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Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

This was posted on Friday regarding,

Canada body urges govt action after US halts worker visas for truck drivers: ‘Must view this as a wakeup call’​


 
Bit of a tight rope to walk for any government of any colour.

We're SO tied to the U.S. economy and military that there's no "switch" to cut them off to zero, it takes time (years, not weeks or months) to build up new markets elsewhere (which'll never be able to replace all of the U.S. market), so checking every week saying, "are we there yet?" can become a partisan exercise for either side: "WTF?!?!? Nothing's happening 77 days in!" vs. "Hey, these things take time."

And a lot of critics of the government on trade also seem keen on seeing continued ties with the U.S. and increased defence spending, so how do you balance that against having to look elsewhere for stuff?

Same with any government transition: the same people who attack party x for "why the ever-loving Christ have they not done anything yet after x months in?!?" are often the same people who support party y in the same position, saying "hey, it takes time to learn the ropes for a new PM, especially after z f@!#$%^&*(ed it up as royally as they did beforehand." All in the eye of the beholder ...
I guess I am of simple thought...

The Government of Canada, for all it's very deliberate messaging about prioritizing "Made in Canada" and "Canada First!" - not to mention the very public "Review of the F-35 file!' - apparently needed to buy some armoured high mobility vehicles... (not sure if the purchase here is smaller part of a bigger project to replace the vehicle fleet? Or if these were requested by CANSOF?)

Either way, for all that deliberate messaging about putting Canadian companies first & keeping that money flowing inside of Canada, the government then turns around and seems to sole source from an American company a vehicle that I suspect could have been built by Roshel (or a few other Canadian companies) fairly easily...

...


All the government messaging about looking to other markets to supply our defence needs, reviewing the F-35 contract, approaching Europe to be included in their "Europians Only!" spending spree...


...

Jst to be clear, I don't have any real familiarity with this project and I think the whole "Boycott America!" movement is pretty silly when it comes to military kit. So I'm not opposed to this by any means, and certainly not on those grounds.

$160M for approx 60 vehicles seems steep though, even if that includes instruction manuals & initial train-the-trainer training (say that 10 times fast...) & whatever else is included.

Maybe reasonable, I don't know. But it seems like a steep price tag for the number of vehicles being acquired.




Also, if anybody can clarify, did DoD pull the plug on the JTLV altogether? Or did they just pull the plug on the initial version, but the A2 model is now being produced?

Mods feel free to move this to a more appropriate thread. My apologies. I posted it here initially because I was looking at the bigger picture politically, but definitely the wrong thread for it
 
I guess I am of simple thought...

The Government of Canada, for all it's very deliberate messaging about prioritizing "Made in Canada" and "Canada First!" - not to mention the very public "Review of the F-35 file!' - apparently needed to buy some armoured high mobility vehicles... (not sure if the purchase here is smaller part of a bigger project to replace the vehicle fleet? Or if these were requested by CANSOF?)

Either way, for all that deliberate messaging about putting Canadian companies first & keeping that money flowing inside of Canada, the government then turns around and seems to sole source from an American company a vehicle that I suspect could have been built by Roshel (or a few other Canadian companies) fairly easily...

...


All the government messaging about looking to other markets to supply our defence needs, reviewing the F-35 contract, approaching Europe to be included in their "Europians Only!" spending spree...


...

Jst to be clear, I don't have any real familiarity with this project and I think the whole "Boycott America!" movement is pretty silly when it comes to military kit. So I'm not opposed to this by any means, and certainly not on those grounds.

$160M for approx 60 vehicles seems steep though, even if that includes instruction manuals & initial train-the-trainer training (say that 10 times fast...) & whatever else is included.

Maybe reasonable, I don't know. But it seems like a steep price tag for the number of vehicles being acquired.




Also, if anybody can clarify, did DoD pull the plug on the JTLV altogether? Or did they just pull the plug on the initial version, but the A2 model is now being produced?

Mods feel free to move this to a more appropriate thread. My apologies. I posted it here initially because I was looking at the bigger picture politically, but definitely the wrong thread for it
pretty sure the 60 JLTV are the result of the competitive process to replace CANSOF Humvees. $3M per all in
Roshel will get its chance with the LUV-SMP
 
I guess I am of simple thought...

The Government of Canada, for all it's very deliberate messaging about prioritizing "Made in Canada" and "Canada First!" - not to mention the very public "Review of the F-35 file!' - apparently needed to buy some armoured high mobility vehicles... (not sure if the purchase here is smaller part of a bigger project to replace the vehicle fleet? Or if these were requested by CANSOF?)

