Stepping away from the 2025 election results for Brantford-Brant South riding (Trump was the big wild card and in my opinion was the key influence in that election and Jagmeet crapped the bed huge taking the NDP mostly out of play)
In the previous 2021 election it was
-CPC 26,668
-LPC 18,784
-NDP 12,950
-PPC 5,634
-Green and Indys 2,000 or so
So this is potential battle ground. That being said, it depends on who the NDP runs, as you can see from the 2021 election result, they were a major factor in this riding.
Former Mayor Kevin Davis is well known and very popular for some and strongly disliked by others. He is the CPC candidate. Their is also a former Conservative running as an independent.
The LPC started massively campaigning last week in the riding so everyone knew the by elections were being called very soon.
As Warren Kinsella says "Which party gets their base out the strongest will win" .
That being said, if this riding is lost, many are saying the party may ask Pierre to step down (some of you are pretty excited about that prospect).