Liberal Party of Canada Leadership

[Edward Campbell]

In the category of not news we find this report which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/trudeau-to-seek-liberal-leadership-reports/article4568675/

Trudeau to seek Liberal leadership: reports

STAFF
The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Sep. 26 2012

Liberal MP Justin Trudeau, the son of a popular former prime minister, will announce next week that he wants to lead the Liberal Party of Canada, according to a report in La Presse.

Mr. Trudeau will end months of speculation next Tuesday in his Papineau riding, the newspaper reports based on information from Liberal sources.

The 41-year-old former school teacher has represented the Montreal riding since 2008.

While the Liberals held majority and minority governments for most of the 16 years Pierre Trudeau led the party, it fell to third place in the 2011 election and was reduced to 35 seats in Parliament.

The race to replace interim Liberal leader Bob Rae officially begins Nov. 14 and ends April 14, 2013.

The party recently announced that leadership candidates would have to pay a $75,000 entry fee and their campaign spending would be capped at $950,000.

More to come

Please: let's restrain the personal attacks on M. Trudeau ~ he has had the courage to put himself up for election, something very, very, very few of us have the guts to do (one member to my certain knowledge, maybe two or three others); and he has been elected by his fellow citizens, Canadians like us, who had choices.

There is more to the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada than just the candidates. The party has avoided the painful business of self evaluation and self criticism; perhaps that's not surprising, it's hard to do, harder to do well, and, generally, unpleasant: so why not just go with what worked before, charismatic leadership?

Young M. Trudeau has charisma ~ he's telegenic and is part of a royal family of sorts. In my opinion the Liberals are smart to stay with alternating English and French leaders (Laurier - King - St Laurent - Pearson - Trudeau - Turner - Chretien - Martin - Dion - Ignatieff/Rae ...) but I suspect that there are other, equally or more able francophone Liberals out there who would not have as many negatives as M. Trudeau (his name, which earns respect in some parts of Canada (where the Liberal 'brand' is already strong) is still mud in other parts (where Liberals are in danger of losing some of the few seats they hold), his slender resume and his tendency to speak before thinking).

 

[GAP]

They (The Liberals) need a common sense plodder with some  charisma and a whole lot of common sense.

Credibility in the Liberal Party right now is sadly lacking. I don't see Trudeau improving on that. In fact, he seems to fall into the same pattern as Martin, Dion and what's his face..... :

 

[ModlrMike]

Justin Trudeau is not his father, nor does he face the same political/economic/social conditions as his father did. To suggest that he will see the same success as his father is shallow thinking at best, at worst is plays into the messiah meme. I agree with others here that there are very capable francophone MPs who would make good leaders to rebuild the Liberal party (Domenic Leblanc for one).

I'm still curious to know how far along the last round of candidates are in repaying their loans. Last we heard, several were still owing quite a lot. There needs to be some push back from Elections Canada, or whoever governs this issue (not the party), that the Liberals get this sorted out before they hold another leadership race.

 

[a_majoor]

Based on my own knowledge of various candidates and candidate wannabe's, I can only think of two who might make the cut in terms of being actual useful leaders:

Martha Hall-Findley; who actually produced a policy study recently on Marketing boards (although looking at the study it was strange to see it coming from her and not some CPC functionary). Downside; still hasn't paid off the loans for the last Liberal Leadership race.

Marc Garneau: Canadian astronaut with a very impressive resume. Downside; don't really see much from him in the way of detailed policy, although his real role would be to select good policy ideas and move them through caucus.

Various other political luminaries exist (although it is interesting that most of the high profile Liberals from the 1990's seem to have evaporated, even as kingmakers or senior advisors), but I know even less about them. At any rate, it will be interesting to see how people do once the spotlight has been turned on them. I am also curious as to the emerging role of the blogosphere; few contenders will be able to evade searching questions from that source even if the legacy media only sends puffballs their way.

