more legacy brands consolidating over the next 5-10 years.
People aren't buying Chinese EVs because they are better than Nissan and Honda, they are buying them because they are being sold dirt cheap.

The Chinese are dumping state funded EVs into the rest of the world to A) Keep their workers at home busy; and B) Undercut the Asian, European, and North American industrial base.

The allies won WWII because they had more men and more industrial capacity. China saw that and reeled in the lesson. In the West we forgot that lesson, and sold our industry to China for cheap goods in Walmart, Target, and Amazon. Now Europe is selling it's automotive industry to China for cheap EVs so the urban "environmentalists" can feel warm and fussy inside.
 
The future 10-15+ year market has spoken?

Yes.

I told you before. I'll gladly make this bet. Let's figure out an escrow and make this happen, if you're that confident.

My confidence on this comes from two places:

1) Hydrogen has such a low market share that it could keep doubling every year for the next decade and it won't catch EVs. Hydrogen vehicle sales have actually declined globally as EVs gain marketshare. The world now sells 100x more sex toys than hydrogen cars.

2) Nobody is seriously investing in hydrogen refueling infrastructure at scale. There's small projects here and there. But nothing close to the kind of fast charging networks being built.

Even the Japanese are starting to give up hope on Hydrogen and pivoting to making EVs so they can save their auto sector and their auto export dependent economy.

Maybe somebody will randomly decide to drop hundreds of billions of dollars on hydrogen infrastructure globally and then billions more to convince automakers in the next few years. But when even the oil companies are building EV charging stations I am confident in calling this one settled.
 
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The Chinese are dumping state funded EVs

Who knew the Chinese economy was so strong they could subsidize millions in auto exports for years on end. If they have that kind of cash, I guess the US isn't competitive anymore......

Or, and hear me out, they subsidized the development of the sector that has given them a solid base of IP. And they have a bunch of advantages for manufacturing including lax environmental standards, cheap labour and streamlined bureaucracy that enable them to leverage that previously subsidized IP to success.

You can always link to credible economic analysis that shows how these vehicles are subsidized. Hint: no subsidy comes close to making up the gap between them and legacy Western auto.
 
how many hydrogen powered cars on the market today? How many were on the market 5 years ago? How many are planned for 5 yrs from now?
Doesnt seem that controversial a statement to say that battery powered vehicles look to be more successful right now than hydrogen of course they were in this position once before

Yeah. He wants to be all edgy contrarian. But sales are actually falling. It's been an absolute failure and disaster for Toyota:


It's at the point where Toyota is practically giving away fuel cell cars:


Look at how it gets savaged by car reviewers on just the basics like space:


When we're at the point, where there are 100 dildos sold for every hydrogen car globally, I think we can safely say the market has decided.
 
Yes.

I told you before. I'll gladly make this bet. Let's figure out an escrow and make this happen, if you're that confident.

So to make sure I understand your position, you are saying that “the market has spoken” and that in 10-15+ years, there will be no hydrogen powered personal vehicles?
 
Trump's world now...


Chris Wright, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to head the Energy Department, said he’ll reverse Biden administration policies that stymied energy growth and will “restore our energy dominance at home and abroad.”

Liquefied natural gas production and usage of nuclear power will be central to Mr. Wright’s plans to increase energy production to lower consumer costs, improve grid stability and protect national security, Mr. Wright told lawmakers at his confirmation hearing Wednesday.

“Previous administrations have viewed energy as a liability, instead of the immense national asset that it is,” he told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

The former fracking company CEO and industry pioneer was selected by Mr. Trump to restore and expand production of oil and natural gas, which the president-elect calls liquid gold.

Mr. Wright, 59, is on track to easily win confirmation in the GOP-led Senate and is poised to take the helm at the Energy Department that for the past four years has been committed to ending the use of fossil fuels even as U.S. and world energy demands are increasing.

Mr. Wright called for removing red tape and eliminating federal policies that stop or delay energy projects, new moves that he said will ultimately lower costs and secure grid stability.

“We must build things in America again and remove barriers to progress,” he said.

His testimony was interrupted several times by protesters who blamed the massive fires burning in Los Angeles on fossil fuels and fracking. The demonstrators were removed by police.

Democrats objected to the hearing, arguing Mr. Wright’s ethics and legal documents arrived only a day earlier.

Mr. Wright is expected to enforce Mr. Trump’s Day 1 plan to end the Biden administration’s ban on some liquefied natural gas. The incoming secretary is also expected to promote an all-of-the-above energy policy that includes renewables, but flips the Biden policy of putting renewables first.

Mr. Trump chimed in as Mr. Wright answered questions on Capitol Hill, sending down an edict on windmills, which he labeled an environmental disaster.

“I don’t want even one built during my administration. The thousands of dead and broken ones should be ripped down ASAP,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social. “Most expensive energy, only work with massive government subsidies, which we will no longer pay!”

Mr. Wright, if confirmed, would also oversee the Energy Department’s Wind Energy Technologies Office.
 
Yes.

I told you before. I'll gladly make this bet. Let's figure out an escrow and make this happen, if you're that confident.

My confidence on this comes from two places:

1) Hydrogen has such a low market share that it could keep doubling every year for the next decade and it won't catch EVs. Hydrogen vehicle sales have actually declined globally as EVs gain marketshare. The world now sells 100x more sex toys than hydrogen cars.

2) Nobody is seriously investing in hydrogen refueling infrastructure at scale. There's small projects here and there. But nothing close to the kind of fast charging networks being built.

Even the Japanese are starting to give up hope on Hydrogen and pivoting to making EVs so they can save their auto sector and their auto export dependent economy.

Maybe somebody will randomly decide to drop hundreds of billions of dollars on hydrogen infrastructure globally and then billions more to convince automakers in the next few years. But when even the oil companies are building EV charging stations I am confident in calling this one settled.
And where does the electricity come from and the infrastructure to support all these chargers? Not solar without batteries to store it as most vehicles are charged at night.
 
So to make sure I understand your position, you are saying that “the market has spoken” and that in 10-15+ years, there will be no hydrogen powered personal vehicles?

I won't say "no". I will say minimal. They are giving away the cars and can't sell them. You are so committed. Why don't you have one? Literally every sale helps them right now.

As the car reviewer pointed out, the cars themselves are ridiculous. The infrastructure is non-existent for most of the world.

And where does the electricity come from and the infrastructure to support all these chargers?

Where did the electricity come from when everybody got air conditioning? Where did the electricity come from when the internet took off and we built data centres? Where will the electricity come when we need more data centres for AI? By the way, the average charging load for a commuter using an EV is the same power draw as an air conditioner overnight.

You didn't worry about it before. You don't need to worry about it now. Demand drives capital investment. There will be plenty of investment into power generation and grid expansion.

I know you're used to tossing it out your Internet arguments against Ecowarriors. So this must be confusing for you. If you're a techno-optimist who believes in capitalism, environmental effects are ancillary benefits to cleantech. Neither you nor I care about the climate footprint or groundwater pollution involved in fueling your current water or manufacturing your washing machine. Let's be honest. And nobody will care about the next set of tech either. Whatever is cheaper and more efficient will win.

If you really care though, go for it. Cut your electricity consumption as low as possible. Make room for those of us who want to use more.
 
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