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Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

brihard said:
She knows her shit and was well respected in challenging portfolios, including procurement and defence, by people I know (and trust) who are senior enough in the military to have a clue on those things. Whether in government or opposition, she’s a knowledgeable and mature voice at the table.
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That's a decent shout out.

I was going to make a comment saying now that thw Conservatives aren't guaranteed an election win, and the spectre of investigations aren't hanging over Liberal MPs, we'll probably see more "spend time with family" MPs change their mind about not running.

Looks like that isn't the case with her but I'm willing to bet it's accurate for a lot of her peers.
 
Abacus has been an outlier to the benefit of the CPC for the past several months. Looking at ‘poll over poll’ within single firms, this still shows a 7% slide for CPC over about two weeks since the last Abacus poll.

I put little stock in any of the pollsters’ bottom line numbers, but the trend remains very consistent.
 
brihard said:
Abacus has been an outlier to the benefit of the CPC for the past several months. Looking at ‘poll over poll’ within single firms, this still shows a 7% slide for CPC over about two weeks since the last Abacus poll.

I put little stock in any of the pollsters’ bottom line numbers, but the trend remains very consistent.
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Yep.

Eric Grenier had a decent breakdown yesterday.

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

Poll Tracker

If an election were held today, who would win? The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. Get the latest numbers and analysis on where the political parties stand from Éric Grenier.
newsinteractives.cbc.ca newsinteractives.cbc.ca

LPC is nowhere near winning yet but the CPC has slipped into minority territory. Only a 50% chance and getting a majority.

All this subjects to change as an election looms.
 
Remius said:
Latest from 338 aggregate.

338canada.com

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com 338canada.com

The gap is closing yet and it looks like the CPC is trending in minority territory according to the seat distribution were an election to happen today.
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And the latest Ipsos poll - 22 days since their last one - shows the same trend towards a significant LPC gain. Ipsos went from a CPC +13 at the start of Feb to an LPC +2 now. Ipsos tends to be pretty good.

As always, I have interest in the trends, not so much the final numbers. I don’t think there’s any question that the LPC have seen a significant swing and have regained a fair bit of support since Trudeau announced he’ll resign and since Trump began talking trade war.

338canada.com

Canada polls | 338Canada

338canada.com 338canada.com

suffolkowner said:
with those numbers i wonder if the Liberals can remain in government?
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Due to vote efficiency and FPTP voting, the LPC can generally win a seat count even if their popular support trails CPC a small amount. I think we’re clearly getting to the point where what you ask is possible. We’re definitely out of the certain CPC win of a few months ago.

But the LPC do not yet have a leader, and campaigns count.
 
brihard said:
But the LPC do not yet have a leader, and campaigns count.
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I've hears this a few times and find it an interesting point of view.

Politicians will tell voters anything they want to hear in order to win the election. Every politician, not just one side or colour.

Campaigns? Personally one of the last things I would listen to is whatever someone says on the campaign trail. Especially new promises (50% raise to the CAF lol)
I would sooner look at someone's history of promises and behavior. What they've kept and what they've broke. FPTP and the budget balancing itself comes to mind.

If Carney was Poilieveres CPC replacement and campaigning I think Liberals and left-wing Canadians would be going berserk over this rich corporate final-boss type trying run Canada. But this heavy weight rock star is on their side so now he's Trudeau 2015. Funny how that works.

I don't think campaigns matter in so far ad changing people's minds. I think they just give people an opportunity to justify picking a candidates they're going to pick anyways.
 
See where Harper has joined the clamor against Carney, denying that he had anything to do with maintaining financial stability in Canada in the 08 crunch: he attributes it all to his finance minister at the time. Carney is looking less and less like our saviour every day.
 
YZT580 said:
See where Harper has joined the clamor against Carney, denying that he had anything to do with maintaining financial stability in Canada in the 08 crunch: he attributes it all to his finance minister at the time. Carney is looking less and less like our saviour every day.
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Except it's counter to everything he said until recently, it's all politics
 
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