Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Colin Parkinson]

What does “clear the strait” mean to you?

The problem set here isn’t one of physical control in a given moment, but rather the ability of Iran to selectively threaten shipping enough to at a minimum make it uninsurable, and to pressure commodity trade. That’s gonna be a tough nut to crack.

Reducing their ability to observe and interfere. The islands have always been an issue and Iran uses them as part of their control network. Denying them the smaller Islands certainly helps to keep the Straits open. Really the bigger island of Qeshm would be ideal to wrestle from their control, but I don't think the US have the troops to do that, unless the islanders raise up, as I recall there were protests there early on. The IRGC does not have limitless resources either and 80 million+ people in the country that would like to see them dead. I believe they are using up their existing resources and are going to struggle once that stockpile is gone.

 

[brihard]

Reducing their ability to observe and interfere. The islands have always been an issue and Iran uses them as part of their control network. Denying them the smaller Islands certainly helps to keep the Straits open. Really the bigger island of Qeshm would be ideal to wrestle from their control, but I don't think the US have the troops to do that, unless the islanders raise up, as I recall there were protests there early on. The IRGC does not have limitless resources either and 80 million+ people in the country that would like to see them dead. I believe they are using up their existing resources and are going to struggle once that stockpile is gone.

View attachment 99139

That’s a rather optimistic notion of how easily they should be able to blind Iran’s SA of the general movement of large merchant vessels…

 

[Cloud Cover]

If the US is determined to take those islands and hold them with little interference, they are going to need one one hell of a distraction elsewhere in Iran to keep the regime occupied with something even more pressing.

 

[NavyShooter]

I don't for a second think that the US is going to put those marines on Kharg island.

They'll go for one or more of the small islands in the straits first.

 

[eliminator]

Sounding desperate....

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

 

[brihard]

Sounding desperate....

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

That threat is bereft of sober, intelligent, rational strategizing. He does that, Iran will just shrug and resume smashing a bunch more economic infrastructure throughout the Gulf. More economic MAD. Iran can play that game well enough to send nobody away a winner.

 

[CBH99]

The U.S. has quite a bit dedicated to NATO including a couple Aegis Ashore systems, and I believe Germany has Arrow 3 up and running now.

Ah, as usual you are right good sir. I stand corrected.

So replace Italy & France with Poland & Romania (and Germany)

....

I don't for a second think that the US is going to put those marines on Kharg island.

They'll go for one or more of the small islands in the straits first.

It's VERY rare that US Marines get to do the traditional 'marine stuff' for real - like forcefully take an island from the enemy and/or do contested beach landings...

These kids must be excited for what may happen in short order here!



Same goes for modern day paratroopers.

Other than the 75th Ranger Regiment doing a 'combat jump onto an airfield' in Afghanistan, how often do paratroopers get to jump on real world operations as a formation?

Prior to the Afghan jump, I think it was WW2

 

[Brad Sallows]

That threat is bereft of sober, intelligent, rational strategizing. He does that, Iran will just shrug and resume smashing a bunch more economic infrastructure throughout the Gulf. More economic MAD. Iran can play that game well enough to send nobody away a winner.

That might be true if Iran were holding stuff back.

Several important political, military, and regime security leaders have been killed; major naval and air equipments have been destroyed; facilities for producing military equipment including drones and missiles have been destroyed and damaged. Internal security forces can, obviously, be targeted when they go about their jobs.

We should assume that Iran has just been showing a little of what it has up its sleeve, and that it is capable of really unloading?

Another possibility: Iran is using everything it has as fast as it can reconstitute anything and has nothing in reserve except more candidates for vacant leadership positions.

 

[suffolkowner]

back to the fertilizer situation for the bit. Looks like production wise theres no problem in Canada and the US
apparently according to Secretary only 25% of fertilizer production has been secured for the season so back to a pricing issue

 

[brihard]

That might be true if Iran were holding stuff back.

Several important political, military, and regime security leaders have been killed; major naval and air equipments have been destroyed; facilities for producing military equipment including drones and missiles have been destroyed and damaged. Internal security forces can, obviously, be targeted when they go about their jobs.

We should assume that Iran has just been showing a little of what it has up its sleeve, and that it is capable of really unloading?

Another possibility: Iran is using everything it has as fast as it can reconstitute anything and has nothing in reserve except more candidates for vacant leadership positions.

