Yes, but that bet was reciprocal. The U.S. thought they could force Iran into status quo ante, and it appears that’s not the case.
Iran had to know they would face further infrastructure hits and decided to strike anyway. I suspect their bets are at least in part predicated to the U.S. political calendar.
Give it a few more days of this and see what the oil markets are doing… Remmeber that when we see spot prices theyMre normally for Texas or North Sea oil deliveries one to two months hence; they’re therefore a bit of a ‘smoother’ bet on what oil will cost some time in the future; they therefore leave some room for relatively brief blips and are a reflection of mid term sentiment rather than what’s going on today. So, they’ll reflect how the market assesses the risk that this drags on intermittently or continuously.
Iran got some 50 million barrels of oil out (the majority to China), and probably pocketed a couple billion bucks, giving it a modest amount of breathing room. Volumes from the Gulf still haven’t come close to pre war, and inventories and reserves have not replenished. It was more a pause in things getting worse than much chance for recovery. We could easily see the world oil situation rapidly resume worsening. Hopefully it doesn’t… But that’s Iran’s biggest leverage and they know it.
So, maybe this settles over the weekend, or maybe we’re right back into it. Lots of U.S. aircraft went home, but that can be reversed quickly.
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