Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Halifax Tar]

When was the last time they were polling that low?

The party is already courting disaster. The leader is in a weak position with party discipline seemingly a mess.

Psychologically that poll number could trigger a leadership crisis with caucus either pushing for change or more floor crossing or departures.

The LPC a minority could rule as a majority knowing the CPC won’t defeat them on a confidence motion with polls that low. Oh they can play silly buggers at comitee like they have but The LPC could also go seek a new mandate with an election which would be problematic for the CPC.

The one caveat is that this is just one poll. It would have to be across the board.

Changes need to be made within the CPC.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Changes need to be made within the CPC.

Did you mean to say "Chainsaws need to come out within the CPC?"

 

[IKnowNothing]

Changes need to be made within the CPC.

That's a tough road to hoe when (overly simplified) half the CPC potential voter pool thinks that Mark Carney is essentially a suitable PC PM that is unfortunately beholden to different elements of the left wing tent, and the other half thinks that Mark Carney is just like Justin and that the first half are libtard traitor sellouts that owe the 2nd half their votes.

Edit- it's actually more like 3rd's.

• 1/3rd that sees Carney as above but would consider voting for him despite his being beholden to certain LW interests (if the CPC that doesn't have something better on offer
• 1/3rd that sees Carney as above but won't vote for him, can't forgive the LW influence/ policy elements
• 1/3rd that sees Carney as the LW socialist enemy, the 1st 3rd as traitors, and a leader that the both the 1st and 2nd 3rds would be happy with as a CINO sellout

 

[Jarnhamar]

The one caveat is that this is just one poll. It would have to be across the board.

Calling low polling numbers a disaster seems a bit hyperbolic though. The CPC won't cease to exist of the LPC convince enough turn coats to cross the floor.

The CPC ha survived LPC majorities in the past. The real disaster will come from which allies Canada courts. I think the irony there will be LPC voters blaming CPC for not being more viable to them.

 

[Remius]

Calling low polling numbers a disaster seems a bit hyperbolic though. The CPC won't cease to exist of the LPC convince enough turn coats to cross the floor.

I didn’t say that in of itself is a disaster. But it could also be one part that leads the party to more division and possible fracturing.

The CPC ha survived LPC majorities in the past. The real disaster will come from which allies Canada courts. I think the irony there will be LPC voters blaming CPC for not being more viable to them.

It also fractured a few times and spent a long time in the wood figuring itself out. I suspect that is where they are headed again.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I think the irony there will be LPC voters blaming CPC for not being more viable to them.

Why is that irony?

If a given centre-right voter sees JT and PP as opposite sides of the same unserious, ideologically driven, performative coin and as such rates them at say, 1 and 2 out of 5 respectively, and the same voter sees Carney as a 3.5/5 whose points are lost for being a little too spend happy and beholden to the gun and other social issues in the LPC tent- why would it be ironic for that voter to resent the CPC for not giving them an equally serious and competent candidate that comes without the LPC baggage?

 

[Navy_Pete]

That's a tough road to hoe when (overly simplified) half the CPC potential voter pool thinks that Mark Carney is essentially a suitable PC PM that is unfortunately beholden to different elements of the left wing tent, and the other half thinks that Mark Carney is just like Justin and that the first half are libtard traitor sellouts that owe the 2nd half their votes.

Edit- it's actually more like 3rd's.

• 1/3rd that sees Carney as above but would consider voting for him despite his being beholden to certain LW interests (if the CPC that doesn't have something better on offer
• 1/3rd that sees Carney as above but won't vote for him, can't forgive the LW influence/ policy elements
• 1/3rd that sees Carney as the LW socialist enemy, the 1st 3rd as traitors, and a leader that the both the 1st and 2nd 3rds would be happy with as a CINO sellout

Which is interesting, especially as Carney is actively rolling back the greening policies that a lot of people on all ends of the spectrum thought were aspirational at best, and actively harmful in practice.

He easily could be leading the old PC party just as easily as the current LPC party, while ignoring the SJW types focused on identity politics and some of the die hard enviromentalists. Harper did the same thing with the CPC by actively suppressing the abortion/religious wing and focusing on the economy and management of the government. Honeslty seeing Guildebrault quit was a mark in the plus column to me; he was way to focused on a single goal at the cost of all else, and had zero interest in offsetting the massive impact the policies will have.

And I'm a firm believer in both climate change and that the oil and gas economy being non-sustainable, bleeding yourself out now isn't the way to go about it, so really prefer the deliberate approach of actively going for alternatives, and using O&G to develop that future tech as a much better option. Although as a chem eng, all of the green techs and IT improvements still rely heavily on petrochemicals, so just because we aren't burning it don't actually see any way to stop producing oil, so even with all this greening we'll still hit a wall somewhere when the oil reserves start being used up.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Which is interesting, especially as Carney is actively rolling back the greening policies that a lot of people on all ends of the spectrum thought were aspirational at best, and actively harmful in practice.

