Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

The best part of this cluster is watching the war measures resolution die a pathetic, shameful, death.

 

[PuckChaser]

Everyone's been so good so far but if you want to be the reason we drag this into the politics area, please continue.

- Milnet.ca Staff

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Oh fully agree.

My point is that no one is safe.
America and Israel have a modest cushion above others before things grind to a stop.


They can be flooded with seawater - I have zero idea on what that does long term though.

Everyone is.

At the end of the day the current situation isn’t sustainable.

It isn’t fascination.
Regardless of calling it Americas war or not as you have mentioned it is a global issue.

At a point the west will act out of necessity.

History has shown that outlook to be wrong time and time again.



Where did I say anything about Trumps crusade.



Iran is very well aware that there is a fine line of how it can push the West and the Gulf States before it becomes worthwhile to act with a very heavy hand.

Part of the challenge is that the Gulf States are used to having someone else do the lifting. If the Houthi try closing the Straits again, it's possible that Egypt might decide to help out this time, they do have two amphibious landing ships for such a purpose and not their first Yemen adventure. Cutting the Houthi's off from the coast, will cause them no end of trouble and international orgs have stopped sending aid in, which has been a big source of cash for them. KSA and UAE have to stop effing around in Yemen and start backing the same players, or at least have their proxies play nice with each other.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You’d be gloriously happy your house burned down if you could blame it on President Trump wouldn’t you.

Maybe remember if a drunken skipper is at the helm, the crew sitting back giving peanut gallery comments at it hits a shoal doesn’t make you less culpable.

You seems to misunderstand that in a global oil crisis everyone is screwed.

And, pulling on that string even more, could there be famine in one or more parts of the world? Could there be a new Civil War because of this, which leads to potential millions of new refugees/illegal mirgtants on the march?
The possible cascading affects are endless.

 

[Furniture]

Just a reminder for those who are too deep in their politics to see things objectively, the last time the Houthi shut the BAM the world got together to deal with it.

There is zero reason to believe the world will be any happier/tolerant with the Houthi this time. The BAM makes it about far more than energy and fertilizer, and will hit China just as hard or harder than the West.

China can have all the coal they want, but if the world can't get their goods, they aren't making money.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

And, pulling on that string even more, could there be famine in one or more parts of the world? Could there be a new Civil War because of this, which leads to potential millions of new refugees/illegal mirgtants on the march?
The possible cascading affects are endless.

No one seems to give a sh*t about the current civil war and famine in Sudan, now if Egypt goes down the toilet, people are going to worry big time.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No one seems to give a sh*t about the current civil war and famine in Sudan, now if Egypt goes down the toilet, people are going to worry big time.

What about Saudi? UAE? Qatar?

 

[Kilted]

Is Trump even pretending that there is a least an objective anymore?

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Is Trump even pretending that there is a least an objective anymore?

Sorry! A what???

 

[brihard]

Just a reminder for those who are too deep in their politics to see things objectively, the last time the Houthi shut the BAM the world got together to deal with it.

There is zero reason to believe the world will be any happier/tolerant with the Houthi this time. The BAM makes it about far more than energy and fertilizer, and will hit China just as hard or harder than the West.

China can have all the coal they want, but if the world can't get their goods, they aren't making money.

Ok, but did commercial shipping return to normal through BaM as a result of coalition military action that collectively defeated the Houthis? I donmt believe it did. Further, has the continued rapid development of strike drones made the job of threatening shipping through that Strait easier? I suspect it has.

I think the Houthis are capable of being enough of a threat that the same issue of commercial insurance denying coverage can become an effective halt on much merchant shipping.

 

[Furniture]

Ok, but did commercial shipping return to normal through BaM as a result of coalition military action that collectively defeated the Houthis? I donmt believe it did. Further, has the continued rapid development of strike drones made the job of threatening shipping through that Strait easier? I suspect it has.

I think the Houthis are capable of being enough of a threat that the same issue of commercial insurance denying coverage can become an effective halt on much merchant shipping.

You're right... it's hopeless, that part of the world is out of bounds forever. Abandon all hope. I'll start collecting leather clothing bits in preparation for our Mad Max future.

Either the impact will be far less than some of you are predicting, or the world will act. You can't have it both ways.

 

[OldSolduer]

In a hundred years historians will ask “WTF were they thinking???”

 

[Altair]

You're right... it's hopeless, that part of the world is out of bounds forever. Abandon all hope. I'll start collecting leather clothing bits in preparation for our Mad Max future.

Either the impact will be far less than some of you are predicting, or the world will act. You can't have it both ways.

The world will act.

Rich nations will suck up all the available oil, poor nations will get shut out,fuel and fertilizer prices will skyrocket, the global economy grinds to a halt, and the poorest and most vulnerable die in droves. Because the poorest nations with the least access to oil are, in fact, poor, they don't have militaries exactly capable of taking on Iran.

The west can tolerate a lot of economic pain, look at covid lockdowns. Unfortunately for the west, tolerating economic pain usually fuels extremist parties so we have that to look forward to as well.

 

[Furniture]

The world will act.

Rich nations will suck up all the available oil, poor nations will get shut out,fuel and fertilizer prices will skyrocket, the global economy grinds to a halt, and the poorest and most vulnerable die in droves. Because the poorest nations with the least access to oil are, in fact, poor, they don't have militaries exactly capable of taking on Iran.

The west can tolerate a lot of economic pain, look at covid lockdowns. Unfortunately for the west, tolerating economic pain usually fuels extremist parties so we have that to look forward to as well.

