Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[HavokFour]

I still maintain that Carney and the LPC aren't going to risk it on a spring election.

Federal Tracker: Liberals Widen Lead to 8, 42% to 34%

January 26 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals continuing to pull away from the Conservatives, widening their lead to eight points. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives' 34%, with the NDP at 10% and the Bloc...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

Abacus for Jan 22-27, 2026

Vote Intention
Liberal: 43%
Conservative: 39%

Leader Impressions
Carney: +23
Poilievre: -6

Government Approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 31%

New Abacus Poll: Prime Minister Carney’s Standing Improves as Liberals Strengthen Ahead of Conservative Convention - Abacus Data

A new Abacus Data poll finds Mark Carney’s approval at a record high as Liberal support strengthens ahead of the Conservative convention.

abacusdata.ca

Interestingly one of the few demographics that Poilievre has a positive impression (30 to 44), Carney is practically keeping pace (9% vs 10%). AB, MB and SK are doing a ton of heavy lifting for him. Liberals also appear to have largely recovered for the 18-29 range.