Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[CBH99]

I'm reminded of the old adage...

Canadians vote governments out, not in.

Should PP win a majority, people will be expecting a lot.

I think PP recognizes the absolute horde of problems he is going to inherit when he becomes Prime Minister crossing my fingers and trying to manifest it to reality here

At this point, so much catastrophic damage has been done by Justin, whoever becomes PM immediately after him will have no choice but to spend their entire first term fixing everything that JT has broken.

I personally think JT is ruining the country on purpose, which means the next PM's job will be even more arduous)




Posted today in the NP...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-fall-economic-statmenet-2023-1.7035098

 

[CBH99]

wow...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1726405873264697590

"Better double down and defend all these policies the entire country hates! Cuz THAT'LL keep us in power!" - Someone in the LPC must have said this as guidance to the party, at some point...

 

[CBH99]

Edit - Deleted

 

[Navy_Pete]

A good decision in my opinion when you look at the definition of "toxic".

Canada court overturns government ruling that some plastics are toxic

A Canadian court on Thursday struck down a regulation classifying some plastic products as toxic, a ruling that could hurt a push by Ottawa to ban single-use plastic items like bags, straws and forks.

www.reuters.com

What was funny about the single use plastic ban, was that it also impacted degradable, plant based plastics, which have a lower environmental impact than the reusable plastic bags even when lifespan is taken into account.

Meanwhile scissors meant for opening the really hard, single use plastic security packaging still comes in single use, plastic security packages so it's like some kind of tool inception.

 

[Haggis]

wow...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1726405873264697590

So, what? The next election is 23 months hence. A week is a helluva long time in politics.

This housing thing is the first of the pre-Christmas announcements. There will be more.

 

[YZT580]

So, what? The next election is 23 months hence. A week is a helluva long time in politics.

This housing thing is the first of the pre-Christmas announcements. There will be more.

but, as per normal, everything is kicked down the street for two or three years. She is setting up the next finance minister with a ton of obligations and no say in the matter

 

[ModlrMike]

This is why Tory times are hard times. It's not because the Torries can't control the budget, it's because of the sh!t show that came before.

 

[Halifax Tar]

This is why Tory times are hard times. It's not because the Torries can't control the budget, it's because of the sh!t show that came before.

I've said as much many times on here.

Taking over from this Gov is going to a gargantuan task. PP needs to act quick and do some little things that will keep he base happy.

 

[YZT580]

I've said as much many times on here.

Taking over from this Gov is going to a gargantuan task. PP needs to act quick and do some little things that will keep he base happy.

AND he needs to start now, outlining how his government intends to dig us out of this manure pile, areas that they will focus on e.g. immigration, green subsidies (those he can get out of). Doing it after the fact will cost him. Is Jagmeet getting ready to drop the ax do you think? His Global interview stating that Canadians' needs have not been met gives him a clear path to dropping the agreement and possibly picking up some liberal seats. If he waits, Trudeau will prorogue parliament and rule by fiat for 6 months as Harper did.

 

[Kirkhill]

This is why Tory times are hard times. It's not because the Torries can't control the budget, it's because of the sh!t show that came before.

I seem to recall Mulroney facing protests from Seniors his first year in office (1984) because he tried to reverse programs that had been larded on by Trudeau just before the election.

 

[Halifax Tar]

AND he needs to start now, outlining how his government intends to dig us out of this manure pile, areas that they will focus on e.g. immigration, green subsidies (those he can get out of). Doing it after the fact will cost him. Is Jagmeet getting ready to drop the ax do you think? His Global interview stating that Canadians' needs have not been met gives him a clear path to dropping the agreement and possibly picking up some liberal seats. If he waits, Trudeau will prorogue parliament and rule by fiat for 6 months as Harper did.

Its hard to make promises about fixing things when you haven't seen behind the curtain yet...

Those kinds or promises or campaign pledges tend to turn out to be fodder when Govs establish and they find out things are worse than reported.

 

[Brad Sallows]

This is why Tory times are hard times. It's not because the Torries can't control the budget, it's because of the sh!t show that came before.

Looking at the projections for budget deficits for the next 5 years, I suppose the Liberals are expecting to lose the next election and are doing their best to f*ck things up for the next government. That it will f*ck things up for most Canadians seems to be irrelevant to them.

 

[Haggis]

Looking at the projections for budget deficits for the next 5 years, I suppose the Liberals are expecting to lose the next election and are doing their best to f*ck things up for the next government. That it will f*ck things up for most Canadians seems to be irrelevant to them.

Which is why the expected/hoped for CPC majority will likely be a one term government. Trudeau is setting up Poliviere for failure.

