Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[Kirkhill]

I have been to France 12 times in the past and on Friday my wife and I fly out to Montpellier for my 13th trip to France.
My French is just above basic and it’s what I’ve learned here in Canada. I use it extensively when I’m in France and I have never once been ‘looked down on’ when I speak it. Maybe during my 12 previous visits (which have ranged from a long weekend when I lived in Belgium to the 23 day trip across the entire west side of the country during the first time we took our 10 and 12yr old kids), I’ve managed to not meet those that you have, that made you feel inferior for speaking Québécois.
The French that I’ve met in the towns and smaller cities throughout France are some of the nicest, friendliest people I’ve ever encountered. If they weren’t I wouldn’t have wasted my vacation time and money going so many times over the decades.
I’ll post a follow up after our visit to Montpellier and the areas south-west of there where we are going to scout out possible winter retirement options in the future.

Par Montpellier on ne parle pas le francais. On parle l'occitane.

 

[MilEME09]

Canada NewsBusinessCanada

Why Canada, with huge gas reserves, is buying it from Australia​

<In a particularly potent illustration of the dysfunction of the Canadian energy sector, Canada is now importing natural gas from Australia despite sitting atop one of the largest gas reserves on earth.

This week, an LNG tanker called the Maran Gas Hector pulled into an LNG import terminal in Saint John, N.B., after charting a 25,000 km course direct from Gladstone, Australia.>

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Couple things the article doesnt mention is that the TC mainline provides the majority of gas to Eastern canada. Ive also found a couple articles mentioning its actually cheaper for eastern canada to import gas from the US, and others then the cost of importing gas from BC and western canada.

A difference of thousands of kilometers closer of US shale gas vs western canada gas makes it more about economics than anything.

 

[The Bread Guy]

bit of a change. We found that the French were generally hospitable except for those from Paris and they even looked down their noses at someone from Dijon

Ah, the New Yorkers of France

Yes and I'm curious to see what Montpellier and Beziers will be! The area from Montpellier to Bezier to Perpignan to the Spanish border is the last large area of France that I've not been so I'm curious to see if they are chocolatine or pain au chocolat. I'm really hoping that I can find my most favourite French pastry somewhere in the area. Its called a 'Sacristain' and its typically found only around Saint-Remy-de-Provence/Vaucluse area.

Pretty close to all the other maps dividing France into chocolate-laminated-pastry enclaves

I think this is worth mentioning. Javani very recently removed all mention of being a CPC member from his X.

Maybe some news soon, possibly Monday?

https://x.com/jamiljivani

View attachment 98842

Ooooooh - maybe the post-trip chat didn't go as planned? What appears to be the riding association's page hasn't changed - as of this post, yet, anyway ....

Bowmanville Oshawa-North Conservative Association

bonconservatives.ca

A quick screen capture for ... posterity?

Interesting to see what happens next.

 

[Deleted member 175000]

Out of curiosity I checked Internet Archive back as far as November, no obvious CPC branding in his website that far back other than colour scheme.

I would be surprised to see him break with the party. There’s nowhere else for him to go that would improve his fortunes. He’s not gonna go LPC, and the PPC would be a joke if they were relevant enough to even still be thought of. His realistic best bet is some leadership role within one of the CPC factions and fight it out for prominence post-Pierre. Not that that’s a great spot to be in either… But he won’t keep that MP pay and pension under any other branding.

Devils advocate:

For a rookie with no material role in caucus he's done a great job building a personal brand and getting national airplay. If he doesn't like the direction of the pivot towards moderation and statesmanship that Poilievre is (finally) showing, sitting as an independent to be able to toot his own horn without whip or restriction might just set him really well to do the bolded, and Durham is a conservative enough seat that a prominent independent running on a True Blue - PP is a sellout message couldn't be written off.

 

[Remius]

Devils advocate:

For a rookie with no material role in caucus he's done a great job building a personal brand and getting national airplay. If he doesn't like the direction of the pivot towards moderation and statesmanship that Poilievre is (finally) showing, sitting as an independent to be able to toot his own horn without whip or restriction might just set him really well to do the bolded, and Durham is a conservative enough seat that a prominent independent running on a True Blue - PP is a sellout message couldn't be written off.

The man had a nationally syndicated radio show. He had a personal brand well before the jump into politics.

 

[Deleted member 175000]

The man had a nationally syndicated radio show. He had a personal brand well before the jump into politics.

Yes, exactly. The amount of space he takes up in the public discourse and the reach of his voice far outstrips his political role and seniority.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Yes, exactly. The amount of space he takes up in the public discourse and the reach of his voice far outstrips his political role and seniority.

