Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Czech_pivo]

Your not but many others are. Not just ordinary people. Plenty of people in the energy industry have said it over and over again.


Could not tell you the specifics, I don't work in the office, but many in Alberta have said, the leg work has been done and re-done

I guess you haven't seen the news lately where it was stated PM MC faiuled to meet the Alberta MOU deadline?

Typically in the business world unrealistic timelines are created and set. Why? In order to create some sense of urgency, deliverables and expectations and to hold some feet to the fire. When these things come down the line from the C-suites, those with experience know that the timeline is a farce and that its completely unobtainable, useless some powerful pixy dust is applied. So, what everyone does is, hold the appropriate meetings, discuss the deliverables, arrange them in order of importance and nature sequencing and assign individuals to those deliverables and then walk away and let the process begin. After the first few weeks/months the deliverables start to slip because they were never realistic to begin with, possible cuts to the deliverables are discussed and the project goes from 'Green' to 'Trending Yellow', but the end date does NOT change. A few more weeks/months go by and the project status has moved from 'Trending Yellow' to 'Yellow' status and the C-suites start to sit up and notice. The project is then 'rebased lined' and a new delivery date is then established. At this point it can go either way - the new timeline is actually achievable IF everyone pulls their own weight and no inside politics take over OR the new timeline is still completely out to lunch.

We are at the point on the MOU's with Alberta where the 're-baselining' will be occurring. As I mentioned above, from here it can go either way - actual achievable timelines are created or unrealistic, unachievable ones will again be set.

 

[ArmyRick]

And for reference, Trudeau/CARNEY's Anti-energy laws

"Key legislation and policies described by critics as "anti-energy" include:

• Bill C-69 (2019): Established a new Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act. It expanded assessments to include environmental, health, social, and economic impacts, which critics argued added insurmountable delays and uncertainty to infrastructure projects.
• Bill C-48 (2019): The Oil Tanker Moratorium Act banned oil tankers carrying over 12,500 tonnes of oil from stopping at ports on British Columbia's northern coast, effectively preventing projects like the Northern Gateway pipeline.
• Bill C-12 (2020): The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act enshrined into law the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050, requiring a significant shift away from fossil fuels.
• Clean Electricity Regulations (2023): Draft regulations intended to phase out the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2050.
• Oil and Gas Subsidies Phase-Out: A move to eliminate "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies, with a deadline set for 2025."

 

[ArmyRick]

We are at the point on the MOU's with Alberta where the 're-baselining' will be occurring. As I mentioned above, from here it can go either way - actual achievable timelines are created or unrealistic, unachievable ones will again be set.

Without Trudeau era stuipid laws (That Carney won't repeal) the MOU would be unnecessary

Your awfully optimistic but if past behaviour of the Trudeau-Carney Liberals is any indication it will be glacially paced ir there is any movement at all

 

[ArmyRick]

Mods, should some of these recent post made be bumped over to Pipelines thread?

My point here was priorities of HSR vs Pipelines for the LPC not to deep dive into pipelines

 

[brihard]

Whatever. I don't care how you view my statement. Period. I took the time to do a quick google AI search and a shit ton of projects are showing at various near ready states (from just waiting government greenlights to do have some more leg work), I was going to quote it. Then I stopped. Alot of work to copy and paste, then I decided F it, better way to address it, in your own statement.

Ok so name one that’s ready to progress save for federal regulatory approval please. I did and it wasn’t hard to find- though blind reliance on AI may not get you there.

PREVIOUS Government? Those regulations (shackles) are STILL THERE. And PM MC is NOT using C5 to override them or by pass them.

Yes, previous government. There’s been quite a bit of turnover and a very clear change in political will and policy approaches.

And for reference, Trudeau/CARNEY's Anti-energy laws

"Key legislation and policies described by critics as "anti-energy" include:

• Bill C-69 (2019): Established a new Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act. It expanded assessments to include environmental, health, social, and economic impacts, which critics argued added insurmountable delays and uncertainty to infrastructure projects.
• Bill C-48 (2019): The Oil Tanker Moratorium Act banned oil tankers carrying over 12,500 tonnes of oil from stopping at ports on British Columbia's northern coast, effectively preventing projects like the Northern Gateway pipeline.
• Bill C-12 (2020): The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act enshrined into law the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050, requiring a significant shift away from fossil fuels.
• Clean Electricity Regulations (2023): Draft regulations intended to phase out the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2050.
• Oil and Gas Subsidies Phase-Out: A move to eliminate "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies, with a deadline set for 2025."