 

[fraserdw]

I think Trudeau would be little than a John Braid chew toy.  Garneau has the best shot at pulling something together, none of the others have large backing in the party but the Liberals tend toward the Messiah approach for their leaders, they will probably go with Trudeau.

 

[Nemo888]

Trudeau is just a name. It is a party that has no soul. They don't have an idea left in their heads. Branded  as PC Light or NDP Light. Nobody likes light beer or light salad dressing.

The Liberal Party is little more than a focus group and a logo.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is John Ibbitson's take on Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-as-leader-is-the-liberals-best-and-worst-hope/article4568779/

Justin Trudeau as leader is the Liberals’ best and worst hope

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Sep. 26 2012

Justin Trudeau’s decision to enter the Liberal leadership race is the best news the Liberal Party has had in years, and the worst.

Mr. Trudeau – who was widely expected to run, despite his reluctance to disrupt his family life – will announce his candidacy next week, the Globe’s Bill Curry reports.

The Member for Papineau brings assets to the race so formidable that he instantly becomes an almost prohibitive favourite.

There is the storied name, of course. For better or for worse, family dynasties are often a fact of life in democracies. The name Trudeau is to Canada what the name Kennedy was to the United States. The parallel is far from exact, but it’s close enough to matter. A lot.

Then there is the fact that Mr. Trudeau’s roots are in Quebec. A fundamental reason for the collapse of the Liberal Party is its alienation from French Canada, traditionally an indispensible pillar of support.

If Mr. Trudeau goes on to win the leadership, Thomas Mulcair will have a formidable rival competing for the 50-plus seats that went NDP in the last election.

But his greatest asset is the instinct factor. Humans are genetically wired, when first meeting a stranger, to form an instant impression. This helped our ancestors to judge whether the new arrival was a potential ally or enemy, whether fight, flight or friendship were called for.

Justin Trudeau has the ability to make people like him instantly. It’s more than the hair or the smile; it’s an intangible ability to charm. You have it or you don’t, and he has it like few people in this country. For a politician, there can be no more powerful asset.

But the young aspiring leader is also potentially a great danger to his party. He lacks, for one thing, any real experience leading a complex organization, and the Liberal Party is, if nothing else, complex.

Not just complex: atomized, disorganized, unpopular and broke. It would take a leader with the skill, patience and steadiness of a Stephen Harper to weld its disparate parts together and then lead it against a foe as intimidating as Stephen Harper.

Mr. Trudeau is closely associated with a set of values that were championed by his father. But do those values fit the times? Do we want a Big Canada, with a more powerful federal government, new national programs, stronger environmental and social protections? Or do we want a government, like the current government, that simply minds the store?

And if Justin Trudeau’s Big Canada values do resonate, that leave us with the unanswered question of what specifically he wants to do with the country and how he would do it.

While the Trudeau name may evoke nostalgic affection in the East, it remains anathema in the West. Choosing Pierre Trudeau’s son as leader may alienate the party from the Prairies and British Columbia for another generation. Do Liberals want to be that ostracized from the part of Canada that embraces the country’s future, its potential?

Finally, having Justin Trudeau in the Liberal leadership race may doom that race. Other credible contenders may decide it’s not worth the effort and expense to fight so prohibitive a favourite, leaving the young champion only fringe candidates to contend with.

This leadership race must provide the Liberal Party with a new purpose for being that Canadians can embrace. A coronation for Justin Trudeau could be its death knell.

In short, the Liberal Party is being offered a politician with little experience, organizational acumen or concrete ideas for where he would take a troubled party if its leadership were entrusted to him.

That an individual with such a slender C.V. could be considered so strong a contender speaks to the fragility of the organization he seeks to lead.

Except there is that ineffable quality that makes anyone who meets him, or even listens to him, want to like him. You can’t bottle that, or teach it. You have it or you don’t. Justin Trudeau has it in spades.

How far will it take him?

