Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

Yes, but that bet was reciprocal. The U.S. thought they could force Iran into status quo ante, and it appears that’s not the case.

Iran had to know they would face further infrastructure hits and decided to strike anyway. I suspect their bets are at least in part predicated to the U.S. political calendar.

Give it a few more days of this and see what the oil markets are doing… Remmeber that when we see spot prices theyMre normally for Texas or North Sea oil deliveries one to two months hence; they’re therefore a bit of a ‘smoother’ bet on what oil will cost some time in the future; they therefore leave some room for relatively brief blips and are a reflection of mid term sentiment rather than what’s going on today. So, they’ll reflect how the market assesses the risk that this drags on intermittently or continuously.

Iran got some 50 million barrels of oil out (the majority to China), and probably pocketed a couple billion bucks, giving it a modest amount of breathing room. Volumes from the Gulf still haven’t come close to pre war, and inventories and reserves have not replenished. It was more a pause in things getting worse than much chance for recovery. We could easily see the world oil situation rapidly resume worsening. Hopefully it doesn’t… But that’s Iran’s biggest leverage and they know it.

So, maybe this settles over the weekend, or maybe we’re right back into it. Lots of U.S. aircraft went home, but that can be reversed quickly.

Global reserves are still low as well.

I think the US salt mines for their petroleum reserves are halfway drawn down as well. They started at 415m barrels and are down to 325m now. (they cannot go below 160m barrels filled or they risk collapse.)

So time isn't on the side of the USA here.

 

[brihard]

Global reserves are still low as well.

I think the US salt mines for their petroleum reserves are halfway drawn down as well. They started at 415m barrels and are down to 325m now. (they cannot go below 160m barrels filled or they risk collapse.)

So time isn't on the side of the USA here.

No, but the U.S. has more breathing room than many Asian countries.

 

[McG]

I think Iran is comfortable in its assessment that the US is not prepared to mount the decisive effort needed to force its will onto Iran, and I don’t think Iran worries how long it will take for the US to become permanent distracted away from this.

The US won’t commit forces into a land war, and Iran believes it can weather all the alternatives.

 

[QV]

"Iran comfortable", sure.

 

[Altair]

I think Iran is comfortable in its assessment that the US is not prepared to mount the decisive effort needed to force its will onto Iran, and I don’t think Iran worries how long it will take for the US to become permanent distracted away from this.

The US won’t commit forces into a land war, and Iran believes it can weather all the alternatives.

Iran has looked all throughout world military history and realized exactly zero nations have fallen to regime change due to air power alone.

 

[Nvlgzr]

What personal deals would those be?

Hotels, golf, residences

Trump raked in $28 million from Middle East business deals. Then he started a war.

The president's Persian Gulf real estate projects are worth roughly $17 billion.

www.motherjones.com

 

[PuckChaser]

Hotels, golf, residences

Are you going to be the reason this thread gets locked, or can you figure out how to move your discussion to the appropriate area?

- Milnet.ca Staff

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Maybe dust off Op Arc Light.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Maybe dust off Op Arc Light.

View attachment 101174

Because that won the war...

... oh, wait ...

 

[KevinB]

I think Iran is comfortable in its assessment that the US is not prepared to mount the decisive effort needed to force its will onto Iran, and I don’t think Iran worries how long it will take for the US to become permanent distracted away from this.

The US won’t commit forces into a land war, and Iran believes it can weather all the alternatives.

I think Iran is miscalculating on what DJT may or may not do.

He may loose the midterms because of Iran, and if he does, he’s going to give Iran 2 years of raining death.

 

[GK .Dundas]

I think Iran is miscalculating on what DJT may or may not do.

He may loose the midterms because of Iran, and if he does, he’s going to give Iran 2 years of raining death.

I don't think the people running Iran really care if he does . Especially if they're still in charge at the end of it. I think they're counting on his attention span or rather his lack of one .

 

[McG]

He may loose the midterms because of Iran, and if he does, he’s going to give Iran 2 years of raining death.

If he looses the midterms, do you not think his powers will be curtailed to the point that he can't do anything any longer in Iran?

 

[PrairieFella]

For what its worth, we're starting to get new spikes. On a trip in NW Ont and diesel prices jumped like crazy. Its 2.10/L now. Listening to breaking points earlier, they were saying the US is down to around 300MM barrels left in their reserve. Not much left in the tank.