If the global economy grinds to a halt, the world will be at war.

Like I said, either the impact won't be as bad as some are predicting, or the world will act.

There is no scenario where the global economy grinds to a halt without response, because a few religious wack-jobs with weapons were too much for the rest of the world to handle.

The West is still comfortable for now, so it doesn't feel a need to act. When it gets uncomfortable enough, some dudes are going to have a chance to meet their maker. Human nature hasn't changed, our access to resources has... take away access, and many of those evil colonizers from Europe and Asia will rediscover their love of conflict/conquest.

 

[HavokFour]

Best of luck. 2000ft of granite will be a tough nut.

Nice of him to give advance warning.

Trump says the US will take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said that the U.S. would take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran, as he ‌warned that Washington would continue to hit the country hard.

www.reuters.com

 

[Altair]

If the global economy grinds to a halt, the world will be at war.

Like I said, either the impact won't be as bad as some are predicting, or the world will act.

There is no scenario where the global economy grinds to a halt without response, because a few religious wack-jobs with weapons were too much for the rest of the world to handle.

The West is still comfortable for now, so it doesn't feel a need to act. When it gets uncomfortable enough, some dudes are going to have a chance to meet their maker. Human nature hasn't changed, our access to resources has... take away access, and many of those evil colonizers from Europe and Asia will rediscover their love of conflict/conquest.

The global economy grinding to a halt will make the west commit to a land war of regime change in Iran?

How about this?

America isn't wanting to fight a land war in Iran, and most nations would revolt if their leaders joined Trump in his war.

So name me who is going to get up, spool up their militaries, get a coalition going, and try to take enough land in Iran to prevent the IRGC from closing the SOH?


Canada?

Germany?

France?

Spain?

Italy?

Poland?

The UK?

Who, in the world, do you believe in your heart of hearts, is going to WAR to do what Trump wont do?

 

[Furniture]

The global economy grinding to a halt will make the west commit to a land war of regime change in Iran?

How about this?

America isn't wanting to fight a land war in Iran, and most nations would revolt if their leaders joined Trump in his war.

So name me who is going to get up, spool up their militaries, get a coalition going, and try to take enough land in Iran to prevent the IRGC from closing the SOH?


Canada?

Germany?

France?

Spain?

Italy?

Poland?

The UK?

Who, in the world, do you believe in your heart of hearts, is going to WAR to do what Trump wont do?

You are not talking about the same thing I am. The West/World doing something, doesn't mean a protracted land war in Iran.

Doing something is escorting ships through, and striking targets until Iran and the Houthi learn that more can be gained by talking than shooting.

Also, in your fantasy land where the global economy halts with no response from the world, what makes you think governments wouldn't fall regardless of a land war in Iran? Why would anyone trust a government that let its national economy fail, regardless of the initiating cause?

You're predicting a world where people are starving and poor, but don't act because "Trump bad"?

 

[brihard]

You're right... it's hopeless, that part of the world is out of bounds forever. Abandon all hope. I'll start collecting leather clothing bits in preparation for our Mad Max future.

Either the impact will be far less than some of you are predicting, or the world will act. You can't have it both ways.

You can make the same points without stomping your feet. It doesn’t make any of what you’re saying stronger or more well founded.

Can the Houthis seriously constrain shipping through BaM? Yes. Probably more easily than a couple years ago.

Can they do so reasonably selectively if they wish? To some extent yes, though I think insurance companies will err on the side of caution, and even selective targeting will not yield equally selective consequences.

Can the world forcibly, kinetically stop these threats enough to restore normal shipping? I don’t think so. And despite being upset by my last post, I don’t see you claiming they can either.

Can the world do other stuff to try to understand the various motivations and incentives of the Houthis and to try to impact their decision making? Maybe. Not sure. Probably. Doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll go for it.

I think at this point Iran is starting to flex the Houthis as a reminder that further escalation against supply chains is within their reach. The threat presented by the Houthis must be understood in the larger context of the broader conflict Iran is embroiled in, as well as the need the a Houthis face to keep some allies on their side in their own territorial and existential conflict.

There simply may not be an easy, quick, or low cost way out of this. There are ways out, I’m sure, but they may be short to mid term painful.

 

[Altair]

You are not talking about the same thing I am. The West/World doing something, doesn't mean a protracted land war in Iran.

Okay, good to get some clarification.

Doing something is escorting ships through, and striking targets until Iran and the Houthi learn that more can be gained by talking than shooting.

The USA is doing the striking to no great effect. As for talking, they have talked back and forth repeatedly, who is going to get Iran OR the USA, OR Isreal to listen?

As for escorting ships, again, it's something even the US navy wont do. And the logistics of it, as far as I have read, is 8 escorts for a convoy of 5 ships. So 100 ships a day, needs what, a around the clock force of 160 warships?

Again, name your nations who will commit enough ships to get to 160 warships escorting freighters under fire through the SOH.

Also, in your fantasy land where the global economy halts with no response from the world, what makes you think governments wouldn't fall regardless of a land war in Iran? Why would anyone trust a government that let its national economy fail, regardless of the initiating cause?

Of course governments will fall. But they would fall regardless of whether they join any effort to open the SOH.

You're predicting a world where people are starving and poor, but don't act because "Trump bad"?

I'm predicting the 3rd world starves and the rich world suffers from astronomical oil prices because Trump decided that he could "make a deal"

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Iran has no direct way to resupply the Houthi's, plus the Houthi have lost much of the international aid they once received, their port and airport are wrecked. They only have what they have and what they can scrounge up.