My initial guess is that Trudeau is a shoo-in for the job but that it, the Liberal leadership, will be his undoing. Both Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair are tough, battle hardened, veterans of the wars in the political trenches. They will smear M. Trudeau with one hand and then pummel him with the other: it will not be nice to watch. M. Trudeau's charisma and personality will make him nearly irresistible to young Canadians (the ones who don't vote) but middle aged and older Canadians will have no trouble resisting his charms, especially after Harper and Mulcair expose his rumoured lack of "bottom," as the Brits say.

Who's a better choice? Marc Garneau for the short term and Dominic LeBlanc for the long term.

 

[Journeyman]

They will smear M. Trudeau with one hand and then pummel him with the other: it will not be nice to watch.

I've dealt with ugliness before; I've been to the Oromocto Legion on a Saturday night. I think I could tough it out.  ;D  Especially as he splits the Quebec vote between Liberal and NDP, diminishing both federally.

 

[Old Sweat]

I heard Don Boudria being interviewed on CFRA last week. It was an excellent example of idol worship by someone who is old and experienced enough to know better. When asked why he was backing Trudeau, all Mr Boudria could say was that he had two degrees and had taught high school. When his father's record was compared to Justin's rather slimmer file, all Mr Boudria would say is that Trudeau the Younger had two degrees and had taught high school and had won an election in a difficult riding. If that does not typify much of the enthusiasm for him - and the depth of the thoughtful deliberation behind it - the Liberal Party is in way more trouble than even its harshest critics will admit.

Good luck to Mr Trudeau. I believe he is a genuinely nice, caring person who is bringing a water pistol to a gun fight with two hardcases who make Wyatt Earp and Doc Holliday look like Benny Hill.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And that, diminishing the NDP, is why, JM, we ought to hope that the Liberals pick the right leader and get on with the work of rebuilding the free market alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP have formed some fiscally responsible provincial administrations, along with some disasters, too, but the federal NDP is still in the hands of serious* socialists and must not gain power nationally.

__________
* "Serious" is not the right word, I know, but I like the alliteration.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I've said before, Trudeau is the best thing that can happen to the Progressive Conservative Party. Making him leader of the Liberals will ensure the CPC remains in power. Probably with a majority.

As to the rest, when Ibbitson compared the Trudeau's to the Kennedy's I pretty well quit reading.

 

[Remius]

I don't think Trudeau stands a chance in the next election.  But he likely knows that.  No, I think Trudeau is doing a now or never move.  Given his age, this is a two term thing.  It does not matter if he wins the next election, he won't, but any increase in liberal seats will be seen as a victory.  He'll take the next few years to gain some experience as a party leader and as the third party expectations will be low.  Then he'll fight the next election, and quite possibly will form the official opposition.  He'll be seen as the the guy that's bringing the liberals back from the edge.  He'll cement his experience as leader of the opposition in that term.  We know Stephen Harper will likely run next election but I doubt he'll run after that.  Who does that leave to face a contending and significantly more experienced Trudeau? Add to that voter fatigue of having the conservatives in power for so long,it is very plausible that he becomes Prime Minister by then.  Its a very calculcated move on his part.  The prize not being the 2015 election,but the one after.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I don't think Trudeau stands a chance in the next election.  But he likely knows that.  No, I think Trudeau is doing a now or never move.  Given his age, this is a two term thing.  It does not matter if he wins the next election, he won't, but any increase in liberal seats will be seen as a victory.  He'll take the next few years to gain some experience as a party leader and as the third party expectations will be low.  Then he'll fight the next election, and quite possibly will form the official opposition.  He'll be seen as the the guy that's bringing the liberals back from the edge.  He'll cement his experience as leader of the opposition in that term.  We know Stephen Harper will likely run next election but I doubt he'll run after that.  Who does that leave to face a contending and significantly more experienced Trudeau? Add to that voter fatigue of having the conservatives in power for so long,it is very plausible that he becomes Prime Minister by then.  Its a very calculcated move on his part.  The prize not being the 2015 election,but the one after.