 

[brihard]

Doesn’t look like things have simmered down. Another wave of back and forth strikes is ongoing. Iran hit a container ship earlier with a cruise missile; UKMTO has reported it as abandoned ship and I’ve seen other less rigorously sourced reports of it being on fire and a crew member missing. Iran has fired missiles at the usual collection of Gulf states as well as, I think, a U.S. base in Jordan.

The latest couple rounds seem to be Iranian response to shipping basically increasingly ignoring their attempted control measures imposed on the Strait.

 

[Altair]

For what its worth, we're starting to get new spikes. On a trip in NW Ont and diesel prices jumped like crazy. Its 2.10/L now. Listening to breaking points earlier, they were saying the US is down to around 300MM barrels left in their reserve. Not much left in the tank.

Yup, and they need a minimum of 160m or the salt mines may collapse.

so 140m more to play with.

 

[Furniture]

The latest couple rounds seem to be Iranian response to shipping basically increasingly ignoring their attempted control measures imposed on the Strait.

They may find the more they try to squeeze, the more the world accepts the risk.

The threat of action is often more powerful than action. People have been quick to apply that wisdom to America's strikes on Iran, but many seemed to ignore the same applies to Iran.

Iran can't hit every ship, and eventually the threat of hitting ships gets less severe than the risk of having a few ships sink. Shutting down Asia's oil supply will eventually reach a point of shippers and insurers saying "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead". Iran may have over played their hand...

 

[Altair]

They may find the more they try to squeeze, the more the world accepts the risk.

The threat of action is often more powerful than action. People have been quick to apply that wisdom to America's strikes on Iran, but many seemed to ignore the same applies to Iran.

Iran can't hit every ship, and eventually the threat of hitting ships gets less severe than the risk of having a few ships sink. Shutting down Asia's oil supply will eventually reach a point of shippers and insurers saying "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead". Iran may have over played their hand...

Who is paying for the insurance?

No insurance agency is going to cover transit through the Strait. So what, go potential sink your ship and get nothing for it?

Ain't happening.

 

[Furniture]

Who is paying for the insurance?

No insurance agency is going to cover transit through the Strait. So what, go potential sink your ship and get nothing for it?

Ain't happening.

Except it has been... and the cost of allowing Iran to control the oil supply to Asia is far greater than a few dead sailors and sunk ships.

Piracy and Houthi's didn't end shipping through the BAM/GoA, Iran can't indefinitely stop shipping through the straits.

This shitshow is dragging on longer than anyone predicted, and as it drags on, Iran's one party trick will be ignored/countered. It's likely that eventually India/Pakistan/Philippines will get tired of their citizens dieing, and take action.

 

[Altair]

Except it has been... and the cost of allowing Iran to control the oil supply to Asia is far greater than a few dead sailors and sunk ships.

Piracy and Houthi's didn't end shipping through the BAM/GoA, Iran can't indefinitely stop shipping through the straits.

This shitshow is dragging on longer than anyone predicted, and as it drags on, Iran's one party trick will be ignored/countered. It's likely that eventually India/Pakistan/Philippines will get tired of their citizens dieing, and take action.

Sure, for governments.

What ship owner is going to decide that their ship and their life if worth getting sunk by Iran?

And Iran doesn't need to fully stop shipping. They need to stop the bulk of shipping. Same for the houthis, they didn't need to fully shut down the BaM, they needed to force most of global traffic around all of Africa.

Iran is a one trick pony but it's a hell of a trick. The solution is to build infrastructure to bypass the SOH, but that infrastructure becomes obsolete the second the SOH is open.

Until that geopolitical and geographic reality changes, Iran has the global oil market in their hands.

Global oil reserves are dangerously low, even in the USA. Forget the midterms, global oil supplies won't last that long, especially in Asia, and not in the USA.

 

[Furniture]

Global oil reserves are dangerously low, even in the USA. Forget the midterms, global oil supplies won't last that long, especially in Asia, and not in the USA.

This part makes the rest of your post irrelevant...

Iran has one trick, and it's not actually that great of a trick. They can sink some ships, some of the time. Eventually, economics makes ships and sailors disposable enough to start to ignore their trick.

We aren't there yet, bet let's not pretend Iran can keep playing it's game forever. China will never hit a number of dead Indian or Philippino sailors high enough to make them care about the human cost of defying Iran. They will pump money in to solve their problem, and there will always be someone desperate enough to risk it.