Ego? As a driver? For politicians? So young to be so cynical

Meanwhile, coming up ....

Trump and Carney speak as Liberal government proposes debate on Iran war

Liberal House leader Steven MacKinnon says Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has proposed to debate the turmoil in the Middle East on Monday evening, following a weekend meeting of ministers that discussed the issue.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Deleted member 175000]

Ego? As a driver? For politicians? So young to be so cynical

While there might be ego or ideological chafing, IMO they wouldn't be the main driver. Moreso the idea that Jamil Jivani the public figure might be better served in a hypothetical CPC coupe by being Jamil Jivani the outspoken Independent Maverick than Jamil Jivani the muzzled backbencher.

 

[The Bread Guy]

While there might be ego or ideological chafing, IMO they wouldn't be the main driver. Moreso the idea that Jamil Jivani the public figure might be better served in a hypothetical CPC coupe by being Jamil Jivani the outspoken Independent Maverick than Jamil Jivani the muzzled backbencher.

Some could say Leslyn Lewis has a bit of potential for this approach, too, but she seems to be staying put (as far as we know, anyway).

 

[Halifax Tar]

Some could say Leslyn Lewis has a bit of potential for this approach, too, but she seems to be staying put (as far as we know, anyway).

I saw a poll today that had the CPC down to the 60s in seats.

Its a free fall, I will call it.

 

[dapaterson]

I saw a poll today that had the CPC down the 60s in seats.

Its a free fall, I will call it.

It's a combination of soft CPC voters shifting in ridings where the CPC is competitive, and the exodus of NDP voters to the LPC.

It's exacerbated by the inefficient vote distribution of the CPC.

 

[HavokFour]

Leger.

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Leger_FedPol_EN_March2026.pdf

Liberals reach 49% voter support and the party's biggest lead in 10 years: Leger poll

However, the same poll also said nearly half of Canadians don't want an election until 2029.

nationalpost.com

Archive

Getting wider.

Every alarm bell should be going off in the CPC with how close the Liberals have gotten to them in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

https://storage.ghost.io/c/5a/2c/5a2c6702-fc8c-4232-bdc0-33fad8d71a80/content/files/2026/03/2026.03.09---Federal-Tracker.pdf

Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 14

March 9, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new national survey from Liaison Strategies shows the federal Liberals have established a significant 14-point lead over the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters with 44% support. The Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Conservatives in second place at...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

 

[MilEME09]

Getting wider.

Every alarm bell should be going off in the CPC with how close the Liberals have gotten to them in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

https://storage.ghost.io/c/5a/2c/5a2c6702-fc8c-4232-bdc0-33fad8d71a80/content/files/2026/03/2026.03.09---Federal-Tracker.pdf

Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 14

March 9, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new national survey from Liaison Strategies shows the federal Liberals have established a significant 14-point lead over the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters with 44% support. The Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Conservatives in second place at...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

CPC is nose diving, at this rate they will be at 25% national support within a few weeks, and be wiped out in urban areas

 

[HavokFour]

$900 million for defence innovation in Canada, including money for drone technology with Bombardier.

Feds announce nearly $1 billion for domestic defence innovation, including Bombardier aircraft

As the federal government seeks to bolster its domestic defence industry, Industry Minister Melanie Joly announced more than $900 million for defence innovation in Canada, including money for drone technology with Bombardier.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Remius]

CPC is nose diving, at this rate they will be at 25% national support within a few weeks, and be wiped out in urban areas

With no election on the horizon and time they can recover.

But it will likely mean changes.

 

[The Bread Guy]

338Canada's take into the "survey says" mix ....

 

[brihard]

338Canada's take into the "survey says" mix ....
View attachment 98874

338’a projections tend to be a quite lagging indicator; takes a while for significant swings to manifest. So, yeah…

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Apparently, after

There are a few French communities in northern France and along the Normandy coast where you would think you were in Lac St-Jean or any other more isolated Quebec village.

Apparently, when the French-Canadian soldiers landed in France during/after the Normandy landings they had no problems speaking with the locals. Same dialect and everything.

 

[RangerRay]

I can’t seeing anything changing until the government starts seriously messing up or failing to make progress on what the voters expected this PM to do. That might be a while.

If we have an election before this happens, it almost seems unfair to me for the Tories to dump PP when they lose. It’s almost like he won’t have a chance of turning things around before the government starts to lose its lustre.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... If we have an election before this happens, it almost seems unfair to me for the Tories to dump PP when they lose. It’s almost like he won’t have a chance of turning things around before the government starts to lose its lustre.

There's also a case that he had a chance to clearly and consistently change course right after Carney took over, too.