Prime Minister Carney was neither a member of Parliament nor a member of the government for any of those. The law that has passed during his tenure - C-5, you mentioned it - included establishing the MPO, which is simply awaiting a tabled proposal for an oil pipeline at this point, and which is already considering a major LNG project. Again, that’s the one I mentioned by name.

I’ll also point you to the ‘one project, one assessment’ agreement the Feds and Alberta have recently reached under PM Carney and minister Hodgson. That’s a major, major policy shift for environmental and impact assessments from the Feds.

Co-operation Agreement between Alberta and Canada on Environmental and Impact Assessment - Canada.ca

Co-operation Agreement between Nova Scotia and Canada on Environmental and Impact Assessment

www.canada.ca

 

[daftandbarmy]

Ok so name one that’s ready to progress save for federal regulatory approval please. I did and it wasn’t hard to find- though blind reliance on AI may not get you there.



Yes, previous government. There’s been quite a bit of turnover and a very clear change in political will and policy approaches.




Prime Minister Carney was neither a member of Parliament nor a member of the government for any of those. The law that has passed during his tenure - C-5, you mentioned it - included establishing the MPO, which is simply awaiting a tabled proposal for an oil pipeline at this point, and which is already considering a major LNG project. Again, that’s the one I mentioned by name.

I’ll also point you to the ‘one project, one assessment’ agreement the Feds and Alberta have recently reached under PM Carney and minister Hodgson. That’s a major, major policy shift for environmental and impact assessments from the Feds.

Co-operation Agreement between Alberta and Canada on Environmental and Impact Assessment - Canada.ca

Co-operation Agreement between Nova Scotia and Canada on Environmental and Impact Assessment

www.canada.ca

And, like anything else in the world of permit approvals, if the boss says 'speed things up and get it out the door' that's what the staff will do - laws be damned (kind of)...

 

[ArmyRick]

Ok so name one that’s ready to progress save for federal regulatory approval please.

Used Google AI so take with a grain of salt (subject to errors)

Key "Ready-to-Go" / Nearing Operation Projects:

• [LNG Canada Phase 1 (Kitimat, BC)]: Expected to begin exporting liquefied natural gas by 2025.
• [Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX)]: Currently operational, this 590k bpd capacity increase is driving new Western Canadian crude oil output.
• [Woodfibre LNG (Squamish, BC)]: Anticipated to be operational by 2028, with a focus on low-emission processing.
• [Cedar LNG (Kitimat, BC)]: A high-performance, low-emission project anticipated for 2028.
• [Bay du Nord Oil Project (NL)]: Offshore project recently moving ahead to signal Newfoundland's continued role in oil production.

Major Projects Recently Added for Fast-Tracking:

• LNG Canada Phase 2: Aims to double production, recently referred for accelerated review.
• Ksi Lisims LNG: A major new project in BC touted as one of the world’s lowest-emission, second-largest LNG facilities.
• Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project: An 800-kilometre line intended to supply feedstock to Ksi Lisims LNG.

Major Infrastructure & Expansion Projects:

• Coastal GasLink Pipeline: Nearing completion, this connects gas supplies to the Kitimat LNG terminal.
• Enbridge & Trans Mountain Optimizations: Ongoing upgrades to existing pipelines to boost capacity through artificial enhancements like drag-reducing agents.
• Tilbury Marine Jetty: Proposed marine jetty expansion in Delta, BC.

Yes, previous government. There’s been quite a bit of turnover and a very clear change in political will and policy approaches.

Has there been a change in political will? That is your opinion, period. Previous government? Pretty much the same, different head man. Bill C5 created and remains unused for oil and gas.

Prime Minister Carney was neither a member of Parliament nor a member of the government for any of those.

Great, get rid of those of bills and blame it on Trudeau/"previous government". After all its "dangerous and divided world"

establishing the MPO

Time will tell if this slows things down even more or it actually speeds them up. In my OPINION, I don't think it is going to speed anything up.

 

[ArmyRick]

And, like anything else in the world of permit approvals, if the boss says 'speed things up and get it out the door' that's what the staff will do - laws be damned (kind of)...

Political WILL is the key term. When any government really wants things to happen, the speeds at which it moves is amazing.

