And their CASEVAC plans. If Iran got any decent volume of fiber optic tethered drones into range, they could have a really, really bad time.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
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Ending the petrodollar to help boost Netanyahu's chances of re-election is quite the trade.
Or demands to quit. The Blindspot in this forum is that all of us are Westerners sitting in Canada and the US. The people in that region have a distinctly different perception of this war. Most notably, they feel like this was foisted on them by the Americans and Israelis. That makes escalation a very hard sell. "Risk your lives for Trump and Netanyahu," isn't really going to win them over.
Or Clinton after the Blackhawk Down incident in Somalia and the USS Cole bombing in Yemen. Leaders can and do capitulate if they think escalation is worthwhile.
They'll have proven their worth in the CRINK axis and have dominance over their neighbours. I don't see why China and Russia won't bolster them and use Iran to dominate the Middle East. If you were in Xi's shoes why would you not do that?
Qeshm Island (the large island you refer to) is bigger than Okinawa, Japan and has a population of 148k. The entire coastal region of Iran is larger than South Vietnam. 1200 Marines is enough to take small islands like Larak, Sirri, Abu Musa and the Tunbs. But all those troops would still be massively exposed. Resupply would be difficult since the USN doesn't want to enter the Strait itself.
And Iran could respond by attacking more Gulf oil and gas infrastructure. Then what?
What NATO collective ABM/BMD??
Other than the UK's Type 45 (OSINT hint - they don't appear to be especially available at the moment) and USN vessels stationed in Rota, Spain - does Europe have any sort of real ABM??
(F-35's defending against incoming ballistic missiles? Maybe Typhoon has an ABM capability? Some FREMM frigates assigned to that role?)
I feel like it will be the French & the Italians defending the rest of Europe if Iran launches them that far
(I would imagine the 2 Aegis-equipped Burke destroyers stationed in Rota are probably lobbing Tomahawks at Iran right now, so probably can't even be useful in the context of ABM)
daftandbarmy
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HavokFour
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UK reacting to the shots taken at Diego Garcia.
www.reuters.com
Britain says Cyprus base will not be part of UK-US self-defence deal
Britain said its Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus would not be involved in its defensive agreement with the United States to use UK bases, after a call on Saturday between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides.
www.reuters.com
The U.S. has quite a bit dedicated to NATO including a couple Aegis Ashore systems, and I believe Germany has Arrow 3 up and running now.
water first.
Oldgateboatdriver
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The French and Italian navies equivalent to US AB and British type 45 AAW vessels are the Orrizonti/Horizon class vessels, not the FREEMs
daftandbarmy
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I don't think people realize how effed the Iranians were even before this war. the government was planning on abandoning Tehran due to the water shortage and big part of the problem is tied to their main historical backers, which is the agricultural landholders, who are very wasteful of the water they do have.
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Just looking at GE, Greater, lesser Tunb Islands and Siri island all have airfields and small harbours. As does Abumusa Island. Grabbing some or all these island is well within the USMC capabilities and would remove them as observation bases and allow Himars to be stationed closer to Iran. I suspect the offensive capabilities of these islands has been neutralized.
These could be taken over later by other forces. My guess is that most of the populations are associated with the oil and gas industry or the IRGC and might need some form of control.
These could be taken over later by other forces. My guess is that most of the populations are associated with the oil and gas industry or the IRGC and might need some form of control.
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Sounds like California, TBH.
PrairieFella
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The fact one family owns the lions-share of water rights in Southern California is insane and immoral.
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IAEA: Easy there, fellas ...
www.vaticannews.va
www.aljazeera.com
www.jpost.com
IAEA urges restraint after reported strike on Iran’s Natanz site - Vatican News
The United Nations' nuclear watchdog has urged military restraint to avoid any risk of a nuclear accident after Iran said the Natanz nuclear facility ...
www.vaticannews.va
Iran says US and Israel attacked Natanz nuclear facility
No leakage of radioactive materials reported in the area in central Iran, Tehran's atomic energy organisation says.
No war can destroy Iran's nuclear ambitions, IAEA director says | The Jerusalem Post
Even if facilities and equipment are damaged, Grossi emphasized that reconstruction would be "very possible," since Iran has the knowledge of how to build them.
www.jpost.com
Again. Taking these islands is not a problem. The problem is what comes after. Show the the plan for when Iran responds by attacking more of Ras Laffan or launching drone swarms at the Marines on those islands.
Before you respond, I want you to do what you did when you had a uniform on. Actually think through Enemy COAs.
I know I keep banging on about this but I don’t want to see a bunch of kids killed. There’s no reason to assume Iran doesn’t have access to 40+ km range fiber optic FPV drones like Ukraine does, that are very resistant to jamming. Those islands are in range. If the U.S. is going boots on the ground they absolutely must have a rock solid local air defence plan ready for this threat. Otherwise the videoed deaths of those American troops, beyond the pure tragedy of the losses themselves, will probably be the most savage info ops material the Americans have ever faced.
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All fair comments, but if you want to clear the Straits, you will need to clear those islands, regardless of the fact that it is likely to cost some lives. Even if you clear and then depart, you made it difficult for them to use.
daftandbarmy
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Estimates suggesting the security of the S of H will be the highest priority when the USMC arrives..
How to take the strait: Pentagon options for a land operation by US marines and paratroopers
With a specialist unit on its way to the Gulf, experts explain how American boots on the ground could be used
“Somebody right now is certainly looking at a target pack and asking: ‘Can we open the strait by using land forces?’” said Dr Nusbacher. “Someone has also clearly briefed that they could be doing a lot of raiding, and USS Tripoli could be optimised for aviation with loads of helicopters on board.”
How to take the strait: Pentagon options for a land operation by US marines and paratroopers | The National
With a specialist unit on its way to the Gulf, experts explain how American boots on the ground could be used
www.thenationalnews.com
What does “clear the strait” mean to you?
The problem set here isn’t one of physical control in a given moment, but rather the ability of Iran to selectively threaten shipping enough to at a minimum make it uninsurable, and to pressure commodity trade. That’s gonna be a tough nut to crack.
