Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[HavokFour]

I still maintain that Carney and the LPC aren't going to risk it on a spring election.

Federal Tracker: Liberals Widen Lead to 8, 42% to 34%

January 26 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals continuing to pull away from the Conservatives, widening their lead to eight points. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives' 34%, with the NDP at 10% and the Bloc...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

Abacus for Jan 22-27, 2026

Vote Intention
Liberal: 43%
Conservative: 39%

Leader Impressions
Carney: +23
Poilievre: -6

Government Approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 31%

New Abacus Poll: Prime Minister Carney’s Standing Improves as Liberals Strengthen Ahead of Conservative Convention - Abacus Data

A new Abacus Data poll finds Mark Carney’s approval at a record high as Liberal support strengthens ahead of the Conservative convention.

abacusdata.ca

Interestingly one of the few demographics that Poilievre has a positive impression (30 to 44), Carney is practically keeping pace (9% vs 10%). AB, MB and SK are doing a ton of heavy lifting for him. Liberals also appear to have largely recovered for the 18-29 range.

 

[MilEME09]

And the greatest gift the CPC has ever given the liberals...

Poilievre survives leadership review with 87% support after rousing campaign-style speech

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has handily survived the biggest test of his leadership since he took the helm of the party in September 2022.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm firmly team Gripen.

Team ITAR did you say?

Imagine…”DSCA has announced that Congress has not approved Canada’s request to procure a fleet of ITAR-controlled Saab JA-39 fighter jets.”

And this means the only deal he’s interested in with us, the only one he sees as a ‘win’, is where he walks away with more and we walk away with less, rather than one where we trade more freely, innovate more freely, and we each make the most of our respective advantages.

Dmitri Peskov is pleased with such a collaborative description.

Interestingly one of the few demographics that Poilievre has a positive impression (30 to 44), Carney is practically keeping pace (9% vs 10%). AB, MB and SK are doing a ton of heavy lifting for him. Liberals also appear to have largely recovered for the 18-29 range.

Still time to give them something to think about at the next CPC policy conference when limited abortion legislation via private member bills makes the list of policies to discuss.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Only one data point, but survey says: trade over human rights OK as priority dealing with China (for first time since tracking).

Shifting perspectives: More Canadians now prioritize trade opportunities over China’s human rights record - Angus Reid Institute

Most view Canada’s recent deal with China as a good one (65%) rather than a bad one (22%) January 29, 2026 – Political economy isn’t a zero-sum game, but relationships ebb and flow. The best evidence of this in 2026 is Canada’s re-engagement with China as the traditional foundation of economic...

angusreid.org

Whatever could have caused that start of a shift late last year?

 

[The Bread Guy]

On Team Blue, Nanos has an interesting short- and long-term tracking of the party's fortunes over different leaders since Harper available (released before the leadership ratification vote). Full report attached, but here's some highlights ....


... as well as the loooooooong term party popularity tracking since Harper & Co.:

 

[Navy_Pete]

Team ITAR did you say?

Imagine…”DSCA has announced that Congress has not approved Canada’s request to procure a fleet of ITAR-controlled Saab JA-39 fighter jets.”

Moves like this is how you get point rated criteria to knock off points if the equipment includes ITAR listed components. The intent makes sense, the execution is terrible and way over reaching (ie down to common fasteners, o-rings etc).

It also means that non-Amercian companies will deliberately stop selecting American products for their weapon systems because they don't want to be hamstrung by a foreign government, so limits the export market for defence firms..

 

[Jarnhamar]

Team ITAR did you say?

Imagine…”DSCA has announced that Congress has not approved Canada’s request to procure a fleet of ITAR-controlled Saab JA-39 fighter jets.”

One defence to this I've seen a few times is the idea we can just make those parts ourselves.

 

[MilEME09]

On Team Blue, Nanos has an interesting short- and long-term tracking of the party's fortunes over different leaders since Harper available (released before the leadership ratification vote). Full report attached, but here's some highlights ....
View attachment 98218View attachment 98216
View attachment 98217
... as well as the loooooooong term party popularity tracking since Harper & Co.:
View attachment 98219

I had almost forgotten how close things were before Jack Layton passed away. I still believe that if he had won his battle with cancer that he would of won the election.

 

[Navy_Pete]

I had almost forgotten how close things were before Jack Layton passed away. I still believe that if he had won his battle with cancer that he would of won the election.

I think the NDP would do a lot better if they got back to their farmer/labourer roots. Paying people fairly for the work they do and treating them fairly when you get good/bad times goes a long way towards a lot of the social justice issues they get sidetracked with now.

Both the NDP and CPC are still crazy about identity politics; it's nice that Carney seems to be dragging the LPC away from that and focusing on getting things done. People complaining about the pace of it are drastically underestimating the level of effort involved and the complexity of it, especially when you get into international relations, complex procurements etc.

 

[Remius]

Both the NDP and CPC are still crazy about identity politics; it's nice that Carney seems to be dragging the LPC away from that and focusing on getting things done. People complaining about the pace of it are drastically underestimating the level of effort involved and the complexity of it, especially when you get into international relations, complex procurements etc.

Carney is playing a longer game it seems. That takes time. The CPC and supporters are in “he hasn’t done anything” mode because they are stuck in election cycle policy making as opposed to long term thinking.

It’s refreshing to see a more long term approach.

 

[MilEME09]

Carney is playing a longer game it seems. That takes time. The CPC and supporters are in “he hasn’t done anything” mode because they are stuck in election cycle policy making as opposed to long term thinking.

It’s refreshing to see a more long term approach.

12 agreements signed internationally that will likely start fielding results by year end. If we see continued economic growth despite a US trade war, it will play well for him.

 

[PrairieFella]

The reflexive anti-Carney/Liberal crowd seems to view this "strategic partnership" as an indication that Canada is totally abandoning our existing relationship with the US and leaping into bed with the CCP instead.

I personally see it as Canada strategically entering trade relationships with a variety of countries on an issue by issue basis where it serves Canada's needs. I take this view from things PM Carney said in his Davos speech.





In fact the PM has specifically stated that there is no intention of seeking a free trade deal with China

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-canada-trump-tariff-threat-china-trade-9.7060150

"Why isnt Carney getting trade deals?"

Gets trade deal with world's second largest economy which will disportionately help Western Canadians

"Not like that!"

 

[Jarnhamar]

"Why isnt Carney getting trade deals?"

Gets trade deal with world's second largest economy which will disportionately help Western Canadians

"Not like that!"

It's like size ratio of when you’ll swim in water with dead bodies. You wouldn't swim in a pool with deal animals in it, but you will in a lake.

In the case of China we're willing to ignore the security risks, human abuse, and threats to our own citizens for the greater good(aka financial benefits).

It's perfectly understandable when you drop the concern for human rights nonsense.

 

[MilEME09]

It's like size ratio of when you’ll swim in water with dead bodies. You wouldn't swim in a pool with deal animals in it, but you will in a lake.

In the case of China we're willing to ignore the security risks, human abuse, and threats to our own citizens for the greater good(aka financial benefits).

It's perfectly understandable when you drop the concern for human rights nonsense.

I mean we do it for Saudi and others sooo not really unprecedented