 

[Mick]

Danielle Smith says Alberta and Ottawa on the same page at Houston energy conference

Premier Danielle Smith says the relationship Alberta has with the federal government feels more positive and that it’s been years since she’s seen this level of collaboration.

www.ctvnews.ca

Danielle Smith seems pretty pleased with the Carney government's approach, compared to its predecessor. Hard to claim that the current government and its O&G policy is simply a continuation of the Trudeau approach. A few excerpts:

---

"Premier Danielle Smith says the relationship Alberta has with the federal government feels more positive and that it’s been years since she’s seen this level of collaboration."

"I don’t think I’ve seen so much collaboration with the feds since I got elected – and it’s probably been over a decade since we saw that kind of collaboration, so that’s very positive."

"Smith said almost all of the “nine bad laws” have been addressed by Ottawa -- they’re still fighting out one on plastics in court -- but did acknowledge that the proof for most Albertans will see is movement on a proposed new pipeline to the west coast.

“We are going to put in a submission for west coast pipeline -- a million barrels a day -- by June, ” she said. “We want the Major Projects Office to give the go ahead to start the approvals by the end of the year and then when we identify -- the public will see which port we’re identifying -- that’s where we’ll look for the carve outs to take place so that’s part of our MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) agreement.”"

---

Seems like there is optimism in the Premier's office, and progress being made in getting to the submission stage for a new pipeline.

It also sounds like Smith has a good working relationship with Energy and Natural Resources minister Tim Hodgson.

Edited for spelling

 

[ArmyRick]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-ottawa-mou-missed-deadlines-9.7149141

"The energy deal stipulated that Alberta's industrial carbon price would eventually reach $130 per tonne, and Smith said how quickly that price is reached is what is still being negotiated."

"Smith pointed to other jurisdictions, like the United States, that currently don't have carbon pricing systems, and said they are more attractive investment environments."

"..Smith said she didn't want to see Alberta ramp up its price to $130 per tonne too quickly."

Just a few tidbits to consider. Its not there yet. And for god sakes DROP the f-ing carbon pricing, its BS.

And look at me, quoting CBC of all news agencies.

 

[Quirky]

"Smith pointed to other jurisdictions, like the United States, that currently don't have carbon pricing systems, and said they are more attractive investment environments."

Carbon pricing is probably the dumbest thing canada has implemented. Just pure lunacy.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Used Google AI so take with a grain of salt (subject to errors)

Key "Ready-to-Go" / Nearing Operation Projects:

• [Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX)]: Currently operational, this 590k bpd capacity increase is driving new Western Canadian crude oil output.

I've already pointed this out about a week ago - its full steam ahead on this expansion - they have already moved up the timelines on this. By early 2028, TMX will be producing 1.3m/barrels a day in oil. That's greater than 23% of all oil that Canada exports a day.

The 2yr timeline is the time if physically takes to build/install all the additional pumping stations needed along the pipeline. There is nothing stopping this from occurring other than the owners of the pipeline spending the money to make it happen.

 

[ArmyRick]

There is nothing stopping this from occurring other than the owners of the pipeline spending the money to make it happen.

Carbon pricing an impact at all? Other fees?

 

[ArmyRick]

Carbon pricing is probably the dumbest thing canada has implemented. Just pure lunacy.

Pure cash grab and a vote grab of the "greens" thinking voters. I wish people got it through their heads carbon not evil. It is simply a life essential element

 

[Czech_pivo]

Carbon pricing an impact at all? Other fees?

Trans Mountain will be at capacity by next month, April, over 18+months ahead of schedule.

That capacity will be at 890,000 barrels/day.

They are spending another 9$ million (which is absolute peanuts) by Jan 2027 to add 'drag reducing agents' that will increase the flow by 10%. That will bring the number of barrels/day to 979,000.

In addition, they are constructing more pumping stations that will be completed in 2028. That will add another 360,000 barrels/day to the pipeline.

By the 2028 Trans Mountain will be shipping 1,339,000 barrels/day to the docks for shipping somewhere in the world.

At 70$ USD/barrel that's 93.7m USD/day or 34.2b USD a year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bakx-tmx-trans-mountain-oil-pipeline-full-ceraweek-9.7142587

 

[ytz]

To those who say, "We have other priorities.". We're about to get a nice preview to how the public reacts to a proposal to increase defence spending while cutting everything else:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039758703503556810

 

[ArmyRick]

To those who say, "We have other priorities.". We're about to get a nice preview to how the public reacts to a proposal to increase defence spending while cutting everything else:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039758703503556810

What does this have to do with the minority Liberal government here?