 

[Kirkhill]

The federal debt has doubled from $619.3 billion in 2015-16, the first year of Trudeau's government, to $1.2 trillion last year. It's expected to climb to $1.4 trillion by 2028-29

Now, with interest rates at a 20-year high, the cost to borrow all that money has spiked from $20.3 billion in 2020-21 to $46.5 billion in this fiscal year. The debt service charges will march even higher in the years ahead. Carrying the debt is expected to cost the federal treasury $60.7 billion in 2028-29, according to the economic statement.

That means debt service charges are now among the most costly line items in the federal budget.

To put that in perspective, Ottawa will spend $28.9 billion on the Canadian Armed Forces this fiscal year — about $18 billion less than what the government will send in payments to the banks and bondholders carrying Canada's debt.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-fall-economic-statmenet-2023-1.7035098#:

A pacifists dream -

Canadians
35.44 million (2014)
40,097,761 on July 1, 2023
Statistics Canada

2015 debt $619,300,000,000
2023 debt $1,200,000,000,000

2015 debt per capita $17,474
2023 debt per capita $29,926

2023 debt interest per capita $1,159

Multiply those numbers by 2.59 to get household debt in 2023.

2023 debt per household $77,508
2023 interest per household $3,002


Some other relevant stats.


2014 unemployment rate 6.7%
2023 unemployment rate 5.53%

2022 Deaths -323, 220
2022 Emigration -49,769
2022 Disappearance Rate -372,989

2022 Births 351,679
2021 Abortions -87,485
2022 Pregnancies 439,164

2022 Immigration 437,180

2022 Non-Permanent Residents 607,782


1965 Life Expectancy 71.66
2022 Life Expectancy 82.96

CPP initiated in 1965

1965 Time on the plan 6.66
2022 Time on the plan 17.96

1965 Birth Rate per 1000 22.245
2022 Birth Rate per 1000 10.148


Bottom line problem.

More people drawing pensions for longer (and needing more medical attention) with fewer kids to support them.

 

[Remius]

Latest aggregate from 338.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Seat count projections.

CPC maintaining. Liberals up a fraction (but still bottom barrelled). Looks like from the BQ.

This lasts week’s shenanigans have likely not been captured in the polling and will likely only show up in next week’s polling data (will show if anything really mattered or not).

 

[Halifax Tar]

Latest aggregate from 338.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Seat count projections.

CPC maintaining. Liberals up a fraction (but still bottom barrelled). Looks like from the BQ.

This lasts week’s shenanigans have likely not been captured in the polling and will likely only show up in next week’s polling data (will show if anything really mattered or not).

I still take issue with the Bloc's share of the seats for only 7% of the vote. Its absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Eaglelord17]

I still take issue with the Bloc's share of the seats for only 7% of the vote. Its absolutely ridiculous.

PEI has 156k pop and 4 federal seats to its name.

If seats were evenly distributed by population they would have 1-1/4 seats (about one seat per 113k). This also means some areas end up much less represented per capita (generally out west) to make up for some areas being over represented.

 

[Halifax Tar]

PEI has 156k pop and 4 federal seats to its name.

If seats were evenly distributed by population they would have 1-1/4 seats (about one seat per 113k). This also means some areas end up much less represented per capita (generally out west) to make up for some areas being over represented.

I'm talking more about their over representation when balanced against their volume of the popular vote.

You have 7% of the population getting more of a voice than 19%. If the 338canada.com link that was posted was the final outcome of an election.

I'm not an NDP'r, I have voted orange in the past though, and that should be a sticking point for them. Especially since the the NDP can claim to represent people from coast to coast, while the Bloc is just a regional party with no pan Canadian representation. To me it makes a mockery of our electoral system and only acts as a disruptor.

My apologies for the derail.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I'm talking more about their over representation when balanced against their volume of the popular vote.

You have 7% of the population getting more of a voice than 19%. If the 338canada.com link that was posted was the final outcome of an election.

I'm not an NDP'r, I have voted orange in the past though, and that should be a sticking point for them. Especially since the the NDP can claim to represent people from coast to coast, while the Bloc is just a regional party with no pan Canadian representation. To me it makes a mockery of our electoral system and only acts as a disruptor.

My apologies for the derail.

People who want to keep running that conversation ought to stop comparing the BQ as if it were a national vote share. Compare its performance to the provincial voting performance of other parties. For example, what fraction of the national vote do the LPC get in QC, and how many seats do they get for that?

[Add: from Wikipedia (2021 election), in QC:

BQ : 32.1% of vote, 32 seats
LPC: 33.6% of vote, 35 seats
CPC: 18.6% of vote, 10 seats
NDP: 9.8% of vote, 1 seat

The performance of the weaker parties is just the usual side-effect of FPTP. Can we please bury the "BQ gets too many seats for its vote share" myth for all time?]

 

[QV]

FIRST READING: Why Canadaâs debt problem is worse than Ottawa is letting on

In addition to its rising federal debt, Canada has one of the highest sub-sovereign debt loads on earth

nationalpost.com