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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Would be interested in seeing the logistics behind the feeding, hydrating and sheltering those Marines on that island on a consistent basis.
And their CASEVAC plans. If Iran got any decent volume of fiber optic tethered drones into range, they could have a really, really bad time.
 
Paid in chinese currency. Let’s not forget what is really at play and how the US is getting played hard right now.

Ending the petrodollar to help boost Netanyahu's chances of re-election is quite the trade.

hit a city without warning a few times and the population will be screaming for action, and that would lead to an all out war in the M.E.

Or demands to quit. The Blindspot in this forum is that all of us are Westerners sitting in Canada and the US. The people in that region have a distinctly different perception of this war. Most notably, they feel like this was foisted on them by the Americans and Israelis. That makes escalation a very hard sell. "Risk your lives for Trump and Netanyahu," isn't really going to win them over.

You mean like President Reagan after the bombing of the Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon?

Or Clinton after the Blackhawk Down incident in Somalia and the USS Cole bombing in Yemen. Leaders can and do capitulate if they think escalation is worthwhile.

If the regime survives, they are not going to have anywhere near the funds to rebuild their arsenal. They are going to spend most of their monies in repressing the people and that is going to reduce the economy. Just repairing the day to day policing structure is going to keep them busy for years.

They'll have proven their worth in the CRINK axis and have dominance over their neighbours. I don't see why China and Russia won't bolster them and use Iran to dominate the Middle East. If you were in Xi's shoes why would you not do that?
 
There are numerous small island s and one large one right at the bend. The large on would make sense, but not with only about 1200 marines to actually land and fight with, so they might land, and seize the smaller islands first. Clearing them of any military related stuff. There were protests on the bigger island, so the population there may be supportive.

Qeshm Island (the large island you refer to) is bigger than Okinawa, Japan and has a population of 148k. The entire coastal region of Iran is larger than South Vietnam. 1200 Marines is enough to take small islands like Larak, Sirri, Abu Musa and the Tunbs. But all those troops would still be massively exposed. Resupply would be difficult since the USN doesn't want to enter the Strait itself.

And Iran could respond by attacking more Gulf oil and gas infrastructure. Then what?
 
That said, if it was a low volume of missiles I think NATO’s collective ABM would have things covered?
What NATO collective ABM/BMD??

Other than the UK's Type 45 (OSINT hint - they don't appear to be especially available at the moment) and USN vessels stationed in Rota, Spain - does Europe have any sort of real ABM??

(F-35's defending against incoming ballistic missiles? Maybe Typhoon has an ABM capability? Some FREMM frigates assigned to that role?)



I feel like it will be the French & the Italians defending the rest of Europe if Iran launches them that far

(I would imagine the 2 Aegis-equipped Burke destroyers stationed in Rota are probably lobbing Tomahawks at Iran right now, so probably can't even be useful in the context of ABM)
 
What NATO collective ABM/BMD??

Other than the UK's Type 45 (OSINT hint - they don't appear to be especially available at the moment) and USN vessels stationed in Rota, Spain - does Europe have any sort of real ABM??

(F-35's defending against incoming ballistic missiles? Maybe Typhoon has an ABM capability? Some FREMM frigates assigned to that role?)



I feel like it will be the French & the Italians defending the rest of Europe if Iran launches them that far

(I would imagine the 2 Aegis-equipped Burke destroyers stationed in Rota are probably lobbing Tomahawks at Iran right now, so probably can't even be useful in the context of ABM)
The U.S. has quite a bit dedicated to NATO including a couple Aegis Ashore systems, and I believe Germany has Arrow 3 up and running now.
 
If the regime survives, they are not going to have anywhere near the funds to rebuild their arsenal. They are going to spend most of their monies in repressing the people and that is going to reduce the economy. Just repairing the day to day policing structure is going to keep them busy for years.
water first.
 
water first.
I don't think people realize how effed the Iranians were even before this war. the government was planning on abandoning Tehran due to the water shortage and big part of the problem is tied to their main historical backers, which is the agricultural landholders, who are very wasteful of the water they do have.
 
Just looking at GE, Greater, lesser Tunb Islands and Siri island all have airfields and small harbours. As does Abumusa Island. Grabbing some or all these island is well within the USMC capabilities and would remove them as observation bases and allow Himars to be stationed closer to Iran. I suspect the offensive capabilities of these islands has been neutralized.

These could be taken over later by other forces. My guess is that most of the populations are associated with the oil and gas industry or the IRGC and might need some form of control.
 
IAEA: Easy there, fellas ...
 
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