What are you going on about? Just days ago they landed an economically massive hit on Qatar’s natural gas sector. I’m not talking about Iran having some additional, still more potent capabilities it’s been hiding away awaiting this moment. I’m talking about simply more of the same on already known soft economic targets. Refineries, liquefaction plants, loading terminals… None of this requires some hidden super weapon; just Iran deciding “OK, fine, let’s take out three more of Qatar’s LNG production trains.” and firing more of the same.

Since my previous reply, sounds like they’ve promised to do exactly that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035522288091627928

I believe Iran retains sufficient ability to make the costs of further strikes on their civil infrastructure economically cost prohibitive. Doesn’t mean Trump won’t do it anyway.

 

[suffolkowner]

What are you going on about? Just days ago they landed an economically massive hit on Qatar’s natural gas sector. I’m not talking about Iran having some additional, still more potent capabilities it’s been hiding away awaiting this moment. I’m talking about simply more of the same on already known soft economic targets. Refineries, liquefaction plants, loading terminals… None of this requires some hidden super weapon; just Iran deciding “OK, fine, let’s take out three more of Qatar’s LNG production trains.” and firing more of the same.

Since my previous reply, sounds like they’ve promised to do exactly that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035522288091627928

I believe Iran retains sufficient ability to make the costs of further strikes on their civil infrastructure economically cost prohibitive. Doesn’t mean Trump won’t do it anyway.

theres no reason for Trump to care is there?

 

[Brad Sallows]

theres no reason for Trump to care is there?

If Iran is proposing to hold third parties hostage, everyone should care.

 

[Remius]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035503180314763434

Start the clock.

 

[Cloud Cover]

 

[Colin Parkinson]

That’s a rather optimistic notion of how easily they should be able to blind Iran’s SA of the general movement of large merchant vessels…

It will help and also within the realm of what you can do with a few thousand marine. Even if they just raid them and withdraw, it forces the IRGC to start setting up defenses or manning them along the coasts and that helps generates targets. We have a habit of overestimating our opponents, which is not a bad thing, but I bet things are not going well on the other side either.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Sounding desperate....

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

Whatever makes him think that, outside the US, anybody actually bothers to read what's on "Truth Social"???

 

[ytz]

What does “clear the strait” mean to you?

The problem set here isn’t one of physical control in a given moment, but rather the ability of Iran to selectively threaten shipping enough to at a minimum make it uninsurable, and to pressure commodity trade. That’s gonna be a tough nut to crack.

Not to mention that the Strait is only half the problem. Israel bombs the Pars field. Iran responded by taking out 20% of Ras Laffan. That is like actual percentage points of global gas supply. The Qataris have said it's $20B worth of damage and will take years to recover.

Trump is now threatening to bomb Iran's power plants. Technically an actual war crime. When Iran responds by targeting Gulf power plants and desal, I wonder what Trump's response will be.

The Strait is half the problem. The actual problem here is the escalation ladder. And it's actually Iran that has escalation dominance. Trump has never experienced not having escalation dominance and now he's panicking.

 

[brihard]

It will help and also within the realm of what you can do with a few thousand marine.

It also leaves a few thousand Marines horrendously exposed.

Even if they just raid them and withdraw, it forces the IRGC to start setting up defenses or manning them along the coasts and that helps generates targets.

Does it though? IRGC can choose not to contest ground on America’s terms, but would likely welcome American troops in range of small drones fired from standoff. Nothing forces Iran to give the Americans a set piece battle along the coast.

We have a habit of overestimating our opponents, which is not a bad thing, but I bet things are not going well on the other side either.

I’m estimating that Iran has observed how troops in Ukraine can be killed with FPVs and the video sent out quickly online, and that they recognize how potent this would be against America if they can pull it off. I believe this would serve Russia’s interests too. I estimate Iran has likely acquired ‘good enough’ attack drone capability to make this a reality, and that Russia could and would supply more.

 

[ytz]

It will help and also within the realm of what you can do with a few thousand marine. Even if they just raid them and withdraw, it forces the IRGC to start setting up defenses or manning them along the coasts and that helps generates targets. We have a habit of overestimating our opponents, which is not a bad thing, but I bet things are not going well on the other side either.

I think you're actually underestimating the opponent here.

 

[ytz]

back to the fertilizer situation for the bit. Looks like production wise theres no problem in Canada and the US

1) Nobody was ever worried about supply in the US and Canada.

2) As long as there are no export restrictions, North Americans farmers will still have to pay high prices.