Hybrid Electric Vehicles

[Good2Golf]

I think the Diesel electric or gas electric is a great way to go. I can see a large Military application for this system. Every truck can run silent for 4 or five hours if required. When at the bivouac they can use the generator (s) to power the camp. Excellent ideas.

Would love that. Sadly the PHEV diesel-electric version of my SUV isn’t available in North America.

 

[ytz]

Whose fleets are those?

Literally every large fleet in the world. Most postal services in Europe are already electric. Every logistics company from Amazon to UPS has orders in go electric. Amazon put an order for 100 000 Rivian delivery vehicles specifically because they got exclusivity from Rivian through to the end of the decade. They will use this to cut their last mile costs and hit rivals who haven't electrified as fast. This is why you see companies like Walmart buying what they can too. From electric Sprinter vans to Tesla semis. They know Amazon is coming for them.

I am optimistic we'll continue to see increasingly electrified transportation, just not on the schedule climate zealots - even the moderate ones - are pushing, and not "100% net-zero-emission" in the near future. And the adoption curve will be lumpy as governments introduce and remove various forms of subsidy. When this "first generation" of materials for the current wave of adoption starts to age out, there will be substantial political fights over recycling and disposal.

All that matters is the battery price curve.

At $100/kWh, you have price parity on a 200 mile range car. For North Americans with bigger vehicles and higher range requirements (say 300 miles) maybe that's $70-80/kWh. The Chinese are at $94 while the rest of the world is at $115. There's going to be ups and down like you say. It won't be a straight line. But the rough trend for last two decades has been about 6-8% improvement in battery prices per year. That would put global parity about 2-3 years out. And North American parity about 7 years out. I would think by 2030 when ICEV sales have basically tanked everywhere outside North America, this forum will come around. I'll enjoy chirping from the cheap seats till then.