He easily could be leading the old PC party just as easily as the current LPC party, while ignoring the SJW types focused on identity politics and some of the die hard enviromentalists. Harper did the same thing with the CPC by actively suppressing the abortion/religious wing and focusing on the economy and management of the government. Honeslty seeing Guildebrault quit was a mark in the plus column to me; he was way to focused on a single goal at the cost of all else, and had zero interest in offsetting the massive impact the policies will have.

And I'm a firm believer in both climate change and that the oil and gas economy being non-sustainable, bleeding yourself out now isn't the way to go about it, so really prefer the deliberate approach of actively going for alternatives, and using O&G to develop that future tech as a much better option. Although as a chem eng, all of the green techs and IT improvements still rely heavily on petrochemicals, so just because we aren't burning it don't actually see any way to stop producing oil, so even with all this greening we'll still hit a wall somewhere when the oil reserves start being used up.

If Carney was the leader of the PC and was the PM today, I'd be quite happy with how things are going, what has occurred so far and the direction the ship was moving in.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I didn’t say that in of itself is a disaster. But it could also be one part that leads the party to more division and possible fracturing.

That's true. Wouldn't say thats a disaster, maybe evolution.

 

[Navy_Pete]

If Carney was the leader of the PC and was the PM today, I'd be quite happy with how things are going, what has occurred so far and the direction the ship was moving in.

Me too, but seems like with a lot of people the reverse isn't true, just because he's leading the LPC.

He seems to be imposing his vision fairly directly and slowly dismantling some of the Team Trudeau (tm) outliers and taking them back to center.

I really just want a fiscally responsible, socially liberal GoC, and don't particularly care what colour their banners are. With how centralized power and influence is in the PMO, which really ramped up with Harper, I think it matters less what the big tent thinks then what the party leader takes onboard, and I think a lot of the outliers in the LPC will either be happy with some common ground and compromise, or break off and go to NDP/Green party but in numbers too small to make a difference and be largely irrelevant.

On the social safety net side of things, there is actually a pretty good business case for things being overall cheaper for the governement to do ongoing support vice emergency support, so also shouldn't really be a conservative/liberal thing in my POV, and really just a dollars and cents thing, that benefits both citizens on the margins as well as the rest of the population.

 

[Jarnhamar]

If Carney was the leader of the PC and was the PM today, I'd be quite happy with how things are going, what has occurred so far and the direction the ship was moving in.

I probably would too minus China going from public enemy #1 to besties after a few handshakes and smiles.

I'd also demand my MP push for an investigation into the circles him and his spouse ran in, and whose shoulders they rubbed with.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Why is that irony?

Avoiding accountability.

"You made me do this because you didn't do something".

 

[The Bread Guy]

Bigger picture to give some aggregate context & history (since 2022) on the latest polling, via Canada338

Canada polls | 338Canada

338canada.com

 

[IKnowNothing]

Avoiding accountability.

"You made me do this because you didn't do something".

Ironic answer to one of the two questions in the post. What of the 2nd?

 

[Czech_pivo]

I probably would too minus China going from public enemy #1 to besties after a few handshakes and smiles.

I'd also demand my MP push for an investigation into the circles him and his spouse ran in, and whose shoulders they rubbed with.

I understand what you're saying but I would not characterize things as 'besties' at this point. I think that the China are on notice that if they fuck around going forward with them that they will be burning bridges with the EU, Australia, etc in terms of being seen as a potential viable trade alternative to the US. They have been put on notice for certain.
Canada will not become the new Australia, which has about 20% of its overall trade with China, their #1 trading partner. But I see nothing wrong with us going from 5% of our trade with China to 10% - if its managed accordingly.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Ironic answer to one of the two questions in the post. What of the 2nd?

You injected the word resent. To me that strayed beyond what I was speaking about.

 

[IKnowNothing]

You injected the word resent. To me that strayed beyond what I was speaking about.

Treat it as interchangeable with blame.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Treat it as interchangeable with blame.

People always find reasons to assign blame to others for their own decisions.

 

[IKnowNothing]

People always find reasons to assign blame to others for their own decisions.

Except it's not blaming others for the decision- it's blaming others for the negative aspects of what is/was perceived as the best option, because said others could have provided a better option without the negative aspects but chose not to.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Except it's not blaming others for the decision- it's blaming others for the negative aspects of what is/was perceived as the best option, because said others could have provided a better option without the negative aspects but chose not to.

You're outsourcing responsibility. If you recognize the option has serious negative aspects and choose it anyway, that trade off belongs to you. You can criticize the alternatives as much as you want, just don’t shift accountability for the consequences of your own vote onto the people who didn’t design a candidate you prefer.