Either way, for all that deliberate messaging about putting Canadian companies first & keeping that money flowing inside of Canada, the government then turns around and seems to sole source from an American company a vehicle that I suspect could have been built by Roshel (or a few other Canadian companies) fairly easily...

...


All the government messaging about looking to other markets to supply our defence needs, reviewing the F-35 contract, approaching Europe to be included in their "Europians Only!" spending spree...


...

Jst to be clear, I don't have any real familiarity with this project and I think the whole "Boycott America!" movement is pretty silly when it comes to military kit. So I'm not opposed to this by any means, and certainly not on those grounds.

$160M for approx 60 vehicles seems steep though, even if that includes instruction manuals & initial train-the-trainer training (say that 10 times fast...) & whatever else is included.

Maybe reasonable, I don't know. But it seems like a steep price tag for the number of vehicles being acquired.




Also, if anybody can clarify, did DoD pull the plug on the JTLV altogether? Or did they just pull the plug on the initial version, but the A2 model is now being produced?

Mods feel free to move this to a more appropriate thread. My apologies. I posted it here initially because I was looking at the bigger picture politically, but definitely the wrong thread for it
and what good are 60 vehicles? Shouldn't we be placing orders in the hundreds. Russian losses in one week in February were over 130 units. Now granted we are not in a ground war and we don't require them yet but when we do, having 60 won't cut it.
 
The same thought process goes into those usual NDP voters who voted for PP in the last election and very well may switch back over to the NDP if their next leader is charismatic and says the right things.
From what I understand, it was the private unions, trades people and trade unions that flocked to the CPC last election, while the socialist flocked over to the Liberals.
The NDP would need to really appeal to the hands on, get 'er done crowd labourers.

The fact they started their leadership race selection with some weird parity of no more than 50% men with each delegation does make me concerned they may not be heading in the right direction.

Now, if my friend Tony makes a serious run for the leadership, he could help attract some of the folks I mentioned.

Your right, either way, the NDP stands to come back or be turned into the next green party.
 
I'm keeping an eye on whether they sell their building in downtown Ottawa. I know they leverage it to borrow money to run campaigns, on the assumption that they will get their campaign funds reimbursed. But seeing as they are not getting reimbursed for the majority of their spending last election, do they sell it for a quick influx of cash just to keep the lights on in the "party".

Certainly true. By that same token however, if someone had told the CPC in 2021 that the next election would be in April 2025, they wouldn't have believed you. Minority governments may not be the most stable thing ever, but in the right circumstances they can last quite a while.

Could they be voted out? Absolutely. If I were the NDP holding the balance of power and with the financial Armageddon facing them...why?

It would take all three opposition parties to gang together to down the LPC.

CPC, always flush with cash and generally cantankerous, sure, a given.

Bloc, not as flush with cash, but they need to run in 78 ridings only and I've not heard anything about them being hard on for money.

NDP...dead broke. Not recovered in the polls. Leaderless. Don't even have party status.

Do they even run in 343 ridings next election? Do they just focus on ridings they think they can win? Are they a true federal party if they only run in 25-75 ridings? Can they afford to have another result like the last one they just had? Will either the LPC or CPC win a majority stripping them of any semblance of leverage as a party?

It's fun, I guess, to imaging Carney forced into another election right away, but I really, truly, don't see the NDP rushing into political and financial suicide as a party. Unless that changes, Carney can pretty much coasts for the next 2 years, probably 3.

I really don't see Carney as some high stakes gambler. Man is 3 seats away from a majority, why risk it all? Not impossible, but also not likely.

Absolutely. Could last 6 more months. Could last 4 years.
I will say this. I thought the Canadian political landscape would settle for 1-2 years after the April election.

However, I think we are back to the Wild west of Canadian politics again, and no one has the crystal ball to see exactly what happens.

Parties will have to zig when they need to zig and not zag. When opportunities are created by ourselves or foreign leaders/events, the leaders will need to pounce on them quickly to exploit the situation.

So Bloc minority government it is next election. Not serious, but who knows?
 
I really don't see Carney as some high stakes gambler. Man is 3 seats away from a majority, why risk it all? Not impossible, but also not likely.
Might effectively make up (ish) three seats if there's a rupture in the CPC and some people end up sitting as independents.
 
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