Good analysis; makes sense to me. I wonder if the Liberals can be patient enough to give him seven years (until the 2019 election).

 

[jollyjacktar]

but middle aged and older Canadians will have no trouble resisting his charms, especially after Harper and Mulcair expose his rumoured lack of "bottom," as the Brits say.

I know the sins of the father should not be visited upon the son, but I'm damned if I'm going to give him a chance to screw me over like dear old dad did.  I agree, that the two bigger kids in the sandbox will be swiftly giving the kid an atomic wedgie and charlie horses at first contact.  Will be fun to watch.

 

[GAP]

This in the National Post

Post-approved campaign posters, slogans for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal leadership bid
Steve Murray | Sep 26, 2012
Article Link

 

[Edward Campbell]

Justin Trudeau is, if nothing else, rich fodder for columnists as this (the second in as many days) report by John Ibbitson shows ~ reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/if-trudeau-leads-will-liberals-follow/article4570953/

If Trudeau leads, will Liberals follow?

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Sep. 26 2012

When considering Justin Trudeau, Liberals must decide whether they are ready to hand their embattled party over to a new generation of leadership. And they must decide whether they are ready to stick by that new leader for six long years.

Mr. Trudeau is expected to announce next week that he is a candidate for leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. He brings more than a famous name and gorgeous hair to the contest.

If he succeeds, he will bring thousands of supporters – a recently created category that allows any Canadian to vote for Liberal leader without having to join the party formally – who will rally to a young man (he is 41) sounding the ancient political cry of hope and change.

Change from what? From a party that no longer understands Canada: the dynamism of the West; the beleaguered, defiant French in Quebec; and especially the many millions who live in the suburban cities that dominate Southern Ontario.

Those millions, many of them recent immigrants, mostly belong to a middle class that is suspicious of governments that promise to help them with health care, education and other needs, but that seem careless about protecting and promoting the businesses that make those services possible.

Stephen Harper has made it his life’s mission to connect with them, to understand them, to talk to them in their language. But this is now a second language for Liberals, and they are far from fluent.

Both political strategist Warren Kinsella (Fight the Right) and former journalist Paul Adams (Power Trap) have new books exploring what is wrong with the left and how to fix it. Both identify the core weakness of progressives in Canada: They cannot describe their values.

Everyone knows what Conservative values are: promoting self-reliance; getting government out of your face; keeping taxes low and finances sound; encouraging business growth; going after criminals, relentlessly.

The Harper government makes sure that every policy, every action, every word speaks to and reinforces those values, which the party shares with a large and loyal base. “The Conservatives have developed a core constituency with broadly shared values that distinguishes it from all of the opposition parties,” Mr. Adams writes.

But what do progressives value? Protecting the environment? Helping struggling families? What does that mean? How much would it cost? And what are the chances it would work?

The Liberals, Mr. Adams observes, are “not very good at putting themselves around the table at a Tim Hortons after the game.” If you can’t do that in the current political environment, you can’t win elections.

To this challenge, Mr. Trudeau brings a thin résumé. He has youth, a storied name, decent smarts and a certain something that makes people like him. That this may be enough speaks volumes about how low the bar is set for the job of Liberal leader.

But if he’s any good at all, he would learn on the job. His political opponents would inflict some hard lessons, his own caucus even harder ones, and the voters would take care of the rest.

If he’s any good at all, the supporters he hopes to rally to his campaign would stick with him, even when the Liberals lose the election of 2015. (It’s almost unheard of for a political party to go from worst to first in only one term.)

If he’s any good at all, the party would stick with him, too. The Liberals need to stop changing leaders after every defeat. It only increases the chances of another defeat.

The Liberal Party, if it is wise, will value one thing above all in whoever is chosen leader: the ability to speak to the suburban middle class about what they and the leader both value. That is Mr. Trudeau’s challenge. Nothing else really matters at all.

