... The Liberals started to look and feel really burnt out and exhausted this week. Of course they’re burnt out and exhausted. It’s been a hellish two years for everyone, and they were dealing with the Trump circus for years before that. They haven’t usually looked exhausted, though. Even when they have no doubt been running on adrenaline, existential terror, caffeine and digestive bile, they kept running. That's not sustainable forever, though, and sooner or later, a government slips into the terminal phase of democratic politics. We've all seen that before, and we recognize the signs when we see it.
(list of various recent Team Red stumbles/screw ups)
We do not make the mistake of underestimating Justin Trudeau‘s political abilities. The federal Conservatives have never been able to look beyond their personal dislike of the man and recognize his formidable talent. Justin Trudeau is a very, very good politician. The Liberal Party of Canada is very, very good at politics. Never count these guys out. We aren't, and won't. They'll fight every election ferociously.
Again, it’s very possible they all just need a break. If the government can drag its carcass across the finish line and make it to the summer, everyone will go home for a bit, see their spouses and children, rest up, hit the barbecue circuit for a while, and come back in the fall recharged. The media will soon shrink to a complete skeleton staff as the dozen or so remaining journalists in this country all try to rotate off onto holidays of their own. So the scrutiny the Liberals are under will tank epically in the next week or so. This will give them time. Maybe that's all they need. It’s possible.
But it’s also possible that the whiff of death will grow into a ranker stench. Again, we make no predictions. Life is way too weird these days to invest much of our credibility, such as it is, in doing that. But we can’t help but wonder as we watch the news of late whether, two or three years from now, if the Liberals are defeated, some of the reporters writing their analyses and columnists writing the political obituaries won’t reflect back on June 2022 as being the moment that things tipped over, and the long, slow glide into the side of the mountain began ...