I'm not trying to fight for my ideas to the death here but let me make these observations:
- With respect to culture and the ARNG - our Res F culture right now is a complete waste of oxygen. Notwithstanding the excellent contribution of many reservists in Afghanistan, those contributions were made in circumstances which will probably never occur again (i.e. six months of predeployment training) and will absolutely not serve us in the scenario of a break-glass-in-case-of-fire situation. Our Res F (and I dare say our Reg F) culture has to change if the Army wants to be at all relevant. The only reason the government supports the Army with cash right now is because they haven't realized yet that the emperor has no clothes. I don't want to duplicate the ARNG but use it as a model and adopt those things that work well. Culturally they are not much different from us. Systemically we are worlds apart. Cultures can be modified and structure must be changed when they have continuously proven to be defective;
I'm with you on the end goal we should be working toward, but I believe that there are simply too many obstacles to making this work in the Force 2025-2030 time frame. Changes to legislation, infrastructure, doctrine, procurement, training, culture, etc. all take time and I believe if you try to do all of these things at once and too quickly you risk breaking the system altogether. Some may say this isn't a bad thing...the system is broken already...but you could lose what Government support there still is if it turns into even more of a shyte-show than it already is.
- I tend to favour the Res F having the heavier equipment primarily because the heavier equipment (tanks and artillery and, to an extent, LAVs) are rarely used during peacetime day-to-day activities. If one keeps a large component of the Reg F manning heavy equipment, they are less useful in the day-to-day peacetime missions. As an example look at Latvia - a place where tanks and SP guns are a necessity yet all we have there is a LAV company and some dismounted TOWs. Light and to some extent medium infantry are much more versatile for the peacetime missions that our government favours. I expect to see more of the traditional peacekeeping type of missions and far fewer, if any, of the Afghanistan type commitments. The Army should be structured to have its full-time component oriented towards those lighter missions;
Again, this makes total logical sense for the end result, but...
1) we still need to maintain a useable force while all of the structural/organizational/legislative/material changes are being made.
2) The proposed "Heavy" Reg Force component is (as many have pointed out) is really a Medium force. Our government has been (and will almost certainly continue to be) casualty adverse, so I see a LAV-based force continue to be the preferred type of deployment of non-CANSOF forces going forward. Once the required organizational changes have been made to make the Reserves a deployable entity and we finally get around to purchasing actual Heavy force equipment, then one of the Light Reserve Brigades could take on that equipment to become your "break glass in case of fire" Heavy force...while the Reg Force LAV Brigade would now be your ongoing Medium force for OOTW deployments.
- In business transformation there are two competing imperatives. The first is to resist immediate and large reorganization - instead try to find quick wins to help overcome resistance to change. Opposing that is the requirement to embed the changes in the new culture so that, amongst other things, there is no backsliding. When it comes to equipment, the Reg F has a voracious appetite in grabbing the goodies for itself (see the Bison as a prime example). Heavy equipment is very much coveted by the Reg F regardless as to whether or not it needs it on a day-to-day basis. If we start a cultural change to build the Res F as but leave the heavy equipment to the Reg F, while focusing the Res F on the light equipment backsliding becomes all to easy. The key here is to clearly focus on the vision of transformation of the Army to the notion that the Res F will take a predominant role in the heavy equipment side of the force, and start down the road to conversion in gradual stages that develop confidence in the ultimate achievability of the goal. That's not to say that the Res F will only be heavy. Other elements need to be more proficient at light and CSS. Again if you look at the ARNG and the USAR together, you will see that only a small portion is heavy armour. The majority are CSS, light manoeuvre, artillery, engineer and other specialties. That should be our goal as well;
I would embed the cultural changes by integrating the Reg Force and Reserves even in the absence of heavy equipment. I'll try and sketch out a rough idea for a possible structure when I have more time but I'm envisioning a Reg Force LAV Brigade and two hybrid Reg Force/Reserve Light Brigades. The Reserves wouldn't be left on their own as a separate entity from the Reg Force. In fact, in the short term it's likely that the most development and new equipment might go to the Light forces.
All the LAV Brigade really needs to become an effective Medium-weight force really is maybe a turreted mortar vehicle and some Remote Weapons Stations with ATGMs and SAMs. On the Light end of the spectrum there are lots of opportunities for the development of new doctrine, TTPs and equipment...all of which are better suited to the current support capabilities of the Reserves. Once the new equipment (real IFVs, new tanks, etc.?) start to come online in a decade+ the Reserve Brigade(s) will have already had a chance to work out the new structures and get the required support systems in place to be able to start taking on the Heavy role.
- Do not focus on current limitations. The plan has to be designed to pound those limitations into the dust. No reorganization plan will ever work until we first make some changes to the culture of the Res F - employee protection legislation is a part of that; some minor legislative changes to put some teeth into mandatory training requirements; absolutely a rehabilitated individual training structure; a defined collective training structure; a proper integrated leadership structure. I have a tendency to drive timelines but my guess would be that one could lay the foundation for the structural changes in one year. Transformation itself would probably take another four years but could be done within the resources which are available right now with existing personnel numbers, equipment holdings and infrastructure. To advance the total force by curing all its capability deficiencies would take additional time and resources.
I envy your optimism regarding timelines but find it difficult to believe them. It might take a swimming pool full of Kool-Aid to convince me but I hope you are right and I'm wrong.
It's obvious that I favour radical reform. I do this primarily because I have seen 55 years of fine tuning the Res F over-and-over again but with none of it leading to any change in the fundamental situation. Fine tuning a patently broken system is futile and as they say, "insanity is doing the same thing over-and-over again and expecting a different result". It's time to stop being insane and time to be bold.
Again, I don't think we're really too far apart on the end state, but just on what we consider as realistic timelines and some of the specific intermediate steps required.