Meanwhile, over in the National Post, the discussion turns towards the Conservative leadership and John Ivison suggests that both Rona Ambrose and Jason Kenney are positioning themselves on the social conservative end of the spectrum in order to be ready for a post 2015 leadership race. He, Ivison, sees Kenney as the front runner in this very early going.

Like M. Trudeau both Ambrose and Kenney are 40ish - members of Ibbitson's "new generation of leadership."

 

[ModlrMike]

I agree that Trudeau, or whoever the next leader is, needs to lose in order to win. I don't know if they know that.

 

[Old Sweat]

And in the What's New department the Grits must be swooning over their prospects with a the new leader. This story from the National Post site is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

With Justin Trudeau as their leader, Liberals could easily win federal election: exclusive poll

Kathryn Blaze Carlson | Sep 27, 2012 1:36 PM ET


Justin Trudeau has not even formally announced his bid for the Liberal leadership, and already a poll suggests he would lead his party to power if an election were held today with him at the helm.

News broke on Wednesday that Mr. Trudeau will announce a run next Tuesday for the party’s top job when they pick a leader next April to replace interim head Bob Rae. Just hours later, Forum Research had sussed out whether his leadership could be a game-changer for the third-place party.

In an exclusive poll conducted for the National Post, Forum found if Mr. Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party and an election were held today, the Grits would win, handily, with 39% of the popular vote.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would come in second, with 32% of the vote, and the NDP — today the Official Opposition and led by Thomas Mulcair — would return to third-party status, with just 20% of the vote.

“The real news here is that Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader has the effect of taking all the wind out of the NDP’s sails,” said Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research’s president, of the 14% bump Mr. Trudeau would lend the Liberals.

Mr. Trudeau refused to answer questions from reporters on Parliament Hill on Wednesday, saying “I have nothing to announce today,” but the Quebec MP will reportedly announce his leadership intentions in his home riding of Papineau on Oct. 2 — the birthday of his youngest brother, Michel, who died 14 years ago in a B.C. avalanche.

As the son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau, one of Canada’s most contentious prime ministers, some onlookers are already questioning whether the young Trudeau, at age 40, can overcome his father’s legacy in the west and among some francophones in Quebec. Still, with the unofficial news of his bid, he is far-and-away considered the frontrunner with a massive lead.

Mr. Trudeau, who famously fought and beat Conservative Senator Patrick Brazeau in a charity boxing match earlier this year, is already a huge draw for Liberal events and fundraisers. Plus, he has a massive following on social media sites like Twitter, where he boasts 150, 993 followers — second only in number of followers among Canadian politicians to Mr. Harper, according to Politwitter.ca.

Even without the Trudeau factor, the poll found that while Mr. Mulcair has the highest net favourability rating of the three leaders, the NDP is losing some momentum, with some of its support shifting to the Liberals: If an election were held today, the NDP would win the Official Opposition spot with 30% of the vote, down from 34% when Canadians were asked about party preference on Aug. 22; the Liberals under Mr. Rae, meantime, would win 25% of the vote, up three points from last month’s poll.

“It appears the NDP surge we were tracking has subsided somewhat, and voters are more comfortable with the Prime Minister than they have been in the past,” Mr. Bozinoff said.

The poll, a telephone survey of 1,707 randomly selected Canadian adults taken on Sept. 26, is accurate +/-2%, 19 times out of 20.

 

[ModlrMike]

I think this poll fails to appreciate several things:

a. the Bloc will displace the NDP in Que;
b. the Liberals will not gain in the west;
c. both Harper and Muclair will use Trudeau as a chew toy; and
d. the messianic approach has been the most sucessful model for the Liberals.  :

 

[GAP]

I think this poll fails to appreciate several things:

a. the Bloc will displace the NDP in Que;Depending on what the PQ do to tard things up
b. the Liberals will not gain in the west; True, maybe some in BC, but the Provincial Libs are screwing that up
c. both Harper and Muclair will use Trudeau as a chew toy; so true and
d. the messianic approach has been the most sucessful model for the Liberals. Really? :